December 2023

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Luke, you and I agree on very little. And that’s all well and good.  I agree with what Steve said…because it makes sense to me. Perhaps he has the data you’re seeking? I don’t know if he does. But I still agree with what he said. 

Was talking here not anywhere else and Luke knows it.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was talking here not anywhere else and Luke knows it.

That’s what I figured…but wasn’t sure. Thanks for the clarification.  And I still agree lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

Based on the most recent decade being pretty skimpy, any linear regression trend on White Xmas around here is going to be negative.
 

But if you throw another 2000s type decade on the dataset, then it might change it…we had a really brutal stretch of lean White Xmas in the 1930-early 1950s period…so if you started from there and ended in a year like 2010, you’d have a positive trendline. 
 

I don’t think it’s going to become more common than the 20th century mean though…a huge component of a White Xmas is keeping existing snowpack from melting out before that date and warmer temps simply make that harder. Even if you partially offset it with somewhat more frequent sizable events from working with more moisture. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was talking here not anywhere else and Luke knows it.

Show me the data, that’s all. Thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Based on the most recent decade being pretty skimpy, any linear regression trend on White Xmas around here is going to be negative.
 

But if you throw another 2000s type decade on the dataset, then it might change it…we had a really brutal stretch of lean White Xmas in the 1930-early 1950s period…so if you started from there and ended in a year like 2010, you’d have a positive trendline. 
 

I don’t think it’s going to become more common than the 20th century mean though…a huge component of a White Xmas is keeping existing snowpack from melting out before that date and warmer temps simply make that harder. Even if you partially offset it with somewhat more frequent sizable events from working with more moisture. 

That 34% number has been consistent per 30 year . Talking basically low 32% to 36% high 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Show me the data, that’s all. Thanks.

Xmacis.rcc-acis.org 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Luke, you and I agree on very little. And that’s all well and good.  I agree with what Steve said…because it makes sense to me. Perhaps he has the data you’re seeking? I don’t know if he does. But I still agree with what he said. 

I’m not saying I don’t agree. Simply asked where he gets that from. 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed Steve.

But the agenda folks try to tell us otherwise.   

Did you really think George had an agenda when he posted that?

Both can be correct.  It’s getting warmer and snowfall chances can be remaining relatively flat.  Singular events are very possible and reasonably unchanged.  A slight warming trend can be quite good along the boundary/margins.  Snow and temps can be different discussions.

This is a weather forum, sometimes folks read way too much into statements made on the fly by someone.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Show me the data, that’s all. 

Does suck that NWS doesn't keep depth anymore. 

[DavisStraight]

I remember one year when I was in high school, maybe 76 or 77 we had a decent storm on the 21st or 22nd with a cold arctic air front moving in and blowing the snow around, just great timing that year for a white Christmas,

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Did you really think George had an agenda when he posted that?

Both can be correct.  It’s getting warmer and snowfall chances can be remaining relatively flat.  Singular events are very possible and reasonably unchanged.  A slight warming trend can be quite good along the boundary/margins.  Snow and temps can be different discussions.

This is a weather forum, sometimes folks read way too much into statements made on the fly by someone.

Lol…I wasn’t talking about George. I agreed with what Ginxy said. If folks don’t agree, that’s cool too. Whatever. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

I remember one year when I was in high school, maybe 76 or 77 we had a decent storm on the 21st or 22nd with a cold arctic air front moving in and blowing the now around, just great timing that year for a white Christmas,

Nothing will beat 1997 though…looked hopeless but then on the 21st we start seeing that chance of an inch or so on 12/23….the night before they said 1-3” inland but wouldn’t be surprised if it was less…then bam, 18” later. 
 

2012 was also a fun one even though it was way less snow. Had about inch or so of currier and Ives fluff predawn until about 9am Xmas morning when it was looking bleak even the day before. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I remember one year when I was in high school, maybe 76 or 77 we had a decent storm on the 21st or 22nd with a cold arctic air front moving in and blowing the snow around, just great timing that year for a white Christmas,

1975 was brutally cold after 12 to.15. 

