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December 2023


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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For all of SNE.. and yes you 

Inland extent is always the hardest forecast, but looking at the forecast soundings you're not out of the game for December of yore sou'easter. 

The LLJ doesn't really crank until it's passing the tip of the Cape, so I wouldn't be banking on parking your roof in your neighbor's yard, but I could buy an advisory.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Inland extent is always the hardest forecast, but looking at the forecast soundings you're not out of the game for December of yore sou'easter. 

The LLJ doesn't really crank until it's passing the tip of the Cape, so I wouldn't be banking on parking your roof in your neighbor's yard, but I could buy an advisory.

IDK...maybe his roof does get dislodged 

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35 minutes ago, Layman said:

“Accu”weather is calling for max gusts to 51mph where I am. My station has recorded a mid to high 30’s mph gust during big wind events. Not sure if it’s not precise enough to record a true higher gust or if we simply don’t get them higher than that here. We’re facing south and have a 20-30 acre field in front of us so the wind can blow. I’m hoping for lower gusts but will get the generator staged just in case. 

50ish is a pretty good middle of the road forecast right now, but I could see it being as high as 65 mph in the PSM area or as low as 40.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Inland extent is always the hardest forecast, but looking at the forecast soundings you're not out of the game for December of yore sou'easter. 

The LLJ doesn't really crank until it's passing the tip of the Cape, so I wouldn't be banking on parking your roof in your neighbor's yard, but I could buy an advisory.

Agreed. I don’t think it’ll be a top 5 event , but you can envision this one rivaling the ones we had in Nov and Dec back in the 90’s. Those gusted 65-70 even inland . My thinking is 50-58 inland and maybe exposed areas rip a 60 or two . At least it’s something fun to track and look forward to .

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agreed. I don’t think it’ll be a top 5 event , but you can envision this one rivaling the ones we had in Nov and Dec back in the 90’s. Those gusted 65-70 even inland . My thinking is 50-58 inland and maybe exposed areas rip a 60 or two . At least it’s something fun to track and look forward to .

Still have some oaks with some leaves here and of course the pear trees which take forever to drop...say goodbye to those

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agreed. I don’t think it’ll be a top 5 event , but you can envision this one rivaling the ones we had in Nov and Dec back in the 90’s. Those gusted 65-70 even inland . My thinking is 50-58 inland and maybe exposed areas rip a 60 or two . At least it’s something fun to track and look forward to .

Do a walkthrough this weekend and double check your Christmas lights are firmly tied down. 

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I’m suspicious the GFS is too zealous with the total wave space potency. 

I know folks are clambering for excitement/anything to break the monotony as of late so we have our fun with the GFS run… But both the GGEM and Euro also being inside 96 hrs and coming in subdued gives me a little pause. Really what I am seeing in the very recent GFS trough mechanics is the S arc of the L/W is suddenly large compared to the prior runs and it’s not abundantly clear where the GFS gets that oomph/negative tilting thing from. 

If it goes down that way it’ll be interesting to science why/where that was missed until suddenly these last two runs.  Before those… The actual conversion to more of this, a strong, cold front actually made sense for the compression of the field and a fast flow and all that. Interesting.

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1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

How legitimate is this emerging upslope signal once the coastal low passes? I assume further east trends would help bring the flow into a more favorable direction 

Once the wind goes NW in low levels there will be an orographic assist but the key is the trough going negative tilt.  Slows it down and develops a bit more of a tug on the CAA.

My gut says heaviest synoptic ends up over the Adirondacks and the Greens are more upslope driven later in the system.  But the GFS solution is worth watching.

Sometimes these lows developing along a gradient can dump big snow and fast for someone… like 14” in 8 hours type deal.

We had that in March 2011… 1”+ of rain followed by 24” snow (over 3” total QPF) while ORH was 50F in the warm sector.

Somewhere there should be a big gradient though when talking about these QPF amounts of 2-3.50”.  

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I've opined in the past that data assimilation has (apparently) significantly improved enough over previous generation(s) of the technology that we don't typically get substantive correction once Pac impulses relay into the denser objective sounding grid ... but, it is what is ... if this sudden increased trough mechanics goes on to be real, it would seem that is most culpable.

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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:


I can see that turquoise paint of the 30 spot when I look outside up towards the sky overhead. Not gonna happen, but pulling half that and a 3rd major out of our ass is impressive. It finds a way this year.


.

Lets see if we can have no power at my office for the 3rd straight Monday!

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've opined in the past that data assimilation has (apparently) significantly improved enough over previous generation(s) of the technology that we don't typically get substantive correction once Pac impulses relay into the denser objective sounding grid ... but, it is what is ... if this sudden increase trough mechanics goes on to be real, it would seem that is most culpable.

Even raobs aren't infallible, despite being an observation. They are plotted as if they are at a single location, but can be 100s of miles away from the launch site by the time it is sampling important upper level features. 

I do think there is a weighting system with data assimilation. Like raobs may get more weight than satellite measurements, so while satellite measurements have gotten better there may still be shifts in guidance once the upper air network gets a hold of it.

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Things to consider with a deeper sfc PP wrt wind.   The pressure drop in the core of the approaching cyclogenesis along the boundary, offsets the gradient ahead of it, such that the winds don't respond as quickly as the isobars would suggest.  It's real technical ...but on the back side, the pressure fall/rise couplet can induce a more active isollabaric wind response.

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Even raobs aren't infallible, despite being an observation. They are plotted as if they are at a single location, but can be 100s of miles away from the launch site by the time it is sampling important upper level features. 

I do think there is a weighting system with data assimilation. Like raobs may get more weight than satellite measurements, so while satellite measurements have gotten better there may still be shifts in guidance once the upper air network gets a hold of it.

This is an important ( fascinating if you're a nerd like me ) aspect above ( bold).   If true, it's a part of my faster hemisphere hypothesis - which has been recently corroborated by ...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas  (probably other pubs unknown -)

..Anyway, it's "possible" that what you're describing may be an emergence of error forcing that was not as prevalent during the 'growth spurt' era of modeling technology in the 1970s-2000.  The idea being that we engineer tools that suffice the observations of our environment - such that these tools' heredity may not be designed to account for a quickening atmosphere sending along balloons that sample the "wrong" region of the troughs and ridges.   That's really cool!

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