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December 2023

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

January and February…into some

of March that’s when our snow is. All this crap about December snow and “white Christmas”…is just that, it’s crap. It’s just mentality deranged from childhood fairytale stories of Santa recruiting Rudolph to guide the sleigh through snow and fog. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Biggest mistakes a forecaster can make is observing what is actually happening and thinking A + B doesn’t equal C

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733920472092356620?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

why can't A + B  = D? 

1 + 1 = 2. Those are constants

A, B, C, D, etc. are all variables and be assigned any value. If A = 2 and B =5 and C =12 A + B does not = C 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

January and February…into some

of March that’s when our snow is. All this crap about December snow and “white Christmas”…is just that, it’s crap. It’s just mentality deranged from childhood fairytale stories of Santa recruiting Rudolph to guide the sleigh through snow and fog. 

Except when it happens ... right -

I think people just want the given year to be one of those times - just a guess.  That's all -   ...Now, if they piss in the punch because it's not happening, ignore it.  They grouse, and then it's only two fold just as annoying when we grouse about the grousers.    Who cares.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a risk we lose the rest of December if that vortex near Bering doesn’t retrograde…some of the guidance just sinks it a bit south but it’s not really good enough. 
 

But OTOH, why should we believe that when this stuff has been changing so quickly. Could look completely different in a day or two. 
 

I think part of the recent solutions is I noticed most models stall the MJO in phase 7 for like 7-10 days. It rips through phase 5/6 by 12/14 and then it just….stops. Previous runs moved it into phase 8 by 12/19-12/20. If that part isn’t totally accurate, then we’re going to get more changes. 

 

Yeah...I'd say partial.  

The MJO isn't causing it.  I'd take a look at the ballooning +WPO if I were people, but that's just me.  The western Pacific circulation modes abruptly changed signs and it's started suppressing the entire region - changing the eddy forcing in a way that interferes negatively. 

That's why the 7 phase is hitting the proverbial wall/stalling. Some 7 days back it wasn't doing that.

Blame Asia.

If the WPO goes the other way, the wave emerges out of 7 and then positive interference commences and we're in business.  I'm more willing to question whether the WPO and the eventual dial forcing toward the NP/EPO region is correctable or not.  It is rather new, and you're right - the general hemisphere post D9's has been unusually stochastic.

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

nBiggest mistakes a forecaster can make is observing what is actually happening and thinking A + B doesn’t equal C

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733920472092356620?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

It's funny, but that progression shows a gradually retrograding jet in the Pac, which would lead to an Aleutian low rather than a GOA low.  Huge difference in sensible Wx here.

 

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

January and February…into some

of March that’s when our snow is. All this crap about December snow and “white Christmas”…is just that, it’s crap. It’s just mentality deranged from childhood fairytale stories of Santa recruiting Rudolph to guide the sleigh through snow and fog. 

The original Rudolph guided Santa through fog, not snow. Guy who wrote it was supposedly inspired by a thick fog in NYC. Lots of stories about Robert May's inspiration in 1939, but that is one of them. So, yeah, let's stop with the "White Christmas" mania, especially here in SNE. Up north, its a different story, but fog and rain are more common down here. Let's start dreaming of a Wild Sou'wester on Christmas Eve.

Sincerely yours, The Grinch. :grinch:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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42 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

The original Rudolph guided Santa through fog, not snow. Guy who wrote it was supposedly inspired by a thick fog in NYC. Lots of stories about Robert May's inspiration in 1939, but that is one of them. So, yeah, let's stop with the "White Christmas" mania, especially here in SNE. Up north, its a different story, but fog and rain are more common down here. Let's start dreaming of a Wild Sou'wester on Christmas Eve.

Sincerely yours, The Grinch. :grinch:

Your BY is greater than 50% for white Xmas. It’s pretty common over interior SNE. But it can be noisy. We went 6 out of 7 between 2007-2013 (only 2011 missing)…then skunked for 4 years before 2017 and 2019. Now 3 duds in a row (though a chunk of SNE near and S of the pike had one in 2021 from that Xmas Eve snow event)

 

If you’re S or SE and near the coast then it’s a different story. The chances are a lot less. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I'd say partial.  

The MJO isn't causing it.  I'd take a look at the ballooning +WPO if I were people, but that's just me.  The western Pacific circulation modes abruptly changed signs and it's started suppressing the entire region - changing the eddy forcing in a way that interferes negatively. 

That's why the 7 phase is hitting the proverbial wall/stalling. Some 7 days back it wasn't doing that.

Blame Asia.

If the WPO goes the other way, the wave emerges out of 7 and then positive interference commences and we're in business.  I'm more willing to question whether the WPO and the eventual dial forcing toward the NP/EPO region is correctable or not.  It is rather new, and you're right - the general hemisphere post D9's has been unusually stochastic.

I think the MJO is contributing to the more +NAO/AO late month, but I agree the PAC jet is the main cause of the warmth.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah not sure why this isn’t absorbing but the MJO doesn’t spearhead regional temperature distribution. 

It enhances, indirectly, through positive wave interference. 

When the hemisphere is in negative interference the MJO correlation empirically breaks down. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

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I'm not gonna lie... But I'm now seeing more people talking about a not so Wintry pattern for us in the east ( I mean SNE down through the Mid-Atlantic  )

Maybe it will change again, but one thing I have learned a while ago is to never let long range models suck you in. Things can and will change on a dime. I'll be happy with one big Blizzard ( but happier with a nice good stretch of Winter ).

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm not gonna lie... But I'm now seeing more people talking about a not so Wintry pattern for us in the east ( I mean SNE down through the Mid-Atlantic  )

Maybe it will change again, but one thing I have learned a while ago is to never let long range models suck you in. Things can and will change on a dime. I'll be happy with one big Blizzard ( but happier with a nice good stretch of Winter ).

 

I'd take a 3-5 week stretch of cold and snowy over a big dog this year.  I just want the New Years to Valentines period to actually look and feel like winter.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

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12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Except when it happens ... right -

Now, if they piss in the punch because it's not happening, ignore it.  They grouse, and then it's only two fold just as annoying when we grouse about the grousers.    Who cares.

:lol: Easy for you to say. Growing up as the silent one and finally learning you have a voice... I just feel calling them out is a duty. I don't mind it from the general population here, but expect better from the Mets. That said, I have to kill these mosquitoes flying around my shop this A.M. Down to 39 in the last half hour, it was 42 when I arrived at 5 A.M. waiting on the winds

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