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December 2023


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20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA.  For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it.  Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and possibly favorable in the 15-20.  Thats all we know for now. 

Possibly favorable is the key to me.  It’s easy for some weenies to start believing 14 -20 day + out weeklies with the same confidence of a 5 day outlook (when that is sort of the only game in town for SNE worth talking about . you set yourself up for trouble , the pros understands this ..even when they have been consistent . Feels to me when they are consistent it goes from a pipe dream to almost a coin toss (and to be clear ..a nearly 50% chance or whatever % of a real  good pattern at the end of the month is much better than usual so I’m not saying a “coin toss” in a negative connotation , I think as long as that is sort of not lost then you can talk every day about it bc there really isn’t any else favorable to talk about that is in confidence range . 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs.  But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. 

It would be nice if we could trend this east a bit at 12z today.. getting new tires on my car today.. hoping it's not the nail in the coffin for snow chances 

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs.  But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. 

Did the 13-17’th period get a bit more unfavorable compared to what we hoped a few days ago and I’m asking sincerely and if so what sort of drove that , I recall Tips image of all the players on the global field and Will’s posts showing how the 8-12 day period had much less skill than even usual which seemed related to that 

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It would be nice if we could trend this east a bit at 12z today.. getting new tires on my car today.. hoping it's not the nail in the coffin for snow chances 

Besides you and hub not many are gonna care , but i think If it moves much more east it’s likely to be weaker and not as wound up and be less certain of backside snow but I’d be interested a bit if I lived where you do 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did the 13-17’th period get a bit more unfavorable compared to what we hoped a few days ago and I’m asking sincerely and if so what sort of drove that , I recall Tips image of all the players on the global field and Will’s posts showing how the 8-12 day period had much less skill than even usual which seemed related to that 

Looks like Stein….we get a cold shot on most guidance during that period but it’s dry. That could change but right now it looks boring. 

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46 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA.  For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it.  Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and possibly favorable in the 15-20.  Thats all we know for now. 

Remember, you have your select few that are going to look for every aspect of a crappy month. They will ride any model that shows warmth and rain and hype it up just to try and get a rise out of some. 

We have no idea what it will be like towards Christmas at this point. 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs.  But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. 

All we need to do is get past the 5-10 day unfavorable pattern and we can sneak a snow event in at anytime.  

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man that LLJ really starts cranking over coastal Maine. It could get a little wild on the coast right up through EPO.

The NBM mean wind gust at RKD is 70 mph with a standard deviation range of 60-80 mph. Overnight model runs really amped the wind threat up from when I left yesterday afternoon.

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“Accu”weather is calling for max gusts to 51mph where I am. My station has recorded a mid to high 30’s mph gust during big wind events. Not sure if it’s not precise enough to record a true higher gust or if we simply don’t get them higher than that here. We’re facing south and have a 20-30 acre field in front of us so the wind can blow. I’m hoping for lower gusts but will get the generator staged just in case. 

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