December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm hoping to spend more time digging into the MJO. I'm pretty happy with the progression I've made this past year with digging into seasonal forecasting but one area I haven't had the opportunity to dig into yet is the MJO. I was starting to question myself a few weeks ago (and then got COVID so last week was a drag just to work) about how I thought tropical forcing west of the dateline was good for us (that's what my composites seemed to elicit) but if this is where MJO phases are warmer for us then something must be off with what I was doing. 

Maritime forcing isn't good.....west-central PAC near dateline is. It also varies by month.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You scored on the early season “cold” pattern, unfortunately that looks to change now for the next 4 to 6 weeks

Answer me this. Do you think what you bring to the table here is constructive? Why are you here? What you actually are doing is sort of harassing. You make posts that try to trigger people, and trust me... I as well as most of us know the weather will have warm ups, but what you do is constantly push that Winter will not happen. 

Mods.... Why the hell are you still allowing this guy to post. He doesn't care about having a discussion, he only cares about making posts to piss people off. Get rid of this person. Truly a waste of posting. 

Ok... I'm done with my rant. 

[weathafella]

Nice pictures NNEers!  Beautiful scene.

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maritime forcing isn't good.....west-central PAC near dateline is. It also varies by month.

If we have a low frequency standing wave near dateline by later this month, into January, then we want to root for MJO to be weak as we head later into winter....we'd prefer as little as possible disturbing the standing wave.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Point being someone who can no longer be objective probably needs a break

For me ..it feels like I can be objective but I dont trust models over 15-20 days out regardless of what they are showing . I dont think I’m alone . There is some reason for optimism but I’m not expecting it at this range .. just hoping look sustains as we get inside 10 days 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For me ..it feels like I can be objective but I dont trust models over 15-20 days out regardless of what they are showing . I dont think I’m alone 

Some just set themselves up for failure with how they're evaluating and interpreting long-range guidance. An OP solution showing a 982mb passing over the benchmark does not mean there is a credible storm threat. A 384 hour snowfall map showing 30-40'' of snow does not mean there are credible storm threats. All anyone should be looking at in the long-range is how the pattern is evolving. Some see the GFS show a blizzard at D12 and it's "let the tracking begin". 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For me ..it feels like I can be objective but I dont trust models over 15-20 days out regardless of what they are showing . I dont think I’m alone . There is some reason for optimism but I’m not expecting it at this range .. just hoping look sustains as we get inside 10 days 

Yeah 2-3 weeks out should always be treated with some skepticism....at least there's very good agreement right now though and that type of prog does match El Nino climo on some level.

[dryslot]

Up and In.

000
NOUS41 KGYX 041545
PNSGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-050345-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1045 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Maine...

...Androscoggin County...
Livermore Falls              8.0 in    0747 AM 12/04   Public
4 S Turner                   8.0 in    0845 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Turner                       7.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Livermore Falls 3.7 SSW      6.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 N Mechanic Falls           5.5 in    0730 AM 12/04   NWS Employee
2 N Lewiston                 5.3 in    0656 AM 12/04   Public
4.0 SE Poland                5.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
1 NW Auburn                  5.0 in    0551 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Auburn 2.1 NNW               5.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 E Lewiston                 5.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Lisbon                       3.8 in    0430 AM 12/04   Public
2 N Lisbon                   3.8 in    0541 AM 12/04   Public
Lisbon 0.6 S                 3.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1.8 W Lisbon Falls           3.1 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Durham 0.8 S                 3.1 in    0830 AM 12/04   COCORAHS


