December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[Bigbald]

49 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will say this, the system this weekend will help with drought conditions over E TN.  The slp slows down and almost stalls.

My god what a storm track for east Tennessee on 18z.  4 days of solid snow, this easily could of been one for ages.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Bigbald said:

My god what a storm track for east Tennessee on 18z.  4 days of solid snow, this easily could of been one for ages.  

I still do wonder if there will be some rates driven frozen precip at higher elevations.   If it gets that strong, there is a chance that it will.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some of the soundings from the 18z GFS show snow at the mountain tops. The ever-reliable for showing the most snow College of Dupage site even has it on their maps: 

the time stamp for that is 09z Monday

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Actually Pivotal has it too:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was just poking around on the satellite for tropical convection and noticed how much moisture this upcoming system has to work with. I've seen these moisture trains back into the Pacific, but never one like this in the Gulf to help pump up the precip:

[John1122]

0z GFS drops 2 or 3 feet on LeConte. Eventually a few snowflakes maybe in the air in the lower elevations. Probably too extreme with its solution. 

[fountainguy97]

5 hours ago, Bigbald said:

My god what a storm track for east Tennessee on 18z.  4 days of solid snow, this easily could have been one for ages.  

I Was going to come here and say this exact thing. Precip over us for 84hrs on 00z gfs. 2.5-3" of rainfall.  Would have been one of those winter storms you hear talked about for decades. Instead we get 30s and rain haha still good for our area though. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I can't wait to see if the NAM spits out some wild solutions with this weekends storm. The way it handles convection, it may have a tropical system in the Gulf or Atlantic at some point with like a 950mb pressure, lol.  

[Carvers Gap]

Power T is back as the avatar.  Ensembles look workable as do extended ensembles d+14.  Some of the "clutter" from the past few days has been removed.  The Pacific trough is still too close to the West coast, but(and it is a big but)......the trough over the SE has begun to show around the 28th.  Is it a mirage?  50/50 IDK.  I do think cold is still lacking in a massive way, but just getting rid of the NA torch will be helpful.  

As for the boomer this weekend...man, it really wants to stall.  Any time we see storms looping, re-forming, etc....good luck to modeling in figuring that out.  Trends overnight have been eastward???  What is crazy is the lack of cold is probably producing that storm.  There are few steering currents once it gets to our latitude.  It is almost like a hurricane that gets tucked under big high and just sits.  If it gets as strong as modeled, somebody in the East is getting a frozen mess even if temps are warm...the storm is modeled that strong.  Modeling could be overdoing it.  Today is a big day in terms of figuring out intensity.

And yes,  Holston, when the Nam finally sees it, it is gonna be like a bear which sees one of those big red coolers in a compact car.  Havoc is gonna take place!

[Matthew70]

At the rate winter is going.  I will be mowing my yard all winter.  Near 60 for next 10 days.  Christmas shows near 60 also.  My yard is green & growing.  

[PowellVolz]

I was at UT at the time.  One of my roommates was from Powell - actually knew three of the guys from the team which went to state maybe in 89.   That year was also when Lenoir City was hit by the tornado in '93, right?  I remember seeing all of the requests for EMS on TV.  

Yes.. same day. The LC tornado was really bad.


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[PowellVolz]

At the rate winter is going.  I will be mowing my yard all winter.  Near 60 for next 10 days.  Christmas shows near 60 also.  My yard is green & growing.  

A warm December is right on par with Nino winters. Most strong Nino winters don’t get going around here until January into February. Not panicking yet but by the week of Christmas we should see some LR hope showing up. Let’s also not forget that when we have a very strong anomaly that’s influencing our weather, the mods are going to struggle even more than they do.


