STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA. For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it. Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and possibly favorable in the 15-20. Thats all we know for now. Possibly favorable is the key to me. It’s easy for some weenies to start believing 14 -20 day + out weeklies with the same confidence of a 5 day outlook (when that is sort of the only game in town for SNE worth talking about . you set yourself up for trouble , the pros understands this ..even when they have been consistent . Feels to me when they are consistent it goes from a pipe dream to almost a coin toss (and to be clear ..a nearly 50% chance or whatever % of a real good pattern at the end of the month is much better than usual so I’m not saying a “coin toss” in a negative connotation , I think as long as that is sort of not lost then you can talk every day about it bc there really isn’t any else favorable to talk about that is in confidence range . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs. But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs. But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. It would be nice if we could trend this east a bit at 12z today.. getting new tires on my car today.. hoping it's not the nail in the coffin for snow chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs. But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. Did the 13-17’th period get a bit more unfavorable compared to what we hoped a few days ago and I’m asking sincerely and if so what sort of drove that , I recall Tips image of all the players on the global field and Will’s posts showing how the 8-12 day period had much less skill than even usual which seemed related to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It would be nice if we could trend this east a bit at 12z today.. getting new tires on my car today.. hoping it's not the nail in the coffin for snow chances Besides you and hub not many are gonna care , but i think If it moves much more east it’s likely to be weaker and not as wound up and be less certain of backside snow but I’d be interested a bit if I lived where you do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did the 13-17’th period get a bit more unfavorable compared to what we hoped a few days ago and I’m asking sincerely and if so what sort of drove that , I recall Tips image of all the players on the global field and Will’s posts showing how the 8-12 day period had much less skill than even usual which seemed related to that Looks like Stein….we get a cold shot on most guidance during that period but it’s dry. That could change but right now it looks boring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Man that LLJ really starts cranking over coastal Maine. It could get a little wild on the coast right up through EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It would be nice if we could trend this east a bit at 12z today.. getting new tires on my car today.. hoping it's not the nail in the coffin for snow chances If anything it’s going back west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 6z was even more ridiculous lol.I can see that turquoise paint of the 30 spot when I look outside up towards the sky overhead. Not gonna happen, but pulling half that and a 3rd major out of our ass is impressive. It finds a way this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 46 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA. For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it. Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and possibly favorable in the 15-20. Thats all we know for now. Remember, you have your select few that are going to look for every aspect of a crappy month. They will ride any model that shows warmth and rain and hype it up just to try and get a rise out of some. We have no idea what it will be like towards Christmas at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs. But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. All we need to do is get past the 5-10 day unfavorable pattern and we can sneak a snow event in at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like Stein….we get a cold shot on most guidance during that period but it’s dry. That could change but right now it looks boring. Yeah it’s stein and anything we hope to come would be after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 6z gfs really goes wild with that low Sunday night. Euro is rather mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Gfs might be an hour or damaging west winds, especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 6z was even more ridiculous lol. even half of that would be a net gain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 LOL That's the wildest 925 mb wind run I've seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z gfs really goes wild with that low Sunday night. Euro is rather mundane. 33mb drop in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Man that LLJ really starts cranking over coastal Maine. It could get a little wild on the coast right up through EPO. The NBM mean wind gust at RKD is 70 mph with a standard deviation range of 60-80 mph. Overnight model runs really amped the wind threat up from when I left yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Rips and roars Sunday night into Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 “Accu”weather is calling for max gusts to 51mph where I am. My station has recorded a mid to high 30’s mph gust during big wind events. Not sure if it’s not precise enough to record a true higher gust or if we simply don’t get them higher than that here. We’re facing south and have a 20-30 acre field in front of us so the wind can blow. I’m hoping for lower gusts but will get the generator staged just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 GFS has ~110 knots at 850mb too. Not sure I've seen that (outside of tropical obviously). Thinking this may be a bit overdone but the NAM also has this and Euro as well (though can't tell what max is on euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Is there some credence to a possible Storm around the 18th? Saw some comments from a few on a live feed a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 GFS is cranking for Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rips and roars Sunday night into Monday Ya for the cape and SE Mass, and coastal Maine….CT is pretty much out of any real fun imo as far as winds go….go east my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s stein and anything we hope to come would be after. I'd rather Stein, than rainy. No one wants their torchy holiday week, with burgers grilling, and hacky sack games a-flowing disrupted by rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya for the cape and SE Mass, and coastal Maine….CT is pretty much out of any real fun imo as far as winds go….go east my friend. For all of SNE.. and yes you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For all of SNE.. and yes you It's pretty sad that I am partially looking forward to the winds that you tout. normally I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For all of SNE.. and yes you Our winds come on the backside. We could see gusts 35-45 mph one the backside once winds flip WNW-NW and we crank the CAA with steepening low-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 december isn't a winter month anymore and white christmases are disappearing 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 There are going to be some flooding concerns Sunday into Monday. Some spots are going to see 4-5'' of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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