December 2023

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely some signs of shuffling though at the ends of the runs. I think my original hope of maybe the 20th though isn’t happening. Like Will mentioned yesterday, if we could sneak something in after the 12th or so that would make things feel “better” if you will.

We won’t 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We won’t 

Coastal areas better rack and stack tomorrow before the spigots are shut off, removed, and trashed for the rest of the month.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely some signs of shuffling though at the ends of the runs. I think my original hope of maybe the 20th though isn’t happening. Like Will mentioned yesterday, if we could sneak something in after the 12th or so that would make things feel “better” if you will.

Kev just swerved driving to Manchester . So folks are feeling festive the true grinch still has potential around Xmas 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Coastal areas better rack and stack tomorrow before the spigots are shut off, removed, and trashed for the rest of the month.  

So you guys really think the rest of the month is shot and done. Even if it is, still love the holidays and we'll still enjoy every moment. The truth be told, I'm doubtful that it'll be shot completely from now to the end of the month.

[CoastalWx]

Funny how NAM is much more widespread vs hRRR.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So you guys really think the rest of the month is shot and done. Even if it is, still love the holidays and we'll still enjoy every moment. The truth be told, I'm doubtful that it'll be shot completely from now to the end of the month.

I think I have 2-3 posts outlining my thoughts anyways. Just earlier today. Maybe a window 13th-17th. Then perhaps more hostile to around Christmas and then improving quickly around Christmas give or take.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely some signs of shuffling though at the ends of the runs. I think my original hope of maybe the 20th though isn’t happening. Like Will mentioned yesterday, if we could sneak something in after the 12th or so that would make things feel “better” if you will.

One thing I’ve noticed as we get closer to verification is guidance has been showing more split flow out west once it gets inside of D10-11 which is one of the reasons that mid-Dec period has cooled a bit in recent runs. Guidance initially shows a phased deep trough out west but then it turns into a SW trough but a ridge over top of it as we get closer. The base of the trough breaks off.  We’ll see if it sticks. 
 

If that happens again as we approach that 12/18-12/21 period, then maybe we can stay in the game even if it’s not a very cold pattern or ideal look further upstream in the PAC.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing I’ve noticed as we get closer to verification is guidance has been showing more split flow out west once it gets inside of D10-11 which is one of the reasons that mid-Dec period has cooled a bit in recent runs. Guidance initially shows a phased deep trough out west but then it turns into a SW trough but a ridge over top of it as we get closer. The base of the trough breaks off.  We’ll see if it sticks. 
 

If that happens again as we approach that 12/18-12/21 period, then maybe we can stay in the game even if it’s not a very cold pattern or ideal look further upstream in the PAC.  

Yeah I saw that too. Would need good timing though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Coastal areas better rack and stack tomorrow before the spigots are shut off, removed, and trashed for the rest of the month.  

Congrats from you down to S Wey ti the Cape tonight in 1-4”.. while we once again left outside peeping in window at naked woman .

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I saw that too. Would need good timing though. 

At least If we get the split flow look to materialize , there is a legit chance for that period 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats from you down to S Wey ti the Cape tonight in 1-4”.. while we once again left outside peeping in window at naked woman .

I'm prepared for a few flakes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm prepared for a few flakes. 

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm prepared for a few flakes. 

You’re in a great spot 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

You’re in a great spot 

This is your passive aggressive way of hoping I see nothing. I had 16" of "great spots" from you all last season. Thanks bud.

[Hazey]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing I’ve noticed as we get closer to verification is guidance has been showing more split flow out west once it gets inside of D10-11 which is one of the reasons that mid-Dec period has cooled a bit in recent runs. Guidance initially shows a phased deep trough out west but then it turns into a SW trough but a ridge over top of it as we get closer. The base of the trough breaks off.  We’ll see if it sticks. 
 

If that happens again as we approach that 12/18-12/21 period, then maybe we can stay in the game even if it’s not a very cold pattern or ideal look further upstream in the PAC.  

This is what i meant by encouraging signs. Long range ensembles want to torch but it gets watered down as it moves into the midrange. This is the pattern  persistence we watch for.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is your passive aggressive way of hoping I see nothing. I had 16" of "great spots" from you all last season. Thanks bud.

You did say nam is widespread compared to hrrr,  but I’m guessing that was Widespread dustings for e ma

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You did say nam is widespread compared to hrrr,  but I’m guessing that was Widespread dustings for e ma

Yeah widespread coatings to maybe half inch or so.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

This is what i meant by encouraging signs. Long range ensembles want to torch but it gets watered down as it moves into the midrange. This is the pattern  persistence we watch for.

I think we just need another PAC flush. Hopefully we rock late Dec into Jan. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah widespread coatings to maybe half inch or so.

Put that in KFS algorithm and it spits out 1-4”

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing I’ve noticed as we get closer to verification is guidance has been showing more split flow out west once it gets inside of D10-11 which is one of the reasons that mid-Dec period has cooled a bit in recent runs. Guidance initially shows a phased deep trough out west but then it turns into a SW trough but a ridge over top of it as we get closer. The base of the trough breaks off.  We’ll see if it sticks. 
 

If that happens again as we approach that 12/18-12/21 period, then maybe we can stay in the game even if it’s not a very cold pattern or ideal look further upstream in the PAC.  

I don't think there's a whole helluva lot of predictive skill right now - more entropy than is even normal model-climate  ( for the general reader here).

