December 2023

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible turn of events 

 

Some noted for a couple of weeks that this was coming....some chose not to listen....

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible turn of events 

 

It started looking a little precarious over a week ago. 

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It started looking a little precarious over a week ago. 

that +EAMT pushed it over the edge. jet extensions are good, but we got too much of a good thing. at least we'll have a window open up in early-mid Jan when the jet should retract

[brooklynwx99]

can kinda see it here. would give more of a typical Aleutian LP response and +PNA/neutral EPO rather than a death star over AK

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that +EAMT pushed it over the edge. jet extensions are good, but we got too much of a good thing. at least we'll have a window open up in early-mid Jan when the jet should retract

it will take awhile to cool down Canada...mid January at the earliest IMO for anything decent

[STILL N OF PIKE]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It started looking a little precarious over a week ago. 

Shocking when weeklies that were consistent crapped themselves at 2 plus weeks out , as most know they do that often . Maybe they come back 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Shocking when weeklies that were consistent crapped themselves at 2 plus weeks out , as most know they do that often 

They are consistent until they are not.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

As others have noted, if we ever get a pattern change, it’s going to take time to flush the pacific puke out of Canada.

Id say a hopeful timeline would be mid Jan for something, maybe late Jan.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It started looking a little precarious over a week ago. 

Regression is a bitch 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Any thoughts from Mets on what a timeline for a change could look like now? Or are we on “3 weeks from now” looks great train until further notice?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Any thoughts from Mets on what a timeline for a change could look like now? Or are we on “3 weeks from now” looks great train until further notice?

if you got an honest answer, it would probably be optimistic given that these winters start off shitty and get better as time goes on, and that inherent optimism would fall on deaf ears

[brooklynwx99]

however, I would say that the first week of Jan is when the jet starts to retract and you get temps closer to normal for the MA... probably still AN from NYC north. trough develops in the SE and heights rise into AK to near normal. then in the second week, you can pop a -EPO and the risk for -NAO blocking increases. this is where the better chances probably crop up

i don't really see any reason for why this pattern would continue. the jet is forced by an anomalous +EAMT event and it will retract. when it does, the more favorable window opens. models underdid the effect of the EAMT and subsequent jet extension

[brooklynwx99]

Canada can also be pretty heavily AN and it wouldn't matter for our intents and purposes. +5 in central Canada in Jan is still frigid here

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

6z GFS trying to save Christmas. We pray. Lord how we pray.

I realize the nostalgia, the "Currier&Ives" affect, seems to validate Decembers for a lot of folks. 

I wish I had better news for you this morning - I really do.

I grew up in Michigan until 14 years of age. I recall white scenery nearing Xmas as a child more frequently than my experiences since. Overall deep wintry appeal in about 1/2 of the Decembers back whence.  The other half ... my impressions fade as the years go on into midlife decades ... but I want to recall them as rarely being actually warm. In the absence of white or ice they were brown barren scapes, but the air still smelled of winter. 

It seems ever since my family relocated to southern New England back in '83, my impression through 2002 or 2004 (say) was 1/3 of the 20 years worked out for the better.  So comparing western Michigan to this region, with my anecdotal accounting they win because ... when the synoptic charts and satellites confirm, open clear skies pervade the Great Lakes, gelid NW winds may still provide LE streamers - saves their spirit.  The sky may look that way, too; whenever one of those virga-shrouded nimbus, back lit by the sun, plumes over head they liken to an apparition.

Since 2004 though it seems that 1/3 of the years era became a 1/5th era... Now is like a 1/6th or even 1/8th ( per 10 years).  Just spit-ballin'   ...

Maybe this impression can be adjusted some in how we define the qualifications for a white Christmas.  'Is there snow on the grounds at all,' being the barest requirement - but that gets tinted brown in the mind if there's a 48 F rain going on with corn snow left in patches.  Not sure that should be fair or not.  I mean there'd be some subjectivity to the 'sentimentality rules', no doubt.  If it snowed nicely 5 days prior, and it was just 40 with light rain setting the canvas behind spiked 'nog occasions, the pack may settle but still intact, that's fair enough I suppose. 

Anyway,  the last time I remember a less molested Currier&Ives Christmas was 2017.  We received 7 or so inches Xmas eve, and awoke to that blue-gray misty dawn light ... mood vestiges still fluttering passed the sills.  6 years ago.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As others have noted, if we ever get a pattern change, it’s going to take time to flush the pacific puke out of Canada.

Id say a hopeful timeline would be mid Jan for something, maybe late Jan.

We’ll get a two week favorable stretch in Jan followed by torches in Feb that leaves Mar cooler and blocky but us hyper ventilating over marginal air masses on each threat.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll get a two week favorable stretch in Jan followed by torches in Feb that leaves Mar cooler and blocky but us hyper ventilating over marginal air masses on each threat.

