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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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I'm glad that some eastern weenies are grabbing some snow.  

Lucky for me I am content on not getting snow this year.  I have come to terms with winter rains sandwiched between bouts of cold, and an overall dreadful, incoming season.  Late May and early June can't come soon enough.  The only months I welcome are June, September and October  

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43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

13.1°F was the low here, Snow pack makes a difference on holding the cold temps, It will be a thing of the past after this weekend.

First single-digit low this morning, down to 1°.  I think our pack will take a hit Sun/Mon but will survive, especially as that snow -eater storm's appetite seems to be lessening, per recent models.


Trees remain loaded though a decent wind would make it look like a blizzard.   Looking down our road yesterday afternoon, the house is beyond this view.

IMG_1219[1].JPG

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I tried to say this few days ago about not being too invested in a screamer, but folks were sold it was a done deal at a week out lol.  

This one guy in a Facebook group I am in was hyping up 70mph winds...smart dude, too...I was incredulous. He was going on about how interesting the storm was, and I was just like "get it over with".

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly have to watch the Cape and Islands for some big wind gusts Sunday night into early Monday morning. GFS has a pretty hefty llvl jet at 925. Get sfc temps around 60 or just a tick over and there could be some 65-70 mph gust potential there. 

Cape is different...I don't even count that.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cape is different...I don't even count that.

Agreed there...I mean for those who forecast and for that area it's a different ballgame but we're not seeing 60-70 mph gusts inland or region wide unless we get a helluva line of convection to plow through which I don't see happening :lol: 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Agreed there...I mean for those who forecast and for that area it's a different ballgame but we're not seeing 60-70 mph gusts inland or region wide unless we get a helluva line of convection to plow through which I don't see happening :lol: 

Yes, this is what he meant.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is what he meant.

Some see pretty colors on the wind maps and 925 or 850 and think that will equate down to the sfc. We all know how difficult it is to truly mix down winds in these setups. More often not that too, the stronger the winds in those levels, the stronger the inversion too. If mixing down those winds were easy here in these setups we wouldn't have any trees...or trees would probably grow to be 10' tall.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Some see pretty colors on the wind maps and 925 or 850 and think that will equate down to the sfc. We all know how difficult it is to truly mix down winds in these setups. More often not that too, the stronger the winds in those levels, the stronger the inversion too. If mixing down those winds were easy here in these setups we wouldn't have any trees...or trees would probably grow to be 10' tall.

Yea, he posted that stupid surface wind map from the EURO...at like day 5-6. I was just like, "useless".

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he posted that stupid surface wind map from the EURO...at like day 5-6. I was just like, "useless".

:facepalm: 

There was someone who did that at one of the TV stations (not Ryan's) in CT a few months back. I think it was for that TS that ended up giving some impact to eastern Maine. They showed a wind gust map on a Monday afternoon for Saturday across CT which showed gusts like 50-60 mph. Whatever drives the hype I guess

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

:facepalm: 

There was someone who did that at one of the TV stations (not Ryan's) in CT a few months back. I think it was for that TS that ended up giving some impact to eastern Maine. They showed a wind gust map on a Monday afternoon for Saturday across CT which showed gusts like 50-60 mph. Whatever drives the hype I guess

Oh, yea....I sniffed out how fraudulent that system was at literally like day 7...one post, and dismissed.

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Just now, bwt3650 said:

That would probably save a lot of the pack and maybe even be a net gain above 2000' as modeled...You would toss?

I'm not very sold on it right now. It still gets very mild out ahead of it. What looked to happen on the GFS was these subtle sfc waves that develop along the front and that could be one reason for the PTYPE alogirthms to spit out some blue. But I don't see much out ahead of the front which is going to prevent temperatures from rising quite a bit, even up north. Dewpoints too should surge well into the 40's. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, yea....I sniffed out how fraudulent that system was at literally like day 7...one post, and dismissed.

It drives me nuts when there is a "storm potential" and it's blatantly obvious the threat is minimal-to-none but some people will try to defend the potential by saying, "but you never know what will happen"...that's such a BS phrase. 

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