...Cumberland County...
5 S Bridgton                 5.2 in    0427 AM 12/04   Public
4 WSW New Gloucester         4.8 in    0859 AM 12/04   NWS Employee
2 ENE North Windham          4.4 in    0944 AM 12/04   Public
Cumberland Center 4.4 NW     4.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
North Windham 1.4 S          4.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
NWS Gray, ME                 3.6 in    0700 AM 12/04   NWS
Standish 1.3 SSW             3.4 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
6 NNE East Baldwin           3.0 in    1000 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
3 WSW South Windham          2.9 in    0915 AM 12/04   Public
Freeport 3.0 ENE             2.8 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 N Cumberland               2.8 in    0730 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
1 N South Windham            2.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Public
1 ESE Raymond                2.3 in    0459 AM 12/04   Public
2 NW Falmouth                2.3 in    0800 AM 12/04   Public
Cumberland                   2.1 in    0946 AM 12/04   Public
Sebago 2.4 ESE               2.0 in    0400 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Portland 5.4 NW              1.9 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Portland 5.5 WNW             1.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
3 SSE Gorham                 1.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
2 N Portland Jetport         1.1 in    0730 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Harpswell 3.1 WSW            1.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Portland 4.3 W               0.9 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Gorham                       0.8 in    0739 AM 12/04   Public
Gorham 0.5 SSE               0.8 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
South Portland 1.7 S         0.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Portland Jetport             0.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   ASOS

...Franklin County...
6 SSE Rangeley               12.2 in   0700 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Strong                       11.5 in   0922 AM 12/04   Public
Farmington 4.2 NW            11.0 in   0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Temple 1.8 W                 10.5 in   0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Farmington 3.9 N             10.5 in   0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 WSW Kingfield              9.5 in    0854 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
New Sharon 2.0 NW            9.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 NNW Eustis                 9.0 in    0830 AM 12/04   Public
1.0 W Kingfield              8.5 in    0530 AM 12/04   COOP
0.9 E New Sharon             8.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Farmington                   8.0 in    0400 AM 12/04   Public
5 SSE Rangeley               8.0 in    0730 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
2.1 NW Rangeley              7.0 in    0600 AM 12/04   COOP
Rangeley                     6.0 in    0600 AM 12/04   COOP

...Kennebec County...
2 W Vienna                   9.0 in    0855 AM 12/04   Public
Readfield 2.0 NNE            8.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Manchester 0.5 NE            8.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 NNE Augusta                8.0 in    0745 AM 12/04   Public
Wayne                        8.0 in    0930 AM 12/04   Public
Winslow                      6.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   Public
1 NW Farmingdale             6.2 in    0627 AM 12/04   Public
1 ESE Augusta                6.0 in    0654 AM 12/04   Public
Vassalboro                   5.5 in    0645 AM 12/04   Public
Hallowell                    5.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   Public
Farmingdale                  5.0 in    0811 AM 12/04   Public
3 NNE Dresden                4.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Public

...Knox County...
Hope                         5.0 in    1000 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Camden                       4.6 in    0800 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Union                        4.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Public
Camden                       4.4 in    0730 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Union 2.1 NNE                4.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Hope                         4.0 in    0702 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Union 3.0 W                  4.0 in    0705 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Camden 0.2 W                 2.1 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Rockland 1.4 E               1.8 in    0630 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 NW Thomaston               1.5 in    0736 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter

...Lincoln County...
Waldoboro 1.5 NNE            4.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Dresden 1.5 NW               4.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Dresden                      3.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Public
Newcastle 2.1 SW             3.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...Oxford County...
3 NW Newry                   11.6 in   0800 AM 12/04   NWS Employee
1.5 E Hartford               9.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Bethel 6 SSE                 8.2 in    0731 AM 12/04   COOP
Hartford 1.4 N               7.5 in    0823 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
3 WNW Brownfield             7.5 in    0945 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Oxford 5.3 SW                6.8 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 NNE Lovell                 6.0 in    0800 AM 12/04   Public
1 NW Otisfield               6.0 in    0800 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter

...Sagadahoc County...
2 NE Topsham                 2.5 in    0630 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
2.3 NW Bath                  2.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP

