December 2023

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s maybe a chance in that 13-17 window of the month before it gets hostile again. 

Expectations are set pretty low at this point, but it would be nice to get on the board going into the end of the month.....anything after last year will feel like a blizzard

[WX-PA]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

GEFS are overall fairly torchy for week 2, especially towards the end/X-Mas week. 

 

I don't think this looks torchy but who knows

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday morning for eastern areas could be first measurable for them....worth watching. We're saturated up to about the -12C layer with low level lift and of course we know along the coast, the salty air produces excellent snow growth down into the -8C or even warmer layer. The low levels are cold too so no rain issues....only factor will be if we can get a few hours of steady snow or if it;s just a few scattered snow showers that can't sustain.

Could be a narrow area just west of the CF that does relatively well. But if the NAM is right, might be a lot of flakes in the air at least for those removed from best moisture. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s maybe a chance in that 13-17 window of the month before it gets hostile again. 

EPS far more "favorable" (still pretty meh) in that period than GEFS. Kind of funny because about a week ago, the GEFS were more weenie-ish and the EPS was kind of meh for that period....now GEFS is a torch while EPS is still basically showing "meh"....would be nice to sneak something in there.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Expectations are set pretty low at this point, but it would be nice to get on the board going into the end of the month.....anything after last year will feel like a blizzard

I was hoping something in place for a change just before Christmas, but I'm not so sure now. But the ensembles are showing signs of shuffling at the end of the runs so we'll see. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WX-PA said:

I don't think this looks torchy but who knows

 

 

Those are the weeklies and that is the last week of the month, not week 2.

 

Here's what the EPS shows for that Dec 13-17 period. You can see it's not all that bad. +EPO so it's not an arctic airmass type pattern, but enough wetsern ridging to give us chances if it came to fruition...as I said to Scott just a minute ago, GEFS is more hostile

 

 

 

 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday morning for eastern areas could be first measurable for them....worth watching. We're saturated up to about the -12C layer with low level lift and of course we know along the coast, the salty air produces excellent snow growth down into the -8C or even warmer layer. The low levels are cold too so no rain issues....only factor will be if we can get a few hours of steady snow or if it;s just a few scattered snow showers that can't sustain.

[weatherwiz]

I would take that...especially if we can pump the higher heights a bit farther west into Greenland

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a narrow area just west of the CF that does relatively well. But if the NAM is right, might be a lot of flakes in the air at least for those removed from best moisture. 

I should have mentioned the immediate coast in places like PYM county might be rain issues because of the CF, but most of the land area is west of the CF, so it would be plenty cold to the west of that for snow.

If we can punch some decent localized lift, the soundings are pretty decent, so someone could see a little surprise.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday morning for eastern areas could be first measurable for them....worth watching. We're saturated up to about the -12C layer with low level lift and of course we know along the coast, the salty air produces excellent snow growth down into the -8C or even warmer layer. The low levels are cold too so no rain issues....only factor will be if we can get a few hours of steady snow or if it;s just a few scattered snow showers that can't sustain.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a narrow area just west of the CF that does relatively well. But if the NAM is right, might be a lot of flakes in the air at least for those removed from best moisture. 

Nammy has flakes even into eastern CT. Pretty funny to see that Thursday impulse get absolutely shredded as it dives into New England. That’s a more frustrating thing to witness than tracking torches two weeks into the future on models. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'm expecting a blog post from Ray by tomorrow morning on the event. He can title it "A Cranberry Bog Festivus".

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I should have mentioned the immediate coast in places like PYM county might be rain issues because of the CF, but most of the land area is west of the CF, so it would be plenty cold to the west of that for snow.

If we can punch some decent localized lift, the soundings are pretty decent, so someone could see a little surprise.

And some mid level RH too moving in so maybe seeder-feeder to help? 

 

Anyways, not to beat this to death..but nothing much else to talk about.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I should have mentioned the immediate coast in places like PYM county might be rain issues because of the CF, but most of the land area is west of the CF, so it would be plenty cold to the west of that for snow.

If we can punch some decent localized lift, the soundings are pretty decent, so someone could see a little surprise.

Yeah, might be mostly rain here. But places like Carver or Plymouth along and to the west of RT3 might stay snowy

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Nammy has flakes even into eastern CT. Pretty funny to see that Thursday impulse get absolutely shredded as it dives into New England. That’s a more frustrating thing to witness than tracking torches two weeks into the future on models. 

Yeah that was the Dec 6th system we were originally hoping had enough room to amplify into a real storm....it's a very good shortwave which is why we still may see some snow despite it not getting the room it needs to amplify downstream ridging. We would've had a good enough airmass in place too.

