December 2023

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That storm on the 18th-19th is ugly. Rains to canadas

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately ( well ... not for you but for the winter enthusiasts), the numerical teleconnection spread shuts down cold loading into North America, ~ after the 20th.  This is also in conflict with the erstwhile consensus for wintry turn at the end of the month, interestingly. 

I've been keeping track ...about 3 or 4 days ago, the WPO projection flipped sign. As of last night, all the way up to +2SD.  And then out around the 20th or so, the EPO goes positive mode.  There is a lag correlation between the two, where preferentially ... the EPO will eventually modulate toward where the sign of the WPO - given time.  So the EPO rising isn't a surprise considering -  

So, that giant Chinook generator pattern is not a terrible fit for the strengthening +WPO/+EPO  ...  state that would (also) be in conflict for the consensus idea that things would turn inimically better during the end of the month.  

None of this hugely confident.  Even relative to climo/modeling climo that is so. We've been observing wholesale hemispheric modulations that are unusual - considering the mass of the whole thing?  Definitely either a artifact of modeling (somehow) or something weird is happening...  where pattern simulacrums that no sooner, blow up and become something else entirely about ever 3 days.  So I'm not completely sold that the above Pacific scaffolding is going to become history.  

 

I’m a huge winter enthusiast, if their were encouraging sings for winter I’ll post them.  Unfortunately their are no signs of winter for most of the country, north east included for the next month

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That storm on the 18th-19th is ugly. Rains to canadas

That 6z GFS OP run seems like the best case scenario in this pattern which is colder for Christmas but no snow or grincher. I'd lock it in if I could.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That 6z GFS OP run seems like the best case scenario in this pattern which is colder for Christmas but no snow or grincher. I'd lock it in if I could.

Yeah, it looks fairly seasonable after that horrific cutter, which I guess is all you can ask for. 
 

Cooler and dry around Christmas would be a win these days 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

That 6z GFS OP run seems like the best case scenario in this pattern which is colder for Christmas but no snow or cutter. I'd lock it in if I could.

That’s what you need to sneak something in. It could happen, but the overall pattern needs work.

[forkyfork]

december is a fall month

[kdxken]

No snow in Connecticut.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

I’m a huge winter enthusiast, if their were encouraging sings for winter I’ll post them.  Unfortunately their are no signs of winter for most of the country, north east included for the next month

Do you think the +WPO/+EPO, beyond D10 .. ., is of the higher confidence, so high in fact that there is no realistic chance that things may break the other direction ?? 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you think the +WPO/+EPO, beyond D10 .. ., is of the higher confidence, so high in fact that there is no realistic chance that things may break the other direction ?? 

He cherry picked Ensemble products anyway, plain and simple.

[Torch Tiger]

Winter *SHOULD* perk up near/after X-mas, who wouldn't forecast that happening? Besides an extremely hostile pattern, mediocre patterns can produce decent even excellent storms. 

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you think I'm the only person that thought that? why just go up my ass about it? might as well quote everyone else. there were mets that had a similar thought process

Oh definitely, and of course no one said "slam dunk" anything.  tbh, your posts HERE (can't speak for other subforums) are generally LR stuff and pimping ensemble products.  That's really all I can speak of and address.

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

He cherry picked Ensemble products anyway, plain and simple.

0z GEFS...look how far north the 540 isopleth is 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Oh definitely, and of course no one said "slam dunk" anything.  tbh, your posts HERE (can't speak for other subforums) are generally LR stuff and pimping ensemble products.  That's really all I can speak of and address.

If nothing is happening short term besides a wind/rain/far interior elevation snow in the near term, all there is to discuss, besides that, is medium range and beyond forecasts.  Pimping ensemble products?  What does that even mean.  I don't know too many people who don't use ensembles for 500 mb pattern or things like the NAO, ENSO, strat warms and the such.

 

I like mets discussing those things because I am weak on my correlations and thus like seeing discussions on them.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately ( well ... not for you but for the winter enthusiasts), the numerical teleconnection spread shuts down cold loading into North America, ~ after the 20th.  This is also in conflict with the erstwhile consensus for wintry turn at the end of the month, interestingly. 

I've been keeping track ...about 3 or 4 days ago, the WPO projection flipped sign. As of last night, all the way up to +2SD.  And then out around the 20th or so, the EPO goes positive mode.  There is a lag correlation between the two, where preferentially ... the EPO will eventually modulate in favor of the WPO's sign - given time.  So the EPO rising isn't a surprise considering -  

What all this means is, that giant Chinook generator pattern is not a terrible fit for the strengthening +WPO/+EPO.  

None of this hugely confident.  Even relative to climo/modeling climo that is so. We've been observing wholesale hemispheric modulations that are unusual - considering the mass of the whole thing?  Definitely either an artifact of modeling (somehow) or something weird is happening...  where pattern identity become mere simulacrums that disperse like farts in the wind, and we're looking at something else entirely about ever 3 days.  So I'm not completely sold that the above Pacific scaffolding is going to become history.  

 

How much empirically derived equations go into those forecasts as compared to strictly dynamics/physics.  If something in the base state has changed, maybe warmer oceans globally, empirical based predictions that worked before won't work as well now.