...Somerset County...
Solon 3.9 ESE                9.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Jackman                      9.0 in    0730 AM 12/04   Public
North New Portland 0.3 WSW   7.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Brighton Plantation 2.1 N    6.6 in    0645 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Jackman                      6.6 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Cornville                    6.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Anson                        6.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Harmony 3.0 SSE              6.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Skowhegan                    6.0 in    0717 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Palmyra 3.5 NW               5.9 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1.9 S Harmony                5.0 in    0630 AM 12/04   COOP

...Waldo County...
Belmont                      6.0 in    0830 AM 12/04   Public
Searsmont 3.5 WNW            5.7 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Palermo 3.3 ESE              5.5 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Belfast 3.9 NNE              4.1 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
3 WNW Searsport              4.1 in    0720 AM 12/04   Public
Prospect 2.6 W               4.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Winterport 2.9 N             4.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...York County...
5 NNW Acton                  4.2 in    0800 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Parsonsfield 3.9 NE          4.0 in    0655 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
North Waterboro 1.2 NE       3.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 N Alfred                   3.5 in    0945 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
5.0 NW Hollis                3.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Hollis Center 5.4 NW         3.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Cornish 5.6 ESE              3.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
4 NE Shapleigh               3.1 in    1000 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
2 SSW East Baldwin           2.8 in    0424 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
4 ESE Limerick               2.8 in    0926 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
3 NE Limington               2.5 in    0820 AM 12/04   Public
2 NNE Hollis                 1.9 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Biddeford 1.5 NNE            0.3 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Kennebunk 1.8 WNW            0.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 NNE Saco                   0.1 in    0808 AM 12/04   Public
North Berwick 5.3 W           T in     0745 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
South Berwick 1.3 E           T in     0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...New Hampshire...

...Belknap County...
New Hampton 4.1 N            6.5 in    0730 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
3 NNW Meredith               5.8 in    0748 AM 12/04   Public
Meredith 3.3 NNE             4.9 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 SW Sanbornton              4.0 in    0853 AM 12/04   Public
Belmont 1.7 SW               3.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1.5 N Laconia                1.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP

...Carroll County...
2 ESE Albany                 8.0 in    0630 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Jackson 3.7 NW               8.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 N Madison                  7.0 in    0532 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
East Sandwich                7.0 in    0600 AM 12/04   COOP
Center Sandwich 4.9 E        7.0 in    0600 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 WNW Center Sandwich        6.5 in    0718 AM 12/04   Public
1 ESE Albany                 6.0 in    0530 AM 12/04   Public
North Conway                 5.9 in    0800 AM 12/04   COOP
Wolfeboro 1.5 SE             4.8 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 ESE Wolfeboro              4.8 in    0730 AM 12/04   Public
Tamworth                     4.7 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
4 WNW Freedom                4.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
1 ESE Freedom                4.3 in    0654 AM 12/04   Public
Albany 2.8 SW                4.2 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 SSE Ossipee                3.0 in    0500 AM 12/04   Public
4 NW Brookfield              3.0 in    0500 AM 12/04   Public
Wolfeboro                    3.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   UCOOP

...Cheshire County...
Rindge 3.2 ESE               0.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
West Chesterfield 0.3 WNW     T in     0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1.6 W Keene                   T in     0700 AM 12/04   COOP

...Coos County...
Gorham                       11.5 in   0530 AM 12/04   COOP
Pinkham Notch                8.0 in    0545 AM 12/04   COOP
1.0 S Berlin                 7.0 in    0800 AM 12/04   COOP
Carroll 4.6 NE               6.4 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Lancaster 0.5 N              2.5 in    0600 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Jefferson 1 W                2.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Northumberland               2.5 in    0825 AM 12/04   COOP
Pittsburg                    2.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COOP
Whitefield                   1.0 in    1000 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter

...Grafton County...
Waterville Valley            9.7 in    0715 AM 12/04   Public
Ashland 2.4 NNW              8.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
5 ESE Hebron                 7.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Littleton 7.3 W              5.5 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 WNW Holderness             5.0 in    0716 AM 12/04   Public
Woodstock                    5.0 in    0900 AM 12/04   Public
Bristol 0.4 SSE              4.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 ESE Plymouth               4.0 in    0757 AM 12/04   Public
Hanover 5.2 NE               3.7 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
1 WSW Sugar Hill             2.8 in    0730 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Hanover 4.8 NE               2.7 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
5 SSW Lyme                   2.7 in    0921 AM 12/04   Public

...Hillsborough County...
2 WNW Windsor                2.2 in    0705 AM 12/04   Public
3 N Hillsborough             1.8 in    0800 AM 12/04   Public
2 N Nashua                   1.0 in    0745 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
0.9 N Greenville             1.0 in    0830 AM 12/04   COOP
Greenville 1.1 ENE           0.8 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Brookline 2.3 SW             0.3 in    0736 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Antrim 4.1 NW                0.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Temple 1.2 ENE                T in     0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...Merrimack County...
Northfield 2.8 E             5.8 in    0813 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Danbury 2.2 ESE              5.2 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
New London 0.8 S             4.5 in    0600 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Contoocook 9.1 NNW           4.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
South Sutton 1.3 SE          3.8 in    0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
2 SW Salisbury               3.7 in    0833 AM 12/04   Public
2 NNW Warner                 3.0 in    0844 AM 12/04   Public
Henniker                     2.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
Canterbury 2.5 SSW           1.8 in    0750 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Contoocook 0.6 NNW           1.5 in    0715 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Pittsfield 0.2 SSW           1.0 in    0600 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
3 E Canterbury               1.0 in    0722 AM 12/04   Public
Dunbarton 1.0 S              0.7 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Bow 1.6 NW                   0.7 in    0745 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Concord 2.4 E                0.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Concord 3.8 SSE              0.2 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Chichester 2.7 SSW            T in     1225 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Dunbarton 3.8 SE              T in     0800 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...Rockingham County...
1 ENE Exeter                 6.5 in    1000 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
1 N Deerfield                0.8 in    0800 AM 12/04   Public
Northwood 2.9 WSW            0.5 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Nottingham 1.2 S             0.3 in    0830 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Derry 0.9 ENE                 T in     0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
0.5 W Epping                  T in     0700 AM 12/04   COOP
2 SSE Newington               T in     0700 AM 12/04   ASOS
Derry 5.7 N                   T in     0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...Strafford County...
Barrington 3.2 E              T in     0645 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Rollinsford 2.0 WSW           T in     0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS

...Sullivan County...
Claremont                    5.5 in    0900 AM 12/04   Trained Spotter
West Unity 0.7 WSW           2.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
Cornish 1.1 ENE              1.0 in    0700 AM 12/04   COCORAHS
&&

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Some just set themselves up for failure with how they're evaluating and interpreting long-range guidance. An OP solution showing a 982mb passing over the benchmark does not mean there is a credible storm threat. A 384 hour snowfall map showing 30-40'' of snow does not mean there are credible storm threats. All anyone should be looking at in the long-range is how the pattern is evolving. Some see the GFS show a blizzard at D12 and it's "let the tracking begin". 

I don’t think that happens too much until a season progresses and maybe is a turd deeper in to January and it’s like a coping strategy to have something to follow , but we all should know day day 10 + events generally aren’t happening when it comes to a snow bomb…unless it holds to day 6 With a massive cutter it’s a little different because  there is hundreds  and hundreds of miles where it’s gonna be a rain driven or at least wet torch ..but when it comes to the snowy part of a storm ..that is usually much smaller in mileage and harder to have confidence in at longer time frames 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t think that happens too much until a season progresses and maybe is a turd deeper in to January and it’s like a coping strategy to have something to follow , but we all should know day day 10 + events generally aren’t happening when it comes to a snow bomb…unless it holds to day 6 With a massive cutter it’s a little different because  there is hundreds  and hundreds of miles where it’s gonna be a rain driven or at least wet torch ..but when it comes to the snowy part of a storm ..that is usually much smaller in mileage and harder to have confidence in at longer time frames 