[DavisStraight]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing will beat 1997 though…looked hopeless but then on the 21st we start seeing that chance of an inch or so on 12/23….the night before they said 1-3” inland but wouldn’t be surprised if it was less…then bam, 18” later. 
 

2012 was also a fun one even though it was way less snow. Had about inch or so of currier and Ives fluff predawn until about 9am Xmas morning when it was looking bleak even the day before. 

I knew you'd remember back then, we've had some surprises, hoping for one this year.

[DavisStraight]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

1975 was brutally cold after 12 to.15. 

Could have been 75, it was one of my first years in high school.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing will beat 1997 though…looked hopeless but then on the 21st we start seeing that chance of an inch or so on 12/23….the night before they said 1-3” inland but wouldn’t be surprised if it was less…then bam, 18” later. 
 

2012 was also a fun one even though it was way less snow. Had about inch or so of currier and Ives fluff predawn until about 9am Xmas morning when it was looking bleak even the day before. 

4 inches from a ULL 1983 Christmas eve. Just perfect. Kids went nuts when they came outside to see it snowed overnight 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Could have been 75, it was one of my first years in high school.

It was. My first year of College, home on break, spent the week in the Berks skiing

[Cyclone-68]

3 hours ago, Layman said:

Is it this book?  It's dirt cheap and sounds interesting.  I'm going to grab it if it is.  EDIT:  I bought it regardless 

https://amzn.to/3RbQKIO

Oh wow such memories. I have a copy of this buried in a closet somewhere 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree with Kev we may have to rewrite Christmas songs. 
 

We brought these dews to you ba rum ba bum bum……..

I’ve got no snow for you ba rum ba bum bum……

I think you mean “ram us in the bum”

btw …. “Oh the weather outside is frightful”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Does suck that NWS doesn't keep depth anymore. 

When did they cut that off?

Congrats to the future btw. Generations to come will be able analyze history with as much data as they want. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

4 inches from a ULL 1983 Christmas eve. Just perfect. Kids went nuts when they came outside to see it snowed overnight 

I say it every year but Christmas Day 2002 in the Albany area is absolutely unmatched.

I knew at the time, this was something that would never happen again in my life, no matter where I lived.

I remember measuring just shy of two feet late on Christmas Day.  It didn’t start snowing until that morning.  And it went absolutely bonkers

ALB recording 1.79” QPF and 19.2” of snow during 12/25 calendar day. That’s the best Christmas Day snow event one can run into.

SXUS99 KALB 261155
RERALB

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002

...NEW ALL-TIME RECORD CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION...
 
AT 1159 PM CHRISTMAS DAY 2002...THE OFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE 
DAY AT ALBANY WAS 19.2 INCHES.  THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS CHRISTMAS 
RECORD OF 11.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 1978.  THE PRECIPITATION AT ALBANY 
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY 2002 ALSO SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH A 
TOTAL OF 1.79 INCHES.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.12 INCHES...ALSO 
SET IN 1978.  ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW... 
JUST AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK IN 1978.  

AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.  AS OF 645 AM 
EST THURSDAY THE STORM TOTAL WAS 21.0 INCHES. THIS EVENT GOES DOWN 
AS BEING ALBANY'S 4TH GREATEST DECEMBER SNOWSTORM SINCE THE 
BEGINNING OF RECORDS IN 1885...AND IT IS THE 9TH GREATEST SNOWSTORM 
OVERALL.

TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE STORM STOOD AT 1.91 INCHES.

$$
ELH/GG

 

[dryslot]

You know the upcoming pattern is not favorable when we have to live past history of back in the day.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was. My first year of College, home on break, spent the week in the Berks skiing

Yeah his description fits with the weather that happened in 1975 even though I didn’t personally witness that. Big system between 12/20-12/22 and then cold. 
 

1976 actually had a mini-grinch on 12/21 that wiped out a moderate event that fell 4 days earlier…and 1977 was just putrid and in the 40s for the week leading into Xmas which wiped any thin pack that was remnant from earlier that month. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think you mean “ram us in the bum”

btw …. “Oh the weather outside is frightful”

Wolfie has entered the chat in 3…2….1….

