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It's marginal though...

1   In my experience over the many years of modeling, marginality in runs routinely favors the warm side beyond D5 in guidance...  We're out there around D11/12 with that thing so...it's probably all moot for now.  In the old days ...through the 1990s early 2000s, most 'blue bombs' actually spent time as cold/CCB head rains when in the outer/ext range.

2  In recent years ... I've noticed a subtle difference in actual marginal scenarios - those that are inside of D4 or in modeling, so presumed reasonably accurate.  Marginal actually has begun to favor warmth - I call that the 'flip direction'   When we have been right on the fence in guidance that has a pallet of p-typs through an isothermal sounding at 0 C ... we've lost our latitude magic.  Yes, it's a subtlety I believe may be connected with CC

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas :lol:.

Last year was king for that, cold/dry warm/wet dominated....The whole second half of that GFS run reminded me of a late March/April pattern. 

Who knows, I just assume at this point if something is marginal, money is on rain, even in the core of winter

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Careful, the wolf lurks…

Nothing against Brett personally, it’s just that he’s been overachieving there for a decade…yet he thinks he’s been in a snow hole for a decade. The guy is misled.
 

Like with that post…he says there’s been a lot of those looks of late, and Scott comes in and corrects him and says…no, it’s pretty rare. Lol.  
 

Ya got Forky posting 384 hr ensemble maps, and pimping the warmth..???  I mean does it get any more obvious that these folks are just jabbing and trolling for real…. Sad.
 

We can’t trust 6-7 day ensembles, but we’re gonna throw out 16 day ones, and troll folks. pathetic.  Let em go…who cares what these trolls think from Jersey and NYC.

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You can basically summarize like this… if the much anticipated and widely forecast in many circles pattern change to more favorable with snow chances and sufficient cold beginning Xmas week and for Jan and Feb is delayed or pushed back or doesn’t happen or whatever , this place is going to lose it. That includes snowless SNE all the way up to NNE where much of area outside  the Mtns sees the giant snow eraser Sunday night. There are a ton of posters( myself included) that are hoping and counting on it . Folks are already posting on eggshells. It had better happen or all hell will break loose. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can basically summarize like this… if the much anticipated and widely forecast in many circles pattern change to more favorable with snow chances and sufficient cold beginning Xmas week and for Jan and Feb is delayed or pushed back or doesn’t happen or whatever , this place is going to lose it. That includes snowless SNE all the way up to NNE where much of area outside  the Mtns sees the giant snow eraser Sunday night. There are a ton of posters( myself included) that are hoping and counting on it . Folks are already posting on eggshells. It had better happen or all hell will break loose. 

yeah, same thing happened in January 2015. idk if anything of note happened that winter 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can basically summarize like this… if the much anticipated and widely forecast in many circles pattern change to more favorable with snow chances and sufficient cold beginning Xmas week and for Jan and Feb is delayed or pushed back or doesn’t happen or whatever , this place is going to lose it. That includes snowless SNE all the way up to NNE where much of area outside  the Mtns sees the giant snow eraser Sunday night. There are a ton of posters( myself included) that are hoping and counting on it . Folks are already posting on eggshells. It had better happen or all hell will break loose. 

beer

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, same thing happened in January 2015. idk if anything of note happened that winter 

It also happened last year, and that was historic as well. 

I don’t believe anybody should be panicking right now. Not sure why there’s so much apprehension at this point if folks are just looking at this season.

For now I’m just proceeding with caution on the evolution this month, which I do think is important.

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38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing against Brett personally, it’s just that he’s been overachieving there for a decade…yet he thinks he’s been in a snow hole for a decade. The guy is misled.
 

Like with that post…he says there’s been a lot of those looks of late, and Scott comes in and corrects him and says…no, it’s pretty rare. Lol.  
 

Ya got Forky posting 384 hr ensemble maps, and pimping the warmth..???  I mean does it get any more obvious that these folks are just jabbing and trolling for real…. Sad.
 

We can’t trust 6-7 day ensembles, but we’re gonna throw out 16 day ones, and troll folks. pathetic.  Let em go…who cares what these trolls think from Jersey and NYC.

It’s rare in a sense that it gets Stowe as rain. Over the last few years we’ve had plenty of great tracks in the heart of winter that have produced rain for many folks.

Im not debating the last decade on the whole has been pretty good. However, the reality is, outside of a mega blizzard in Jan 22, there hasn’t really been a ton of snow here over the last 3-4 years 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s rare in a sense that it gets Stowe as rain. Over the last few years we’ve had plenty of great tracks in the heart of winter that have produced rain for many folks.

Im not debating the last decade on the whole has been pretty good. However, the reality is, outside of a mega blizzard in Jan 22, there hasn’t really been a ton of snow here over the last 3-4 years 

This recent stretch is good for you my friend…it will teach you to appreciate the big winters. I was “lucky” enough to have the worst 4 year stretch in recorded history at ORH in my childhood so I was exposed to huge failure early on which really made those big winters feel a lot more special. 

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