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[Carvers Gap]

Pretty big changes to the operational 12z GFS.  Those began at 0z or maybe earlier.  Big PNA pops as the HB block retrogrades into NW Canada - that changes things for the better if real.   Fingers crossed, that would mean that models are reverting to a better pattern.  I suspect, the MJO is correcting into colder phases.  It looks that way on the CPC site.  If the MJO is correct, the MJO will progress back through warm phases yet again...but I doubt it gets caught on the warm side for more than a 10-12 days.    The 12z GFS does have cold air back in the pattern after d10.

[Itryatgolf70]

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pretty big changes to the operational 12z GFS.  Those began at 0z or maybe earlier.  Big PNA pops as the HB block retrogrades into NW Canada - that changes things for the better if real.   Fingers crossed, that would mean that models are reverting to a better pattern.  I suspect, the MJO is correcting into colder phases.  It looks that way on the CPC site.  If the MJO is correct, the MJO will progress back through warm phases yet again...but I doubt it gets caught on the warm side for more than a 10-12 days.    The 12z GFS does have cold air back in the pattern after d10.

Carver, I'm wondering when the mjo will be able to get to the colder phases (8-2)? Warm phases aren't good for cold weather lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

One thing I've been wondering, and it might not have much bearing on the upcoming pattern, is how will this jet extension behave when it hits the convection at the dateline and eastward? How will that convection modulate it and what do I mean by that? We've seen these jet extensions that aim at the west coast in the past and they usually roast us, but I'll be interested to see what happens when that extension actually gets to the more convectively active part of the Pacific.

The whole point of watching all this tropical convection all the time, when there isn't anything more immediate to analyze, is to see how it impacts the Pac jet. I think one of the reasons we like Ninos for blocking is that these jet extensions, as long as they're not Godzilla strength, add Momentum to atmosphere in the higher latitudes and thats why they can have more blocking and SPV disruptions. 

Does the ongoing convection strengthen it? Weaken it?  Redirect it a bit? How exactly will the convection look when the jet extension happens? The much feared jet extension is still 3 days away as far as I can tell. The ongoing dateline convection has already changed some over the past couple of days, but it seems to me that the tropics along and east of the dateline still look much more active than when we've had these jet extensions and accelerations over the past Ninas.

 

IDK, maybe just a bunch of ramblings after lunch, but something to think about since there's not much else going on. 

PS:  After the 12z GFS, the "Is this a deviation from the inevitable Torchmas, or is it another head fake?" debate in some of the more... I don't know...fussy subforums, should be fun over the next few days for those of you (like me) who like to watch those kinds of things. 

[Met1985]

It's crazy how different over the mountains are from some of yall.  We had two snows last week, temps in the teens and 30s, we still have snow across the mountains and we could be looking at a big high elevation event this weekend.  A warm December was always on the table and very well forecast. I wouldn't fret yet.

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

One thing I've been wondering, and it might not have much bearing on the upcoming pattern, is how will this jet extension behave when it hits the convection at the dateline and eastward? How will that convection modulate it and what do I mean by that? We've seen these jet extensions that aim at the west coast in the past and they usually roast us, but I'll be interested to see what happens when that extension actually gets to the more convectively active part of the Pacific.

The whole point of watching all this tropical convection all the time, when there isn't anything more immediate to analyze, is to see how it impacts the Pac jet. I think one of the reasons we like Ninos for blocking is that these jet extensions, as long as they're not Godzilla strength, add Momentum to atmosphere in the higher latitudes and thats why they can have more blocking and SPV disruptions. 

Does the ongoing convection strengthen it? Weaken it?  Redirect it a bit? How exactly will the convection look when the jet extension happens? The much feared jet extension is still 3 days away as far as I can tell. The ongoing dateline convection has already changed some over the past couple of days, but it seems to me that the tropics along and east of the dateline still look much more active than when we've had these jet extensions and accelerations over the past Ninas.

 

IDK, maybe just a bunch of ramblings after lunch, but something to think about since there's not much else going on. 