[weathafella]

I think 12/11-15 is a potential window for good wintry wx.   Pretty consistently chilly on the ensembles so who knows....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

25 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If you're referring to me, I have super thick skin. Has nothing to do with what I want to hear. I'm a realist. I know we're not in a good pattern right now and that's perfectly fine. And if I wanted to turns out just like last year then it is what it is. Trust me it doesn't run my life. But I'm no dummy. I've been around a long time. There are a few people who are not here to be constructive as I mentioned. Say what you want but I'll stick by what I said as well. Anyway, back to forecasting. I'm done with my rant. 

 

I think many here aren’t that constructive per se ,mostly just post pro snow stuff bc that is what most want to see (especially the amateurs) and why most take time out of their lives to hang on a weather board in winter  .
 

 A few either really Enjoy warmth or like the reactions from people who usually are annoyed by warmista posts but to me the only reason to be banned is being extremely mean and hurtful (personal attacks that aren’t just “foo foo” insults and or just posting non stop with “agree with me or else ideas” that are way over their heads. Trolling is subjective . Omega to me doesn’t get in fights or take the bait when people insult him so that is more why I don’t have a problem , he doesn’t disrupt the board . He may send weenies realing but when you post an idea or map with it I don’t see the issue personally to me that’s on weenie frailty . Maybe im the minority 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was the Dec 6th system we were originally hoping had enough room to amplify into a real storm....it's a very good shortwave which is why we still may see some snow despite it not getting the room it needs to amplify downstream ridging. We would've had a good enough airmass in place too.

Yeah, it’s a shame. That’s a real missed opportunity. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those are the weeklies and that is the last week of the month, not week 2.

 

Here's what the EPS shows for that Dec 13-17 period. You can see it's not all that bad. +EPO so it's not an arctic airmass type pattern, but enough wetsern ridging to give us chances if it came to fruition...as I said to Scott just a minute ago, GEFS is more hostile

 

 

 

 

 

Would you favor a blend at this time frame or just wait to see it come in focus by late this week 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s maybe a chance in that 13-17 window of the month before it gets hostile again. 

Hostile again? I thought the weeklies and ensembles were offering a pattern change closer to the 20th?

[dryslot]

Looks like some nice radar returns at BML with the IVT developing.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hostile again? I thought the weeklies and ensembles were offering a pattern change closer to the 20th?

Prob more a few days later than that. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hostile again? I thought the weeklies and ensembles were offering a pattern change closer to the 20th?

For Se mass until the PAC gets semi decent i think hostility reigns . By Xmas I think other areas can (climo-wise) work with that pattern but SE mass ..I dunno 

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think many here aren’t that constructive per se ,mostly just post pro snow stuff bc that is what most want to see (especially the amateurs) and why most take time out of their lives to hang on a weather board in winter  .
 

 A few either really Enjoy warmth or like the reactions from people who usually are annoyed by warmista posts but to me the only reason to be banned is being extremely mean and hurtful (personal attacks that aren’t just “foo foo” insults and or just posting non stop with “agree with me or else ideas” that are way over their heads. Trolling is subjective . Omega to me doesn’t get in fights or take the bait when people insult him so that is more why I don’t have a problem , he doesn’t disrupt the board . He may send weenies realing but when you post an idea or map with it I don’t see the issue personally to me that’s on weenie frailty . Maybe im the minority 

He’s 5-posted so he can’t really get into responding to much. 
 

30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Would you favor a blend at this time frame or just wait to see it come in focus by late this week 

Blending is usually the way to go at this time frame…obviously we’ll know more on which one is “more correct” as we get closer. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

I don't think this looks torchy but who knows

 

that's the euro and week 3, but yeah that's a colder stormy look

[DavisStraight]

Looks like the real cold is in Russia right now, Yakutsk is -57 right now, seems early even for them to be that cold.

[Ginx snewx]

The pattern change begins 12/15 and is complete by 12/21. Merry white Christmas to all and to all g'nite

[8611Blizz]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like the real cold is in Russia right now, Yakutsk is -57 right now, seems early even for them to be that cold.

Much of central and eastern Europe getting smoked lately.

[brooklynwx99]

pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. might be able to pull off a light event given this pattern

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. might be able to pull off a light event given this pattern

18z op went wild with the NAO in weenie range. Probably wrong, but it would be one way to keep things a little more interesting. 

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Much of central and eastern Europe getting smoked lately.

Big snowstorm in Moscow, though I don't know what big means to them, they look to be in a pretty dry area.