Tyler Penland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 I thought NC did pretty well. They had to close some place on the Blue Ridge Parkway(?) to sledding or it could be SNP. A little OT but they closed it to sledding because of some stuff that happened last year. People (read: idiots) parking in the road and what not.We did OK in that event but definitely less than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: A little OT but they closed it to sledding because of some stuff that happened last year. People (read: idiots) parking in the road and what not. We did OK in that event but definitely less than expected. Sorry, those comments should have been two paragraphs on my part - meaning it snowed enough for sledding, and then they also towed the people who showed up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 MRX AM disco... Between 18z-21z Monday, model soundings support the snow levels dropping to below 2,000 either by outright temperature profiles or via wet bulb zero heights. Further cooling occurs into the evening and overnight hours as well. Time height and cross section analysis shows that deep upward omega extends well above the dendritic growth zone during the afternoon and evening hours, with the low level saturated layer extending to about -20C during that same time period as well. This will support decent snowfall rates during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday, for elevations above roughly 2,000 ft MSL. Both upper forcing and saturation through the DGZ begin to wane after 00z Tue. Offsetting that will be persistent northwest H85 flow along with increasing snow ratios as the thermal profiles continue to cool, and keeping snow showers going in the higher terrain into Tue morning. But by far, the most favorable period for heavier snowfall rates will be Mon afternoon into the early evening hours. Do have some light accumulations in the TN valley Mon and Mon night, as well as in the northern Cumberland plateau. Generally speaking, expect less than an inch of snow in those areas, 1-3" in the higher terrain of southwest Virginia, and perhaps 3-5" possible in the east TN mountains. Highest snowfall totals look like they may be in the mountains from Greene county northward to eastern Washington. This looks to be where the strongest forcing will be along with the longest duration of favorable temperature and moisture profiles. No plans for any headlines just yet as even this morning`s forecast is notably different than yesterday morning. But confidence in some low elevation snowfall is increasing. By shortly after daybreak Tuesday, showers wind down completely. Dry conditions then round out the week. We`ll be cool on Tue and Tue night, but temps moderate thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6z NAM was not overly impressive at 12k resolution, but the finer resolution looked more realistic. The 6z RGEM looked better than it did at 0z. I do think higher elevations could do well relative to the system. One thing to note during Nino years is that systems can sometimes over perform. NW flow event people, this is a setup to keep an eye on. Short range models could be chasing a rabbit at this range, but MRX mentioning it is interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs Good short range run at 12z for you all for sure. A dusting IMBY would be a bonus. I think for the NW facing foothills and mountain communities....streamer city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 If it is there at 18z, I am game for a higher elevation thread just to track it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Well the soaking rains predicted earlier are all but a whimper now for this area. Another cold shot then right back to the comfortable 55-60 temps. If it’s not going to snow then I will take winter temps like that. We are approaching the coldest part of winter. I consider January thru mid February the window. After that around here the chances are higher for ice & cold rains. I am doubting winter really happens. Weather has changed for the whole world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs Right on about the 3k. It needs some adjustment irt that. It seems they overcompensated decreasing qpf output due to the regular Nam over forecasting amounts. Question is, why does that obviously show on the 3k but, not the 12 k ?.. Should on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 MRX afternoon disco... By Sunday night, the Miller A low will be working its way up the coast of the Carolinas. On the backside, lingering low level moisture and northwest flow will bring light rain Sunday night through Monday morning. The highest elevations mainly above 3500 feet will see a changeover to light snow Sunday night as temps drop. Lower elevations will stay warm enough to keep rain as the precip type. Monday morning, any lingering precip will be light as the Miller A low moves well away from the region. By Monday afternoon, a trough digging into the Ohio Valley will enhance POPs, mainly north of I-40. As temps drop late Monday afternoon, a changeover to snow is likely from the Central Tennessee Valley, Upper Plateau counties, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. Monday evening, strong northwest flow will move into the region behind the trough, enhancing snowfall for the higher elevations. Late Monday night snow will taper off as the 850 mb flow weakens. Snow totals have not changed since the last package. Light snow accumulations below half an inch will be possible for the lower elevations of NE Tennessee and SW Virginia, East Tennessee mountain foothills and Upper Cumberland Plateau counties. 1 to 3 inches likely for the higher elevations in SW Virginia. 