PS:  After the 12z GFS, the "Is this a deviation from the inevitable Torchmas, or is it another head fake?" debate in some of the more... I don't know...fussy subforums, should be fun over the next few days for those of you (like me) who like to watch those kinds of things. 

We are seeing reversals across modeling today.  I don’t know what to make of it other than modeling weakened the MJO in error

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

We are seeing reversals across modeling today.  I don’t know what to make of it other than modeling weakened the MJO in error

I've heard the OLR charts are the real deal when it comes to how and where the mjo is and going in the future. Better than the rmm charts I think

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I've heard the OLR charts are the real deal when it comes to how and where the mjo is and going in the future. Better than the rmm charts I think

Satellite is the gold standard, but OLR works as well. Basically, if you see storms firing over the Indian Ocean and/or Indonesia...phases 4-6 will follow.  I you see an MJO pulse make it to the dateline, that is basically phase 7-8-1.    The Nino projected to warm near the dateline (think that is right) should enhance MJO phase 8.  Big thing right now is I think modeling is struggling mightily with HL blocking, the potential for a strat split.  Model chaos is impending IMHO.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, I'm wondering when the mjo will be able to get to the colder phases (8-2)? Warm phases aren't good for cold weather lol

The MJO is maybe less important right now as it is still early winter, but the MJO is for sure present on modeling.  The big problem is the GoA low modeling in the medium range.  Where it sets up is highly important.  If we can get the ridge out of central Canada that will help displace it.

[PowellVolz]

It's crazy how different over the mountains are from some of yall.  We had two snows last week, temps in the teens and 30s, we still have snow across the mountains and we could be looking at a big high elevation event this weekend.  A warm December was always on the table and very well forecast. I wouldn't fret yet.

You are Green Co right?


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[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

You are Green Co right?


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Haywood County right on the TN/NC border. At 3500 feet. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The MJO is maybe less important right now as it is still early winter, but the MJO is for sure present on modeling.  The big problem is the GoA low modeling in the medium range.  Where it sets up is highly important.  If we can get the ridge out of central Canada that will help displace it.

Yeah, that's what we discussed awhile back in pushing that thing west . Need blocking to help with that as well. May be a quick block pop as wave breaking may get it done.

      Btw, check out the high pressure over our area now. 10.33 mb ! 

[Itryatgolf70]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's what we discussed awhile back in pushing that thing west . Need blocking to help with that as well. May be a quick block pop as wave breaking may get it done.

      Btw, check out the high pressure over our area now. 10.33 mb ! 

You meant 1033mb? That's pretty good hp regardless 

[Jed33]

22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's what we discussed awhile back in pushing that thing west . Need blocking to help with that as well. May be a quick block pop as wave breaking may get it done.

      Btw, check out the high pressure over our area now. 10.33 mb ! 

I can’t recall a hp of that magnitude (and forecasted to increase to 1040 on some models) where it was so warm. I mean it hasn’t really been a torch today, but it was 56 here today. Ordinarily a 1033 or greater would be good for highs in the 30’s at least. Shoot, I’ve seen single digit lows and highs around 20 with a 1033+. It’s just a testament to the fact that we don’t really have much cold air around right now. Hopefully that will change down the road.

[Daniel Boone]

31 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

You meant 1033mb? That's pretty good hp regardless 

? That's what I put. Lol The last symbol is exclamation mark. Just noticed, yeah put priod in there. Good catch, lol

[fountainguy97]

Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.

Man, wouldn't it be nice if that cold air up in the upper Midwest could get down here for that. Talk about a Snowstorm 

[Wulfer]

If this pattern repeats and its cold lookout.  This pattern with cold air will plaster Chattanooga!

[fountainguy97]

Well this storm has a long way to go. The euro and UK tonight really dig the second wave of energy and deliver a pretty potent NW event. A lot of eps support too and the gfs jumped that way at 00z just didn't dig it as much.

this is really the solution that can deliver any frozen precip with this system. And it will likely be changing until a few hours before the event. Long few days of watching ahead