December 2023

[Hazey]

Call 8” final. Could have been a bit more if I was a weather board person. Nice out there. We winter…at least for a short while.

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that real wedging or just the model's attempt at resolving mountain perturbation

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Oh yeah ...

Okay, that leads me to wonder if this grows in future guidance.   I think those events in the field are too amplified given the 'super synopsis' .   How much so remains to be seen, but if that flattens out some we may end up with more BD trouble.  

[mreaves]

..Addison County...
  Bristol                 0.4   645 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer

...Caledonia County...
  3 NNE Danville          7.9   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 S Wheelock            7.5   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  West Barnet             5.0  1003 AM 12/04  Public
  North Kirby             4.8   759 AM 12/04  Public
  2 WNW Wells River       4.3   701 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 SW Sutton             3.6   700 PM 12/03  Co-Op Observer
  4 W Barnet              3.5   800 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  N St. Johnsbury         2.3   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Chittenden County...
  WSW Williston           1.0   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  3 SSW Williston         1.0   600 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  1 N Hinesburg           0.5   754 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 SW Hinesburg          0.5   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  5 NNE Underhill         0.5   650 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  3 SSW South Burlingt    0.5   730 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  Hinesburg               0.5   854 AM 12/04  Public
  4 NNE Underhill         0.2   730 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Essex County...
  4 WNW Maidstone         9.2   828 AM 12/04  Public
  Island Pond             9.0   830 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer
  Lunenburg               7.0   456 AM 12/04  Public
  2 NNW Lunenburg         6.0   515 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Franklin County...
  4 ESE Montgomery        1.0   600 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  5 WNW Fairfax           0.4   900 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  3 N Enosburg Falls      0.2   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Lamoille County...
  2 WSW Wolcott          10.0   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 SSW Eden              9.0   747 AM 12/04  Trained Spotter
  Morristown              8.5   911 AM 12/04  1,140` elevation
  2 N Johnson             6.5   715 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer
  Johnson                 6.5   650 AM 12/04  928` elevation
  Morrisville             3.0   731 AM 12/04  Public
  SW Stowe                2.6   730 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  3 N Smugglers Notch     2.1   730 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer

...Orange County...
  Chelsea                 8.0   930 AM 12/04  1,600` elevation
  3 SW Braintree          7.7   710 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  Williamstown            7.0   803 AM 12/04  Public
  Tunbridge               5.9   716 AM 12/04  Public
  West Newbury            5.5   802 AM 12/04  Public
  2 E Corinth Corners     4.0   700 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer
  ESE Chelsea             3.7   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 NNW Bradford          2.5   500 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 ENE West Fairlee      2.4   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Orleans County...
  4 NNE Greensboro       12.3   730 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  Albany                  9.8   600 AM 12/04  1,505` elevation
  7 SE Morgan             8.0   630 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  1 WNW Westfield         6.5   630 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 W Derby Line          6.0   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  Craftsbury Common       5.4   645 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  Newport Center          5.0   547 AM 12/04  Public
  Orleans                 4.0   618 AM 12/04  810` elevation

...Rutland County...
  1 W Shrewsbury          1.8   600 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Washington County...
  2 N Calais             11.0  1004 AM 12/04  Trained Spotter
  Northfield             10.5   721 AM 12/04  1,400` elevation
  3 NNW Woodbury          9.9   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  4 ENE Cabot             9.5   730 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  1 W East Cabot          9.0   719 AM 12/04  1,900` elevation
  1 NNW Woodbury          7.5   830 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  3 E Warren              7.0   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  1 NW Calais             6.5   833 AM 12/04  Trained Spotter
  1 SW East Barre         6.2   803 AM 12/04  NWS Employee
  1 S Northfield          5.7   723 AM 12/04  Public
  2 NNE Waterbury Cent    5.0   711 AM 12/04  Trained Spotter
  1 ESE Plainfield        4.6   700 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer
  Duxbury                 3.8   550 AM 12/04  1,000` elevation
  Marshfield              3.0   929 PM 12/03  1600` elevation
  1 ESE Montpelier        3.0   851 AM 12/04  Public
  2 N Moretown            3.0   800 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  2 N Northfield          2.2   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  3 NW Waterbury          1.0   600 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Windsor County...
  2 NE Rochester          8.5   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  Norwich                 7.3   530 AM 12/04  1,300` elevation
  Bethel                  7.0   827 AM 12/04  1,900` elevation
  Rochester               6.0   715 AM 12/04  Public
  3 S Ludlow              5.5   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  South Royalton          4.8   700 AM 12/04  900` elevation
  1 E Woodstock           2.5   800 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer
  NE Rochester            0.8   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

