December 2023

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

to date:

 

BOS:  0.2

BWI:   T

DCA:  T

 

BOS by a landslide....lol.

DCA - 0.1" 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

At least locally years with no Dec snow tended to have well below normal snowfall outcomes for the rest of winter.  Sure there's 14-15 but that's the outlier....

True, but so is last years Rat.

Touché’

[Sey-Mour Snow]

CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. 

Unfortunately ... it's become a mise en science in here where it is almost impossible to push an idea like that and have people even read it at this point.  hahaha

[Typhoon Tip]

Another near miss epicocity on the the 23rd/24th in the GFS

[Layman]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately ... it's become a mise en science in here where it is almost impossible to push an idea like that and have people even read it at this point.  hahaha

Hopefully this doesn't deter you folks from offering up analysis based on what you're seeing in each model gyration.  There are plenty of people in here (maybe?) who appreciate the professional perspectives, regardless of the weather outcome.  

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. 

I would never say that, at least speaking of SNE. Some of the best winters in this area didn't get started until early January. However I don't expect this to be a big snow year here either, just hopefully close to average

[leo2000]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Another near miss epicocity on the the 23rd/24th in the GFS

Haha that has been showing up a lot in that period. Something to possibly watch depending of course if the Canadian and Euro also has something brewing as well in that time period. The problem of course very little cold to work with unless it generates it's own cold.

[masonwoods]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. 

The avg high temp for Metuchen NJ on Dec 1st is 50 and the avg high temp on Dec 31 is 42.  When you refer to "we" do you really have an expectation for snow in Dec with that temp profile?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

Haha that has been showing up a lot in that period. Something to possibly watch depending of course if the Canadian and Euro also has something brewing as well in that time period. The problem of course very little cold to work with unless it generates it's own cold.

There’s decent cold to work with around that time on the GFS. It’s the 12/19 threat that has a putrid airmass. 
 

I’d keep an open mind for that 12/21-24 period. It’s not a cold pattern for the CONUS at all but there’s some regional cold that could make it down into the northeast/lakes if that block N of AK rolls over into the PNA ridge…it temporarily forces a much more meridional pattern. 

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. 

Otherwise…rains to the Labrador Sea  

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s decent cold to work with around that time on the GFS. It’s the 12/19 threat that has a putrid airmass. 
 

I’d keep an open mind for that 12/21-24 period. It’s not a cold pattern for the CONUS at all but there’s some regional cold that could make it down into the northeast/lakes if that block N of AK rolls over into the PNA ridge…it temporarily forces a much more meridional pattern. 

That period does look tempting. Even a weak NS clipper diving down would do the trick. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s decent cold to work with around that time on the GFS. It’s the 12/19 threat that has a putrid airmass. 
 

I’d keep an open mind for that 12/21-24 period. It’s not a cold pattern for the CONUS at all but there’s some regional cold that could make it down into the northeast/lakes if that block N of AK rolls over into the PNA ridge…it temporarily forces a much more meridional pattern. 

The 12z GEFs came in interesting. 

It's hard to tell, though. It may be manifesting both the 18th/19th ... and the 21st, as the same system - in other words, below is an artifact of the mean between the two.  

Either way, that's a new 1028 mb polar high N of Maine with a fairly impressive signal/spread lurking S.

 

[amc]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

GFS says lets do this again next Monday. Whee. 

maybe with the wind this time? Snow would be good too...

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

The avg high temp for Metuchen NJ on Dec 1st is 50 and the avg high temp on Dec 31 is 42.  When you refer to "we" do you really have an expectation for snow in Dec with that temp profile?

And there in lies my whole problem with these guys that come in here, and then lump SNE in with their region, and then also troll the SNE folks when we talk about a system, or a period of time that may be of interest to “our” region.  It takes valuable input away, and replaced it with BS trolling nonsense, that upsets and irritates the subforum.  
 

No problem if you want to come in here, but don’t detract from the conversation with constant trolling and nonstop negativity.  

[dryslot]

Here we go

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

The avg high temp for Metuchen NJ on Dec 1st is 50 and the avg high temp on Dec 31 is 42.  When you refer to "we" do you really have an expectation for snow in Dec with that temp profile?

Great post. 

[8611Blizz]

https://tenor.com/bfSut.gif

I was hoping to not need this before February.

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No reason to post hour 384 on any model.  I think the models should just go out to 240.

What are you talking about?  I posted the 15 day ensemble mean to counter your statement:

"Long range on the gfs and Euro looks horrendous. "

[jbenedet]

DAW: 45/45 

 

”behind the cold front”

 

[SouthCoastMA]

On 12/8/2023 at 7:32 AM, SouthCoastMA said:

I don't hate the GEFS look around the 12/20-12/22 timeframe 

The GEFS had this period (give or take a day) as something to watch off and on since 12/8. So, we watch with expectations in check. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Layman said:

That's interesting.  Is there an amount threshold to determine what's considered "snow" for this?  For that matter, is there a generally understood number in the industry that's recognized as a minimum amount of actual snow?  I'm not sure if you're comment above implies that to people more in the know than I am with these things.  I just know if it's spitting snow here and not coating grass, that's not appreciable snow. (No kidding! )

I don't count it unless I have a solid coating, not some snow that accumulates in a couple of places.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

DAW: 45/45 

 

”behind the cold front”

 

The ASOS looks screwed up

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The POPE is screwed up

Tell us something we don’t already know. 

[SouthCoastMA]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm.  Just need that northern stream to phase in. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm.  Just need that northern stream to phase in. 

Nice dong of a low there offshore.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nice dong of a low there offshore.  

I’d rather a dong, than a nipple…

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm.  Just need that northern stream to phase in. 

Nice spot to be 150+ hrs out....at least there is something out there

[CoastalWx]

Antecedent airmass is junk so it would also have to cold advect too as it intenisifies. Not a lot of wiggle room.