December 2023

[dryslot]

Second day in a row we don't get out of the 20's for a high, Already down to 20.4°F, Looks like first single digits could be overnight here.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just let em go. When their Xmas decorations end up in your yard.. you can pop them . They don’t understand the setup 

I never said it would translate to the surface.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

I never said it would translate to the surface.

But I did 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But I did 

Euro does have dews into the 60s down there. It’s worth watching.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Euro does have dews into the 60s down there. It’s worth watching.

That would certainly help. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro does have dews into the 60s down there. It’s worth watching.

It’s the same setup south of pike as the one we had last year. I remember all the MA posters asking where big winds and damage was . South of pike got crushed. Especially the eastern 2/3 of CT and RI up To south of Scooter in S Wey .Gusted to and over 60 in many spots 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

50kt? It’s like double that.

He posted 60mph at 5k feet…lol

 

But yeah, if it actually gets to 90+ knots, then there’s at least some potential to mix down 50+ at sfc, though even usually that isn’t enough because of inversion. 
 

edit: I reread his tweet…looks like he was just coloring minimum of 60 at 850 and not saying that was the cap…not sure why we’d even care about values that low. You’d prob want to start at 80+. 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s the same setup south of pike as the one we had last year. I remember all the MA posters asking where big winds and damage was . South of pike got crushed. Especially the eastern 2/3 of CT and RI up To south of Scooter in S Wey .Gusted to and over 60 in many spots 

Our batting average on these is like late-career Chris Davis levels. For every “hit” there’s like 10 whiffs. 

[Lava Rock]

27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully not a rip like John Kerry.

 

lol, funny, but what a hypocrite he is telling everyone how we're polluting the world when he flies around in his fancy jet

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our batting average on these is like late-career Chris Davis levels. For every “hit” there’s like 10 whiffs. 

We seem to get these more often the last few years than we do snowstorms 

[CoastalWx]

Don't recall any good events last year Kev. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't recall any good events last year Kev. 

It was mainly south of you. I believe it was One of the winter months. Jan or Feb? It was a pikesouth deal and east of HFD

[MJO812]

[klw]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully not a rip like John Kerry.

 

And there we were worried about cows and methane contributing to climate change.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are pretty clueless beyond D10 right now. Check out this animation for the last 48 hours on the EPS…12z on the 4th, 12z yesterday and 12z today….all 3 of these are valid Dec 18th 00z

 

 

Yeah .. Scott and I were musing over the utter lack of predictive skill in the mid month. man -

 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah .. Scott and I were musing over the utter lack of predictive skill in the mid month. man -

 

I mean, just look at the EPO region…went from deep blue to orange in 48 hours. Horrific continuity…we wouldn’t be surprised on an OP run but for an ensemble mean to do that is notable. Shows how clueless guidance is right now. 

[forkyfork]

the peak winds aloft happen around 12z and winds are sse. snooze

[Lava Rock]

Looks delightful. Truck needs to be washed free of the salt

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the peak winds aloft happen around 12z and winds are sse. snooze

I suspect the bigger wind threat from that frontal ordeal's really going to be more so convection dependent.  Could see a ribbon squall with some wild rad tags tripping warnings...  General 35 to maybe 40 mph gusts out ahead go W on that squall wedge with a turbine gusting along with sheets of blinding rain for 5 minutes while it side-winders through the area.   

This type of frontal nature, with deep warm dp transport out ahead of that kind of squal/cold frontal combo ...I've seen this probably half the Nov and Dec I've lived on the planet.

[Damage In Tolland]

Folks that live in SNE understand that SE winds are the most damaging due to prevalent winds being WNW. A 50+ SE gust does far more damage than 50+ NW gusts. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks that live in SNE understand that SE winds are the most damaging due to prevalent winds being WNW. A 50+ SE gust does far more damage than 50+ NW gusts. 

With no leaves? Meh. Damage this time of year has to include heavy wet snow or ice.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

With no leaves? Meh. Damage this time of year has to include heavy wet snow or ice.

Ok 

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, just look at the EPO region…went from deep blue to orange in 48 hours. Horrific continuity…we wouldn’t be surprised on an OP run but for an ensemble mean to do that is notable. Shows how clueless guidance is right now. 

And has been. Take a white Christmas to the bank .

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks that live in SNE understand that SE winds are the most damaging due to prevalent winds being WNW. A 50+ SE gust does far more damage than 50+ NW gusts. 

C’mon…this won’t be anything extraordinary.  I know you’re dying for some active weather, we all are.  But this is most likely not it, and nothing that special for most outside of cape Cod and Nantucket.  That’s my take. But I mean if it makes you feel better to hype it up, then I guess you’re doing what makes you happy.  Hope you’re right, and I’m wrong. 

[Torch Tiger]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With no leaves? Meh. Damage this time of year has to include heavy wet snow or ice.

Should be at least 45kt gusts for SOME southern folks if model soundings are fairly accurate.  That'll damage

[NW_of_GYX]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Second day in a row we don't get out of the 20's for a high, Already down to 20.4°F, Looks like first single digits could be overnight here.

Deep winter out there today, love to see it 

[dendrite]

18z gfs mixes me out for a good 9-12hrs Sunday night now. Get those dews up to 55-60 and I may sleep with the windows partially open.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

18z gfs mixes me out for a good 9-12hrs Sunday night now. Get those dews up to 55-60 and I may sleep with the windows partially open.

Hope you sleep with an umbrella 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Should be at least 45kt gusts for SOME southern folks if model soundings are fairly accurate.  That'll damage

Won’t be like the ones we had in the 90’s with trees bent to the ground.. but if these soundings are anywhere close to correct .. there’ll be 50-64 mph gusts .. mainly south of pike and east of a Springfield/ HFD line. Basically the area that sectors. We’ve seen these so many times.. it’s generally that setup 

[78Blizzard]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

And has been. Take a white Christmas to the bank .

Maybe for NNE.  Very doubtful for SNE, despite the clueless guidance.