[Allsnow]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

How much empirically derived equations go into those forecasts as compared to strictly dynamics/physics.  If something in the base state has changed, maybe warmer oceans globally, empirical based predictions that worked before won't work as well now.

"those forecast" in deference to the above are a mean of all the ensemble members.  They literally take the average of all the ensemble members.

Each member has slightly differing physical equations, but they are not 'guess work'?   I'm not sure precisely what you mean by "empirically derived equations" but ... the physical equations built into each do not produce impossible solutions. They wouldn't be of much use if that were the case. 

Each focuses in a specific aspect of atmospheric physics. There's probably documentation on each member's "genetics" ( if you will). Ho man - can you imagine the Asperger spectrum required to read that?   Like Member 6 uses some experimental convective sequencing - now ... go and match all those days whence ever those were valid, and if those valid days match the circumstance at hand... weeee. 

Popsicle headache. 

Meanwhile member 7 ... some other variant, and on and so on. This stuff actually matters, because the thing about cloud creation (efficiency/proficiency:  That releases latent heat during the pseudo adiabatic machinery of the storm, which if done by X physics may or may not be more correct than if done so by way X', or Y or whatever. 

The operational version's just employ what's worked the best in the past, through objective comparison with reality through experimentation. 

I may be butchering some of this but in principle that's the gist. 

Having said all that, the individual ensemble physical implementations don't change ( unless a wholesale new version is rolled out). They're just process out into the future based on whatever is given them. Which is the initialization provided by sounding/satellite

[cut]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

No snow in Connecticut.

That looks like Laurel View in Hamden - hidden gem

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah...I suppose being 200+ hours this thing oughta be watched.  It's not mere noise in an errant operational run there. This thing has heredity going back days of runs - granted with the usual inconsistencies to be expected, the essence has persisted.

Earlier I spoke of the +WPO/+EPO unfortunate motif that's recently evolved... however, the +PNA during the period between D6 -10 has also been there all along.  The modality of which does send some correction signal/H.A.

Obviously, this social media ilk of folk don't care too much for powerful WARM Miller A cyclones getting captured by the N/stream, only enough to slow it down while being too late to save Christmas nostalgia - understood...  But should the synopsis over SE Canada morph in the right direction that profile could easily change

[Typhoon Tip]

Crazy negative NAO like ridge in the oper GFS though.    Doesn't appear to help our cause but it is pressing the ceiling of the charts. wow. Approaching 600 dm in mid/late Dec?  

o   kay

[NorEastermass128]

I’m not saying it is going to be one, but these are the days, when strung together, you start to smell the beginnings of a rat. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m not saying it is going to be one, but these are the days, when strung together, you start to smell the beginnings of a rat. 

Ya…I’m not agreeing with that. 14-15 was horrible til the end of January. Way too early to tell that.  Elnino’s are notorious for bad Decembers.  So I very much disagree. 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya…I’m not agreeing with that. 14-15 was horrible til the end of January. Way too early to tell that.  Elnino’s are notorious for bad Decembers.  So I very much disagree. 

Agree. I sort of expected this in Dec. If we’re seeing this a month from now, different story. 

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…I’m not agreeing with that. 14-15 was horrible til the end of January. Way too early to tell that.  Elnino’s are notorious for bad Decembers.  So I very much disagree. 

Also agree. This is December 10th, not January 10th.  For SNE at least we're very par for the course so far.  Now if we're still here in a month then sure, I'll change my tune a little 

[butterfish55]

Filtered sun, low 60s... festive

[40/70 Benchmark]

The crap pattern will change....maybe Xmas will be 50 degrees and maybe it will take longer than many of us had thought...maybe it won't. But keep in mind that periods of flux will often feature marked volatility in the extended range on guidance, so try to take a step back and wait. Look how everyone was spiking footballs for a time about December prospects when we were transitioning from the cold November regime to this. Even @raindancewxisn't calling for a blow torch of a winter, as his NE snow defecit is more tied to a flukey seasonal precip hole based on -PDO analogs, which is far more precarious and correctable than a 1997-1998 redux.

Just enjoy the holidays, play in puddles and go with the flow.

[Torch Tiger]

so this is Christmas.  wow

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Also agree. This is December 10th, not January 10th.  For SNE at least we're very par for the course so far.  Now if we're still here in a month then sure, I'll change my tune a little 

 

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Agree. I sort of expected this in Dec. If we’re seeing this a month from now, different story. 

Yes to both. But even then(1/10)…Things sometimes don’t get going until after that.  But it will be more concerning for sure. Not saying this is 2015, but that season had a blast furnace Xmas, with zilch until Friday, 1/24 when we had a wet snow 1-4” on a Friday night, and then the 0z euro brought back from the dead the blizzard for that Monday, 1/27, and then it was off to the races.  So many times, it just takes an excruciatingly long while to get going. But I think we all expected this here in December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

so this is Christmas.  wow

Happy holidays.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happy holidays.

Lol..to a 360 hr GFS OP run.  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happy holidays.

None of that's going to verify that way ( obviously - we're having fun commiserating in snark!) buuut, the surface resolution accompanying that is no where near as mild as the intent of that post