dryslot Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 On 11/18/2023 at 2:24 PM, dryslot said: Lets get something to pop first week of December. Looks like that may be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a loaded 18z gfs one day trend in the blocking is very nice. this does not look like a head fake 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Man.. Mets gone wild today . Expect big big things folks 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. Mets gone wild today . Expect big big things folks Promising trends but I’d wait until closer and actual threats emerge to expect big things. But at least it’s not a pattern that looks like garbage. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Promising trends but I’d wait until closer and actual threats emerge to expect big things. But at least it’s not a pattern that looks like garbage. Agreed. These guys going all in are things you love to see 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed. These guys going all in are things you love to see I don’t think anybody is all in at this stage. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think anybody is all in at this stage. yeah. all in? no very intrigued and getting a bit excited at the potential? yes i would wait another few days to let the -NAO hit the short range 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. Mets gone wild today . Expect big big things folks I think we all need to remember how unsuccessful these blocking episodes have been with the poor pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 We'll see what happens. I have learned not to be eager to pound my chest and spike footballs...a decade or seasonal forecasts is humbling. I am certainly comfortable with my pre season thoughts, at this point. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think we all need to remember how unsuccessful these blocking episodes have been with the poor pacific Pacific is nothing like last year, though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed. These guys going all in are things you love to see Yeah, rare you see so many mets going wild for a wintry long-range look. Seems like nothing can go wrong. 1 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, rare you see so many mets going wild for a wintry long-range look. Seems like nothing can go wrong. I'm with you on December...we will have some shots, which is already a leg up on any recent month of December..but I need to see the whites of a threat's eyes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: same. i do LR forecasting at my company with a couple others and 2009 was a top analog since the summer The prospect of 2009 with a more pedestrian DM mean NAO intrigues me a great, great deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pacific is nothing like last year, though. Yeah this looks much better…esp after about the 3rd or 4th of December. We’re actually popping a bit of western ridging on all ensemble guidance after that time. We know the NAO blocking is extremely likely at this point given that the onset of it is now inside a week, just want to see that improvement on the PAC side get closer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this looks much better…esp after about the 3rd or 4th of December. We’re actually popping a bit of western ridging on all ensemble guidance after that time. We know the NAO blocking is extremely likely at this point given that the onset of it is now inside a week, just want to see that improvement on the PAC side get closer. I'm excited....will be firing up the guidance package this coming week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 This map perfectly conveys the snowfall distribution that I had in mind doing my outlook. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The prospect of 2009 with a more pedestrian DM mean NAO intrigues me a great, great deal. Can you expound upon why a less negative NAO could still produce snowstorms in 2023? It seems to me the deeply negative NAO of 2009-2010 may be off the board but maybe other factors come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Can you expound upon why a less negative NAO could still produce snowstorms in 2023? It seems to me the deeply negative NAO of 2009-2010 may be off the board but maybe other factors come into play. You don't need an exotic anomaly like that...in fact, it was so extreme that it was of a detriment to most of NE, as it wrapped milder maratime air in from the NE and also blocked some systems from coming up the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This map perfectly conveys the snowfall distribution that I had in mind doing my outlook. Yea. It matches my AN nw of SE zones thoughts as well. I’m all in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You don't need an exotic anomaly like that...in fact, it was so extreme that it was of a detriment to most of NE, as it wrapped milder maratime air in from the NE and also blocked some systems from coming up the coast. Bunch of mountain men trying to hang themselves from moose antlers up in The County. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 Pacific is nothing like last year, though.Nothing about this year is like last year..you guys have been all over this. There was a bit of a hangover in October with the torch trolls, but I think if people have realistic expectation and If the baseline is last year, expect big things. 2009 our relaxation period was mid jan if I remember, then we went wild in feb starting in the mid Atlantic first, correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You don't need an exotic anomaly like that...in fact, it was so extreme that it was of a detriment to most of NE, as it wrapped milder maratime air in from the NE and also blocked some systems from coming up the coast. That was the Snowicane winter where we got hosed and southwest of us cleaned up, wasn't it? We actually did ok total wise, but the Midcoast and New York cleaned up if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Nothing about this year is like last year..you guys have been all over this. There was a bit of a hangover in October with the torch trolls, but I think if people have realistic expectation and If the baseline is last year, expect big things. 2009 our relaxation period was mid jan if I remember, then we went wild in feb starting in the mid Atlantic first, correct? . Yeah the mid-Atlantic didn’t really get much snow until the very end of January. We actually had a nice storm in early January in New England with a retrograde job that gave widespread 6-10” type totals with some much higher jackpots in NNE with upslope/lake Champlain enhancement. Then we had the MLK storm that was pretty solid over interior MA. Honestly, by the end of January, it actually hadn’t been a bad winter at all over interior SNE. Things turned for the worse in February though from a frustration standpoint. Missing KU after KU. 2 suppressed and one retrograding right on top of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: That was the Snowicane winter where we got hosed and southwest of us cleaned up, wasn't it? We actually did ok total wise, but the Midcoast and New York cleaned up if I remember correctly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not sure it’s the right take, but to me the 47-67” season totals on Long Island are some of the more impressive numbers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 Yeah the mid-Atlantic didn’t really get much snow until the very end of January. We actually had a nice storm in early January in New England with a retrograde job that gave widespread 6-10” type totals with some much higher jackpots in NNE with upslope/lake Champlain enhancement. Then we had the MLK storm that was pretty solid over interior MA. Honestly, by the end of January, it actually hadn’t been a bad winter at all over interior SNE. Things turned for the worse in February though from a frustration standpoint. Missing KU after KU. 2 suppressed and one retrograding right on top of us. Ahhh I remember the KUs now…wasn’t up in jay yet back then, but was in northern jersey and even there, we missed until late feb. I remember 24 plus just 75 miles south. One of the tightest lines I’ve ever seen. They crept up to respectability over the course of the next few weeks, but I think Philly hit 18 plus three in a row. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 I’m not sure it’s the right take, but to me the 47-67” season totals on Long Island are some of the more impressive numbers.Think they hit 30 in upton on one of those storms that year..meanwhile jersey was advisory level…the 124 in Hunter is impressive too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the mid-Atlantic didn’t really get much snow until the very end of January. We actually had a nice storm in early January in New England with a retrograde job that gave widespread 6-10” type totals with some much higher jackpots in NNE with upslope/lake Champlain enhancement. Then we had the MLK storm that was pretty solid over interior MA. Honestly, by the end of January, it actually hadn’t been a bad winter at all over interior SNE. Things turned for the worse in February though from a frustration standpoint. Missing KU after KU. 2 suppressed and one retrograding right on top of us. That's what I remember most about that year, GFS came out the night before and the New Yorkers were high fiving while we were looking at heavy rain to Maine. I'd take my chances with another year like that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 almost 18 years to the day of an all-time fav, Dec 05 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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