December 2023

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wolfie has entered the chat in 3…2….1….

Lol…off hour OP run at 16 days lead time, nuff said. But hey if it makes yuz feel better, by all means lock it in. 

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

5 inches of unexpected snow here in 2002

 

I was all over that one on the old forum.  Never believed for a minute snow wasn’t going to happen once that low closed off.  I was surprised how badly all the models missed it other than the GFS

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

4 inches from a ULL 1983 Christmas eve. Just perfect. Kids went nuts when they came outside to see it snowed overnight 

My best was 2017.....7" late Xmas eve/ early AM.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My best was 2017.....7" on Xmas AM.

2002 was pretty nice. Over a foot…I think you stayed mainly snow there too in Wilmington though maybe a period of sleet crap at the height for a time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

2002 was pretty nice. Over a foot…I think you stayed mainly snow there too in Wilmington though maybe a period of sleet crap at the height for a time. 

That was second....got going later in the day...had several inches and then some sleet to slot.

[dryslot]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s def a boring pattern for now. When northern stream starts getting more active it will be interesting. Middle of this month has a classic December Nino ridge across central Canada which is a good bet for Stein around here unless you get lucky with a well-timed southern streamer…but I think we start shifting things more favorable in the final 10 days of the month. 

We've lacked that for a few years now, More northern stream interaction and clippers have been absent, Hopefully it does become favorable 3rd week of the month and on.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

5 inches of unexpected snow here in 2002

 

I remember that because it started here with 7" of unexpected snow Dec 24/25. The forecast the morning of Dec 24 was flurries only. But a huge nw shift gave us a storm. 

 

3 of the past 6 Christmases have had perfectly timed snows here.

4.5" synoptic on Dec 24, 2017, falling late afternoon through evening. Then another inch in LES christmas day.

3.6" on Dec 24/25, 2020, from 11pm christmas eve thru mid afternoon christmas day

2.4" last christmas eve and day atop a few inches of snow from the 23rd.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I was all over that one on the old forum.  Never believed for a minute snow wasn’t going to happen once that low closed off.  I was surprised how badly all the models missed it other than the GFS

I was forecasted to half inch of snow on Christmas Eve after a brief changeover.

Temps started to drop in the afternoon at a fast pace.

 

[weathafella]

Throwing 2020 ITT is provocative man! (You know I’m kidding…)

[powderfreak]

25F SLK, 20 MVL, 1 BML.

WAA hitting western NNE while eastern NNE is clear, wedged, and radiating.

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Throwing 2020 ITT is provocative man! (You know I’m kidding…)

Lol I forgot. That was a wild one with the temp contrasts. I always hear you guys joking about grinch storms. But I wonder if there is actually any mathematical support to having a little more bad luck on the east coast on Dec 24-25 than surrounding dates. 

 

What's interesting is that locally in SE MI we have stayed remarkably consistent with our 50/50 white Christmas climo despite awesome decembers in the 2000s and less desirable ones the last decade.

[CT Rain]

GFS turns Monday AM into a decent snowstorm for Vermont. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS turns Monday AM into a decent snowstorm for Vermont. 

Yeah, that would be a foot of snow for the high elevations from Stowe to Jay Peak.  Low confidence still...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I think SNE fun time is probably Christmas or just after through January.  The next two weeks seem like a lot of thread the needle will be needed even for where I am in the deep interior.

[dendrite]

Goofus with 80kt offshore at 950mb. Could be nasty at the Shoals.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus with 80kt offshore at 950mb. Could be nasty at the Shoals.

How will the shoals of Tolland fare?

[qg_omega]

What a terrible pattern for the rest of the month 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

What a terrible pattern for the rest of the month 

I have to agree.  SNE may be able to sneak in an event over the interior but curtains closed, wrt plowable snow, until after Christmas for many.

[weathafella]

The pacific is beholden to MJO.  MJO is notoriously poorly forecasted.  Hopefully we’re wintry before new years like 1993 which was warm until it went full arctic for a couple of months.  It was ok then-I was still in my 40s but my preference is a mild winter with a lot of snow ala 2012-13.

[Lava Rock]

17.1F. Thought it would be colder

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[Lava Rock]

GFS turns Monday AM into a decent snowstorm for Vermont. 

I'm sure PF will be posting pow shots. They always land on their feet

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[Damage In Tolland]

Rips and roars Sunday night 

[ineedsnow]

6 hours ago, CT Rain said:

GFS turns Monday AM into a decent snowstorm for Vermont. 

6z GFS even better 

[ineedsnow]

Let's keep this trend going even flips here 

[Torch Tiger]

Thankfully we have a cutter Sunday night. Otw nothing to look at

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, CT Rain said:

GFS turns Monday AM into a decent snowstorm for Vermont. 

6z was even more ridiculous lol.

[Boston Bulldog]

I would normally caution against those snowfall maps on the backside of a cutter’s cold front. As we frequently see, CAA often arrives too late/dries everything out. 

This looks a bit different though, given how disjointed this system is as the primary passes through the Great Lakes. The redevelopment along the front grows more impressive with each run, and that seems to be the dynamic boost needed to overcome the issues noted above. Good trends for resorts along the spine of the Greens!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA.  For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it.  Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and *edit* serviceable to possibly a good pattern in the 15-20.  Thats all we know for now.  Adding this part in, you don't need the perfect pattern to get snow post December 15th, all we need is to get rid of the hostile pattern. 

[Boston Bulldog]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

6z was even more ridiculous lol.

How legitimate is this emerging upslope signal once the coastal low passes? I assume further east trends would help bring the flow into a more favorable direction 

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA.  For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it.  Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and possibly favorable in the 15-20.  Thats all we know for now. 

I don't hate the GEFS look around the 12/20-12/22 timeframe