Sounds like last year-white rain city...

[ariof]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the last time I remember a less molested Currier&Ives Christmas was 2017

And that was then followed by the coldest two week period in Boston's history. 7 days with max 20 or below (tied, longest), 13 days with a max 30 or below (tied, 3rd longest). I spent a week at Mont Ste Anne north of YQB and we didn't see anything close to zero; I think the car thermometer went below 0˚ (F) around Concord on 93 and didn't go above until we got back.

61˚ five days later, of course.

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll get a two week favorable stretch in Jan followed by torches in Feb that leaves Mar cooler and blocky but us hyper ventilating over marginal air masses on each threat.

i would be shocked if Feb torched

[weatherwiz]

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Canada can also be pretty heavily AN and it wouldn't matter for our intents and purposes. +5 in central Canada in Jan is still frigid here

Great post, people need to take this into consideration when posting 850 temperature anomaly plots. Pretty red colors in January in Canada doesn't equate to "warm". 

I also wonder if that "unfavorable" look being modeled is what sets the stage for some fun times as we move through January. I think this has been discussed quite a bit by a few...the idea that we would likely go through a period where the pattern is highly unfavorable before we finally turn a corner. 

[ariof]

Gotta love the model consistency one week out. At 00Z on the 19th:

GFS operational has a 987 low basically over ACK, with little cold and a storm looking like today (SN only over Vermont)

Euro has two 1000 lows, one east of JAX, one south of MSY

Canadian has a 996 low west of TPA

Goofus is the outlier here, I guess?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Great post, people need to take this into consideration when posting 850 temperature anomaly plots. Pretty red colors in January in Canada doesn't equate to "warm". 

I also wonder if that "unfavorable" look being modeled is what sets the stage for some fun times as we move through January. I think this has been discussed quite a bit by a few...the idea that we would likely go through a period where the pattern is highly unfavorable before we finally turn a corner. 

Srn Canada is warm. When it struggles to get colder than -2 at 850 near BTV there's a problem.

[Damage In Tolland]

All anyone needs to know is until Will starts posting again .. take some time away 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

Gotta love the model consistency one week out. At 00Z on the 19th:

GFS operational has a 987 low basically over ACK, with little cold and a storm looking like today (SN only over Vermont)

Euro has two 1000 lows, one east of JAX, one south of MSY

Canadian has a 996 low west of TPA

Goofus is the outlier here, I guess?

It’s 8 days out?  Best bet is to side with the solution that gives the most benign sensible weather. 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would be shocked if Feb torched

I wouldn't be shocked.  Not at all, actually.

4 out of the last 8 years experienced unusual warm blasts in February, regardless of any longer termed planetary index modes in place at the time.  

Combining that with on-going state of 'you-know-what' - that's pretty damning.  For those with an objective sensibility in the matters, that is.  Sorry if this latter statement sounds like a poke at gas-lighting, but truth of the matter is, these events occurred, and some were striking. Two of which approached 80 fuckum F.  I'm just old school enough to see that as appalling.

I remember a small handful of times growing up ...where a 'Feb thaw' might have mid 50s or even 60 and Crocuses poked out along the south sides of foundations.   Not bud bombing 70s.

 These cannot be explained merely by favorability keyed into combined index idiosyncrasies alone, when it's been occurring in a spectrum of them whether they correlated to warmth or not.  It is because of this logic that I'm not really ready to rule it out - not considering the world from Orbit.

We'll see.  Yeah, I'm not actually contrarian to what you are saying.  I mean sure, we could get 3 days in February ( yet again ...) and toss +25s in the bucket, but if there were 10 other days that were -7, you end up closer to normal, too.   I'm just trying to encourage folk to add in these 'synergistic heat' events because they have been proving to be a non-avoidable circumstance, not just at home but all over the world.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would be shocked if Feb torched

There’s always a week in Feb lately that it does but yea it would go against nino climo for sure. I prefer not to waste Jan and Feb with marginal patterns and with winters becoming shorter and shorter, it makes those months even more important to maximize so “improving as Jan unfolds” causes teeth to start chomping on finger nails. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Srn Canada is warm. When it struggles to get colder than -2 at 850 near BTV there's a problem.

Don't disagree with that, just saying that you can't just look at the one product (anomalies) and assume it's warm.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Sucks that we are once again punting to January and hoping for a turnaround 

[Chrisrotary12]

GFS says lets do this again next Monday. Whee. 

[greenmtnwx]

Close the blinds folks its over. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sucks that we are once again punting to January and hoping for a turnaround 

"punting to Jan" isn't really a good term for it. coastal SNE and south don't really do much in December. punting to Feb, on the other hand? that's an issue. don't expect that as of now, though