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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Faulty memory on my part.   After spending an hour researching MNF results, It seems to have been 11/20/1989.....ushering in a very cold six weeks.

I lived dec 1989 in a slumlord house courtesy of Brad Moore in Johnson, VT.  Brad tried to skirt laws and inspections.  He succeded.  In dec 89 i slept in full ski gear every night.  Visine would freeze.  He built two bedrooms off an old house and there was literally a 2 inch gap between the house and these added rooms.  That meant that -20f air would come steaming in non stop.  It went down to -30 and up to -15 for several days.  We didnt go above -10 for a week.  This cold lasted 2 weeks,  there was 3 ft of depth already before the cold hit.  And more snow came on the tail end and it was at least 4 ft deep.  But as usual, BAM dec 25. thaw, warmth and melting,  lost 60% in a day or 2 and then a rainy cold nye, that then all froze up.  

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get a multi day rain event for all like the 6z gfs shows.

We have zero snow here, so it’s no matter. Lol. Yesterday the same run showed multi day snows. Off hour garbage both ways. 
 

18z and 6z are such trash…almost every single time it shows something weird either way.  

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We have zero snow here, so it’s no matter. Lol. Yesterday the same run showed multi day snows. Off hour garbage both ways. 

That 20-22 period has been showing as a massive cutter for days now. Plan accordingly, something is coming in that timeframe, and it’s likely going to be rain 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 20-22 period has been showing as a massive cutter for days now. Plan accordingly, something is coming in that timeframe, and it’s likely going to be rain 

Lol..ok Brett, thanks for the silly advice 15-16 days from now.  My only point was that the off hr runs are trash because they show bizarre solutions(both ways so I’m not just saying rains). Yesterday it showed multi day snows.  That’s my point. Flip a coin at this point. 
 

Almost zero confidence in anything past 4-5 days now due to mid to long range modeling struggling. We all know where you stand, you and the others are on the same as last year’s train. Thanks for the insightful advice. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..ok Brett, thanks for the silly advice 15-16 days from now.  My only point was that the off hr runs are trash because they show bizarre solutions(both ways so I’m not just saying rains). Yesterday it showed multi day snows.  That’s my point. Flip a coin at this point. 
 

Almost zero confidence in anything past 4-5 days now due to mid to long range modeling struggling. We all know where you stand, you and the others are on the same as last year’s train. Thanks for the insightful advice. 

It depends on how quickly we can get the ULL out of AK...EURO guidance pulls it out faster, which likely gets us a winter storm right around Xmas. The GFS is slower.....so its rain.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It depends on how quickly we can get the ULL out of AK...EURO guidance pulls it out faster, which likely gets us a winter storm right around Xmas. The GFS is slower.....so its rain.

Of course…but Happy Brett has us raining and preparing for something 15 days from now. Ridiculous.  Should we be preparing for snow 15 days from now?  Perhaps we should ask the insightful Brett that question?  

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