3 to 5 inches possible in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. The best terrain forcing will be in the NE Tennessee mountains where 850 mb winds are strongest (up to 40 knots), Monday late afternoon and evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Long range ensembles look pretty decent regarding snows for eastern NA, especially just to either side of the Apps. That pattern begins about Dec 28, and is moving up in time. Transition should be Christmas week. This storm should break things up. One more ridge rolls though and then maybe 7-10 days of seasonal temps or slightly BN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Thread is open for business! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Happy hour of the 18z is winter. Is it right? It is happy hour, but I just hope the 18z passes the bottle to the next run! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Happy hour of the 18z is winter. Is it right? It is happy hour, but I just hope the 18z passes the bottle to the next run! GFS basically says what nw flow event . Hopefully it's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Well the soaking rains predicted earlier are all but a whimper now for this area. Another cold shot then right back to the comfortable 55-60 temps. If it’s not going to snow then I will take winter temps like that. We are approaching the coldest part of winter. I consider January thru mid February the window. After that around here the chances are higher for ice & cold rains. I am doubting winter really happens. Weather has changed for the whole world. I’m just glad it’s not emotionally effecting you. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 I see the GFS has it's annual "John is going to be in Chattanooga for New Years, lets have a massive snow storm" threat. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 43 minutes ago, John1122 said: I see the GFS has it's annual "John is going to be in Chattanooga for New Years, lets have a massive snow storm" threat. LOL. Ha! I forgot about that. But yes, it sure did! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Euro OP at 240 looks like a better pattern evolving: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Wow. The 12z EPS is now depicting a fairly decent winter wx patter for the last five days of its run which is the last four days of December and NYD. Here is the last 5 day 500 map and the very last day of that run. That will work. We are not looking at Weeklies now. Oddly, this is what the original weeklies sort of had. Textbook Nino BN heights over the SE. Maybe it is a bit overdone, but we are now entering the timeframe when the EPS is respectable - meaning no shoulder season. That would be quite cold under those BN heights. The GEFS is less impressed but is a similar setup. But man, that is impressive below. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Wow. The 12z EPS is now depicting a fairly decent winter wx patter for the last five days of its run which is the last four days of December and NYD. Here is the last 5 day 500 map and the very last day of that run. That will work. We are not looking at Weeklies now. Oddly, this is what the original weeklies sort of had. Textbook Nino BN heights over the SE. Maybe it is a bit overdone, but we are now entering the timeframe when the EPS is respectable - meaning no shoulder season. That would be quite cold under those BN heights. The GEFS is less impressed but is a similar setup. But man, that is impressive below. Was just looking at that a little while ago. Probably has legs this time. Definitely a snow threat last week of the month. Too bad not a few days sooner for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Was just looking at that a little while ago. Probably has legs this time. Definitely a snow threat last week of the month. Too bad not a few days sooner for Christmas. No idea if correct, but I thought that I would share! LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: No idea if correct, but I thought that I would share! LOL. Glad you did and great analysis as usual man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: Glad you did and great analysis as usual man. I don't want to raise expectations with cherry picking models, but that looks pretty similar (more extreme for sure) to other ensembles. But yeah.....that is an insane run for an ensemble. Again, no idea if true....but that would tap the GOM w/ BN temps over much of the SE and MA. The GEFS is not there, but similar. That is how multi-day overrunning events look at range. Huge grains of salt...as usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Wow. The 12z EPS is now depicting a fairly decent winter wx patter for the last five days of its run which is the last four days of December and NYD. Here is the last 5 day 500 map and the very last day of that run. That will work. We are not looking at Weeklies now. Oddly, this is what the original weeklies sort of had. Textbook Nino BN heights over the SE. Maybe it is a bit overdone, but we are now entering the timeframe when the EPS is respectable - meaning no shoulder season. That would be quite cold under those BN heights. The GEFS is less impressed but is a similar setup. But man, that is impressive below. Which site do you use for this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Met1985 said: Which site do you use for this? WxBell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: No idea if correct, but I thought that I would share! LOL. This looks a lot like the weeklies which is a good thing IMO. Thanks for sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Met1985 said: This looks a lot like the weeklies which is a good thing IMO. Thanks for sharing. You folks at higher elevations better hang on tight tomorrow night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: WxBell Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: You folks at higher elevations better hang on tight tomorrow night. Yeah no kidding. The wind is going to be crazy. Also they are calling for liws around 16 so I could only imagine the windchill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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