...Bennington County...
  1 NNE Landgrove         7.0   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

Windham County...
  1 WNW Wilmington        2.0   552 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  6 W West Brattleboro    1.4   800 AM 12/04  Co-Op Observer
  2 NNE Marlboro          1.4   800 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  1 NNE Rockingham        0.7   700 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS
  1 NE Putney             0.5   800 AM 12/04  CoCoRaHS

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1731746970211963097?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[TheMainer]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That looks ideal as a bad cutter could get here, 0.5" of rain and temps stay in the 30s and we'll still have a base

[Go Kart Mozart]

It's funny, but the 12z euro finds ways to keep us fairly cold over the next 10 days.  Sorta "overachieving in a lowzy pattern".

[kdxken]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1731746970211963097?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Another wind storm that won't materialize?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs winding up a massive cutter for the beginning of Christmas week. That would be fitting 

[Ginx snewx]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't think you would do well. How much you get?

I did/peeps bailed early up there as usual.

[codfishsnowman]

Thanks gentlemen for the great pictures up north!

some unexpected rain showers down here in between partly sunny periods 

[wxeyeNH]

3pm  Light snow.  Vis about 1.5 miles   32.3F  1/4" new past half hour

Snow settled 1" but the trees are still coated and will remain so for the next couple of days

[George001]

4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Answer me this. Do you think what you bring to the table here is constructive? Why are you here? What you actually are doing is sort of harassing. You make posts that try to trigger people, and trust me... I as well as most of us know the weather will have warm ups, but what you do is constantly push that Winter will not happen. 

Mods.... Why the hell are you still allowing this guy to post. He doesn't care about having a discussion, he only cares about making posts to piss people off. Get rid of this person. Truly a waste of posting. 

Ok... I'm done with my rant. 

We should not ban posters who have different opinions. Some of us legitimacy believe that this will be a mild winter. I want us to get 100 inches of snow this year with a historic blizzard every week, but I don’t want to read a posts supporting that viewpoint. Objectivity is important, and without the skeptics all we will have is a bunch of cheerleaders for snow. I strongly believe that the skepticism that posters like qqomega is necessary. Sometimes we get mild winters, and we get mild patterns even in good winter. It’s ok to acknowledge that things don’t look great right now on the models. Again, I want it to snow but I’m not going to ignore the models if they aren’t showing what I want to see.

There are several concerning signals such as the strength of the El Niño (1.8 trimonthly ONI for SON, likely hasn’t peaked yet), the -PDO, the raging pac jet currently in place, the current storm track, and the mild Atlantic SSTs. Those are real concerns that could derail winter and lead to a second straight ratter. However, there are also a couple of favorable signals. The polar vortex is expected to significantly weaken on the models, and while the nino is stronger than we would like to see, it is strengthening in the western regions. Over the past month it shifted from east based to basinwide. If it becomes west based, that could result in a more favorable outcome in January and February. The way I see it, there are more negative than positive signals right now so qqomegas concern is valid. Hopefully the positives end up outweighing the negatives. 

[Lava Rock]

59 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

That looks ideal as a bad cutter could get here, 0.5" of rain and temps stay in the 30s and we'll still have a base

IDK, 50s on Monday.....

