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40/70 Benchmark
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What's interesting about that is between 144 and 200 hours there are discerned height falls N/NE of Hawaii.  Prior runs had that, however, it appeared to be more a function of wave space passing through - this is both that, and actually deepening.  There's adding -d(hgt).

Anyway that's usually indicative of a rising PNA.  Minus there, then couples to positive response over the western continent. 

So, I went over and checked the numerical index. Base upon the 00z suite, both the EPS and GEFs rise from -1 SD, tomorrows local nadir, to +1.5 by the 15th.  Moving that particular index a total +2SD isn't always trivial. 

Actually, going back three cycles the index had been trending more positive over successive runs, from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPS.

Yet despite these changes, we're not seeing 'restoring' event triggered (yet) downstream east of 100W over the continent.  I might suggest that if the above trend were to continue, and add yet more -d(hgt), there could be more +d(hgt) added to the west ... and then things change

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its like the Kutchera snow maps...they are only of any use in very select circumstances.

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix 

image.thumb.png.4bfe8fbe685032aff9f9478d7b31aa52.png

so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic 

image.thumb.png.157f83871bc2fe5dcc4fcddc7fc1003d.png

 

There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix 

image.thumb.png.4bfe8fbe685032aff9f9478d7b31aa52.png

so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic 

image.thumb.png.157f83871bc2fe5dcc4fcddc7fc1003d.png

 

There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

Why always use a valley pit like BDL that never gets good wind? That’s like using ORH for big heat . 
 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Rolling that pattern forward would probably equate to big January potential

I am extremely confident that January will not be boring and have been since about August. Hindsight will be 20/20, but IMO this is the easiest of the 10 seasons I have issued for.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

same here. If January and/or February do not work out I am going to be at a loss for words. 

As we’ve said before, a great pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a great result. I’d certainly sign up for the very good/great look, but we can still get stumped.  Sometimes ya need a little good fortune too, to go along with the nice look. Law of averages say we’ll get some good fortune imo. I think we’ll do fine moving forward. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

As we’ve said before, a great pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a great result. I’d certainly sign up for the very good/great look, but we can still get stumped.  Sometimes ya need a little good fortune too, to go along with the nice look. Law of averages say we’ll get some good fortune imo. I think we’ll do fine moving forward. 

Right...this is where you have to play a hunch and get subjective and anecdotal. We have just endured a several year stretch when essentially everything that could possibly go wrong has gone wrong. I think this is the year that ends, especially since we are going to have a few rough years on tap in other year or two with descending solar triggering increasing geomagnetic fields.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As we’ve said before, a great pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a great result. I’d certainly sign up for the very good/great look, but we can still get stumped.  Sometimes ya need a little good fortune too, to go along with the nice look. Law of averages say we’ll get some good fortune imo. I think we’ll do fine moving forward. 

No doubt.

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12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll imbibe in a legit HWW event but they are generally so rare around here in the interior. The 12/17/00 one though was crazy. I think we gusted 65-70 and lost power for a few hours. 

That was a good one. I remember power flashes being seen and losing power as well. 

 

The cutters in Jan '96 were pretty wild. We had damage in both. I think I told you this story. I was working at Stop & Shop at the time. I was bringing in the carriages (I volunteered to weenie out) and the wind was ripping the sign apart. An old lady came out with her carriage and just got blown over. I remember laughing really hard because it happened so quick..but then I realized she was not getting up. At least I helped her lol. I think this was the last in the series of cutters. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a good one. I remember power flashes being seen and losing power as well. 

 

The cutters in Jan '96 were pretty wild. We had damage in both. I think I told you this story. I was working at Stop & Shop at the time. I was bringing in the carriages (I volunteered to weenie out) and the wind was ripping the sign apart. An old lady came out with her carriage and just got blown over. I remember laughing really hard because it happened so quick..but then I realized she was not getting up. At least I helped her lol. I think this was the last in the series of cutters. 

A record breaking/historic winter here to boot in 1996. 

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