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I say it every year but Christmas Day 2002 in the Albany area is absolutely unmatched.

I knew at the time, this was something that would never happen again in my life, no matter where I lived.

I remember measuring just shy of two feet late on Christmas Day.  It didn’t start snowing until that morning.  And it went absolutely bonkers

ALB recording 1.79” QPF and 19.2” of snow during 12/25 calendar day. That’s the best Christmas Day snow event one can run into.

SXUS99 KALB 261155
RERALB

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002

...NEW ALL-TIME RECORD CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION...
 
AT 1159 PM CHRISTMAS DAY 2002...THE OFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE 
DAY AT ALBANY WAS 19.2 INCHES.  THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS CHRISTMAS 
RECORD OF 11.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 1978.  THE PRECIPITATION AT ALBANY 
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY 2002 ALSO SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH A 
TOTAL OF 1.79 INCHES.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.12 INCHES...ALSO 
SET IN 1978.  ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW... 
JUST AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK IN 1978.  

AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.  AS OF 645 AM 
EST THURSDAY THE STORM TOTAL WAS 21.0 INCHES. THIS EVENT GOES DOWN 
AS BEING ALBANY'S 4TH GREATEST DECEMBER SNOWSTORM SINCE THE 
BEGINNING OF RECORDS IN 1885...AND IT IS THE 9TH GREATEST SNOWSTORM 
OVERALL.

TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE STORM STOOD AT 1.91 INCHES.

$$
ELH/GG

 

5 inches of unexpected snow here in 2002

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You know the upcoming pattern is not favorable when we have to live past history of back in the day.

It’s def a boring pattern for now. When northern stream starts getting more active it will be interesting. Middle of this month has a classic December Nino ridge across central Canada which is a good bet for Stein around here unless you get lucky with a well-timed southern streamer…but I think we start shifting things more favorable in the final 10 days of the month. 

[MJO812]

Interesting read

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/january-february-winter-forecast-cold-anomaly-snow-united-states-pattern-fa/

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You know the upcoming pattern is not favorable when we have to live past history of back in the day.

Snowstorms of the past and trying to sell a damaging south wind event at 850mb as exciting.  The forum is cooking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Interesting read

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/january-february-winter-forecast-cold-anomaly-snow-united-states-pattern-fa/

You had me at cold-anomaly-snow...

[vegan_edible]

I say it every year but Christmas Day 2002 in the Albany area is absolutely unmatched.
I knew at the time, this was something that would never happen again in my life, no matter where I lived.
I remember measuring just shy of two feet late on Christmas Day.  It didn’t start snowing until that morning.  And it went absolutely bonkers
ALB recording 1.79” QPF and 19.2” of snow during 12/25 calendar day. That’s the best Christmas Day snow event one can run into.

SXUS99 KALB 261155RERALBRECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY655 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002...NEW ALL-TIME RECORD CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION...AT 1159 PM CHRISTMAS DAY 2002...THE OFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY AT ALBANY WAS 19.2 INCHES.  THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS CHRISTMAS RECORD OF 11.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 1978.  THE PRECIPITATION AT ALBANY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY 2002 ALSO SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH A TOTAL OF 1.79 INCHES.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.12 INCHES...ALSO SET IN 1978.  ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW... JUST AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK IN 1978.  AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.  AS OF 645 AM EST THURSDAY THE STORM TOTAL WAS 21.0 INCHES. THIS EVENT GOES DOWN AS BEING ALBANY'S 4TH GREATEST DECEMBER SNOWSTORM SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDS IN 1885...AND IT IS THE 9TH GREATEST SNOWSTORM OVERALL.TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE STORM STOOD AT 1.91 INCHES.$$ELH/GG

 

i grew up in albany and that was the most memorable christmas of my life. i was 7 at the time and i remember it snowing so hard we couldnt go visit family in syracuse. i also remember it being the year i got my first legit skateboard and it was so hard not being able to go out and skate that day. making a snowfort helped with that though. i dream of another christmas like that