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

We should not ban posters who have different opinions. Some of us legitimacy believe that this will be a mild winter. I want us to get 100 inches of snow this year with a historic blizzard every week, but I don’t want to read a posts supporting that viewpoint. Objectivity is important, and without the skeptics all we will have is a bunch of cheerleaders for snow. I strongly believe that the skepticism that posters like qqomega is necessary. Sometimes we get mild winters, and we get mild patterns even in good winter. It’s ok to acknowledge that things don’t look great right now on the models. Again, I want it to snow but I’m not going to ignore the models if they aren’t showing what I want to see.

There are several concerning signals such as the strength of the El Niño (1.8 trimonthly ONI for SON, likely hasn’t peaked yet), the -PDO, the raging pac jet currently in place, the current storm track, and the mild Atlantic SSTs. Those are real concerns that could derail winter and lead to a second straight ratter. However, there are also a couple of favorable signals. The polar vortex is expected to significantly weaken on the models, and while the nino is stronger than we would like to see, it is strengthening in the western regions. Over the past month it shifted from east based to basinwide. If it becomes west based, that could result in a more favorable outcome in January and February. The way I see it, there are more negative than positive signals right now so qqomegas concern is valid. Hopefully the positives end up outweighing the negatives. 

Trolls can and should be banned...people who aren't here in good faith will be banned/5-posted/suspended....whatever. Differing opinions are great....but keep the discourse cordial and scientific.

[ORH_wxman]

Fwiw, weeklies still showing a very favorable look for late Dec through the end of the run to mid-January.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, weeklies still showing a very favorable look for late Dec through the end of the run to mid-January.

yup, the signal has remained strong and is moving forward in time. you can see the transition occurring at the end of the EPS and GEPS

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

We should not ban posters who have different opinions. Some of us legitimacy believe that this will be a mild winter. I want us to get 100 inches of snow this year with a historic blizzard every week, but I don’t want to read a posts supporting that viewpoint. Objectivity is important, and without the skeptics all we will have is a bunch of cheerleaders for snow. I strongly believe that the skepticism that posters like qqomega is necessary. Sometimes we get mild winters, and we get mild patterns even in good winter. It’s ok to acknowledge that things don’t look great right now on the models. Again, I want it to snow but I’m not going to ignore the models if they aren’t showing what I want to see.

There are several concerning signals such as the strength of the El Niño (1.8 trimonthly ONI for SON, likely hasn’t peaked yet), the -PDO, the raging pac jet currently in place, the current storm track, and the mild Atlantic SSTs. Those are real concerns that could derail winter and lead to a second straight ratter. However, there are also a couple of favorable signals. The polar vortex is expected to significantly weaken on the models, and while the nino is stronger than we would like to see, it is strengthening in the western regions. Over the past month it shifted from east based to basinwide. If it becomes west based, that could result in a more favorable outcome in January and February. The way I see it, there are more negative than positive signals right now so qqomegas concern is valid. Hopefully the positives end up outweighing the negatives. 

George, I agree with you on almost everything you say. But this particular poster qqomegas constantly post things as a dig to everyone in the winter form. He is not here to bring constructive point of views. I have to respectfully disagree with you about this particular poster. He knows what he's doing and everyone else sees it as well. I'm just surprised he's still able to post. He's not objective about any of his posts. He definitely has an agenda. It only bothers me because that's all his posts are about.... To dig at the Winter forum. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

We should not ban posters who have different opinions. Some of us legitimacy believe that this will be a mild winter. I want us to get 100 inches of snow this year with a historic blizzard every week, but I don’t want to read a posts supporting that viewpoint. Objectivity is important, and without the skeptics all we will have is a bunch of cheerleaders for snow. I strongly believe that the skepticism that posters like qqomega is necessary. Sometimes we get mild winters, and we get mild patterns even in good winter. It’s ok to acknowledge that things don’t look great right now on the models. Again, I want it to snow but I’m not going to ignore the models if they aren’t showing what I want to see.