Typically by day 10 in the ensemble means there is a better sense of where the R-wave anchor points are situated, but in this case ... that's a very difficult layout to ascertain.   See below...  each ovoid is an identifiable L/W ( reasonably consistent among the EPS and GEPS, too), and when putting this in cinema ...they are marching right along.

This is a reshuffling hemisphere is what we are looking at.  Predictive skill goes out the window.  The wave over the continent appears to be more 'standing' in nature, which I argue is an artifact more so of MT forcing and the perennial footprint just perhaps a little more amplified - in other words, it may not be as real as it looks there - speculative. But that Pacific is undulating through -PNA:+PNA:-PNA ...etc, as each of those L/Ws propagates through the region east of the Date Line. 

How those will periodically transmit signals down stream will vary in just about equal positive and negative values, up and down, ever couple days or so.  Resulting, there could and likely will be events materializing that were not there two days ago...then, mysteriously vanish two days in the future, whenever this sort of reshuffle is going on. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Put that in KFS algorithm and it spits out 1-4”

"east of the river"

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

"east of the river"

NWS has a detailed paper on the KFS thou they stopped posting verification scores a week after it’s inception 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think there's a whole helluva lot of predictive skill right now - more entropy than is even normal model-climate  ( for the general reader here).

Typically by day 10 in the ensemble there is a better sense of where the R-wave anchor points are situated, but in this case ... that's a very difficult layout to ascertain.   See below...  each ovoid is an identifiable L/W ( reasonably consistent among the EPS and GEPS, too), and when putting this in cinema ...they are marching right along.

This is a reshuffling hemisphere is what we are looking at.  Predictive skill goes out the window.  The wave over the continent appears to be more 'standing' in nature, which I argue is an artifact more so of MT forcing and the perennial footprint just perhaps a little more amplified - in other words, it may not be as real as it look there - speculative. But that Pacific is undulatory through -PNA:+PNA:-PNA ...etc, as each of those L/W propagates through the regions east of the Date Line. 

How those will periodically transmit signals down stream will varying in just about equal positive and negative values, up and down.  There could be events materializing that were there two days ago, that mysteriously vanish two days in the future, when this sort of reshuffle is going on. 

That's a good illustration of the reshuffling we've mentioned. Lots of waves there...almost to the point where we need something to eventually balance this and I think is a function of tropical forcing. I think we see that near Christmas. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a good illustration of the reshuffling we've mentioned. Lots of waves there...almost to the point where we need something to eventually balance this and I think is a function of tropical forcing. I think we see that near Christmas. 

 

Exactly ...

In dailies/practical terms, there's nothing there to be either disappointed with, or happy about.  It's really oblivious. 

Agree,  be it MJO ...or a Asian wave break in the flow ...something to impact enough forcing to synergy/constructively interfere.

One thing I am noticing is the WPO is ( numerically) negative, despite the EPO flatlined.  If an MJO is destined to propagate out of the Marine region and comes into western Pac up underneath, the two could certainly do what we are asking above.  If ( and hopefully when) that happens, we see a pattern change from this marching shit above into something more classical.  It could do it pretty quickly too - we'll see.

[NorEastermass128]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

You’re in a great spot 

Yeah…S Weymouth looks good. 

[CoastalWx]

4” for Rockport

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

4” for Rockport

Lol, .01" west of the Annisquam River Bridge

[512high]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

4” for Rockport

Scott will anything make it to NH seacoast?(North Hampton/Rye area?)

[NorEastermass128]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

4” for Rockport

My dad can’t wait to break out his snowblower. I’m not expecting much here in Salem/Beverly. 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Exactly ...

In dailies/practical terms, there's nothing there to be either disappointed with, or happy about.  It's really oblivious. 

Agree,  be it MJO ...or a Asian wave break in the flow ...something to impact enough forcing to synergy/constructively interfere.

One thing I am noticing is the WPO is ( numerically) negative, despite the EPO flatlined.  If an MJO is destined to propagate out of the Marine region and comes into western Pac up underneath, the two could certainly do what we are asking above.  If ( and hopefully when) that happens, we see a pattern change from this marching shit above into something more classical.  It could do it pretty quickly too - we'll see.

Okay, in deference to the above ... I like reading this from the MJO desk:

• The RMM-based MJO signal continues to remain amplified, with the enhanced
convective envelope approaching the Maritime Continent. Dynamical models depict
continued eastward propagation during the next 2-3 weeks.
• The dominance of low-frequency modes (ENSO, IOD) has been declining over the last
few weeks, while the MJO has become stronger and more coherent.

I also just want to remind - the MJO is not a pattern drive.  It's a modulator.  It will positively(negatively) interfere with the surrounding super synopsis ... if the latter is receptive(not receptive) to it's forcing.  Part of which is the Pacific ENSO aspects ( down stream of the IOD brick wall of head-on collision sudden pattern death!) ... Anyway, this particular MJO "means more" than priors if you ask me, because as they hint ... this projection of it has more a positive interference.

I just checked the overnight numerical telecons and the EPO is suddenly collapsed toward neutral between the 12th and 20th. That could be an early nod to physical forcing transmitting down wind of the erstwhile -WPO.  Which is actually the lagged correlation between those fields in the total Pacific arc manifold. 

Short words ... yeah, there's hope approaching the 20th for winter enthusiasts. 

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Asian wave break

That would be a great band name.