There are several concerning signals such as the strength of the El Niño (1.8 trimonthly ONI for SON, likely hasn’t peaked yet), the -PDO, the raging pac jet currently in place, the current storm track, and the mild Atlantic SSTs. Those are real concerns that could derail winter and lead to a second straight ratter. However, there are also a couple of favorable signals. The polar vortex is expected to significantly weaken on the models, and while the nino is stronger than we would like to see, it is strengthening in the western regions. Over the past month it shifted from east based to basinwide. If it becomes west based, that could result in a more favorable outcome in January and February. The way I see it, there are more negative than positive signals right now so qqomegas concern is valid. Hopefully the positives end up outweighing the negatives. 

In todays day and age some people label anything they don’t “enjoy”  as trolling . Thankfully moderators in this subform usually are smart . People can root for a mild winter and post long range products that support that . Big deal , get thicker skin . It almost hurts folks more when they fear it may occur.  The weather will do what it wants 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

IDK, 50s on Monday.....

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, the signal has remained strong and is moving forward in time. you can see the transition occurring at the end of the EPS and GEPS

 

Decent uncertainy in the Dec 14-20 timerange too....it's not a cold look, but it doesn't look like a furnace at the moment either. Some ensemble memebrs are torchy but others are actually near normal or slightly BN with a few snow chances. That period might define how many view the month overall....if we "Steal" a snow event in that week prior to the better pattern setting in, then the month would be viewed a lot better than waiting until later and hoping to get something....esp if the big snow events don't happen until January even if the pattenr becomes favorable in late Dec.

[tamarack]

19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

IDK, 50s on Monday.....

BGR milder than any place outside of FL, HI, TX and SoCal.  Of course.  (But the Grinch won't waste his efforts 2 weeks too soon.)

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm ...not sure about "very" as qualifying adjective in that discussion LOL

In my attempt at an unbiased observation there, the Weeklies 30 -day mean looks like a modestly amplified variant of the perennial base-line pattern across the continent. 

I won't go into much further than that.  Y'all have more experience working with that particular part of the Euro product suite - I'm just saying what that looks like.  It's only modestly more amplified than the perennial canvas.

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

BGR milder than any place outside of FL, HI, TX and SoCal.  Of course.  (But the Grinch won't waste his efforts 2 weeks too soon.)

I'll be in LA for Xmas. Probably be colder there.

[Torch Tiger]

GEFS are overall fairly torchy for week 2, especially towards the end/X-Mas week. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Another wind storm that won't materialize?

The
GEFS/EPS indicate both the southerly LLJ and PWAT plume to be 2-3
standard deviations above normal...which is a pretty good signal
this far out. In addition...the CIPS analogs are showing some modest
probabilities for a period of 40+ knot wind gusts. And the CSU
Machine learning probs are indicating a risk for convectively
induced severe winds.

 

[CoastalWx]

There’s maybe a chance in that 13-17 window of the month before it gets hostile again. 

[Snowcrazed71]

17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In todays day and age some people label anything they don’t “enjoy”  as trolling . Thankfully moderators in this subform usually are smart . People can root for a mild winter and post long range products that support that . Big deal , get thicker skin . It almost hurts folks more when they fear it may occur.  The weather will do what it wants 

If you're referring to me, I have super thick skin. Has nothing to do with what I want to hear. I'm a realist. I know we're not in a good pattern right now and that's perfectly fine. And if I wanted to turns out just like last year then it is what it is. Trust me it doesn't run my life. But I'm no dummy. I've been around a long time. There are a few people who are not here to be constructive as I mentioned. Say what you want but I'll stick by what I said as well. Anyway, back to forecasting. I'm done with my rant. 

 

[weatherwiz]

Verbatim, there would probably be a low topped line of convection with that front this upcoming weekend ahead of the cold front. There would likely be a pretty stout inversion though which would keep alot of the wind ay bay. Any wind would be very localized and within stronger pockets of convection. Sunday could be pretty gusty with steep llvl lapse rates and CAA. 

[ORH_wxman]

Wednesday morning for eastern areas could be first measurable for them....worth watching. We're saturated up to about the -12C layer with low level lift and of course we know along the coast, the salty air produces excellent snow growth down into the -8C or even warmer layer. The low levels are cold too so no rain issues....only factor will be if we can get a few hours of steady snow or if it;s just a few scattered snow showers that can't sustain.