It's almost even pointless to look at models beyond 5 days  I mean the last 2-3...maybe 3-4 winters modeling has been awful. I don't care what some graph of Z-scores at H5 show. The model-to-model consistency has been trash, the model run-to-model run has been trash, and confidence even inside 24 hours on many storms has been brutal at times. Even the ENS haven't been particularly reliable. We've had some instances where ENS probs of 6''+ were greater than 50% which turned into crap. 

[weatherwiz]

That's what also pisses me off about this AI voodoo crap. It's all really just crap. If a model at D5 is showing a solution and then wavers back-and-forth up until the day of the event and ended up being what the model showed at D5....IT IS STILL crap because how the hell are you supposed to know at D5 that solution would be correct? It wasn't correct because it kept going back and forth like a tennis ball across the court. 

[NW_of_GYX]

Paste


.

[Layman]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's almost even pointless to look at models beyond 5 days  I mean the last 2-3...maybe 3-4 winters modeling has been awful. I don't care what some graph of Z-scores at H5 show. The model-to-model consistency has been trash, the model run-to-model run has been trash, and confidence even inside 24 hours on many storms has been brutal at times. Even the ENS haven't been particularly reliable. We've had some instances where ENS probs of 6''+ were greater than 50% which turned into crap. 

There was a conversation on here the other day about this which I found interesting.  Seemed like some thought modeling was doing pretty well, especially compared to 10-15 years ago and others (maybe you?) expressed sentiment as you did above.  I'm curious what plays into a model being more-right or more-wrong.  Not sure there's an easy answer to that but it's an interesting discussion.  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

MJO spending sufficient time outside of the warm phases, not seeing any evidence of that yet.  Cold moving to our side of the globe (currently opposite) and an improved PAC.  Basically the opposite of what we will have for December

It just did ...  what am I missing here?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It just did ...  what am I missing here?

apparently to some we are still stuck in a La Nina, so there isn't really convincing anyone with this kind of stuff

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It just did ...  what am I missing here?

I was going to say that, but I figured just wait until we see it during winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the Maritime continent is going to swallow the world and the entire planet will be one giant phase 5.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was going to say that, but I figured just wait until we see it during winter.

Yeaaah, in his/her defense ... it may be a 'too early in the year' to pay dividends type of thing.  

I was serious when I asked, 'what am I missing here' because if there were/is some qualifying statement like ^ ( for example) then okay -

But out of hand that looks like a strong penetration through typical cold correlation over the Americas. 

The seasonality aspect is dubious though - if the pattern is receptive to the MJO than it's receptive - the two will be in a constructive interference.  Merely seeing a wave strength on the RMM is an insufficient basis alone.  We did clock one insignificant snow event over the t-giggedy holiday week, and this gig last night up N. ...etc...  There was also a -EPO burst about 10 days or more ago, which may have ultimately sourced the cold load for some of the chillier days.  Let's remind, Novie went down as a neggie month.  

[dendrite]

Goofus is trying to wedge up here this weekend. That's usually a bad sign at d6. I want my driveway to melt out.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus is trying to wedge up here this weekend. That's usually a bad sign at d6. I want my driveway to melt out.

I may plant my garden this weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus is trying to wedge up here this weekend. That's usually a bad sign at d6. I want my driveway to melt out.

Is that real wedging or just the model's attempt at resolving mountain perturbation

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I may plant my garden this weekend.

Grafting pears for Brian?

[weatherwiz]

43 minutes ago, Layman said:

There was a conversation on here the other day about this which I found interesting.  Seemed like some thought modeling was doing pretty well, especially compared to 10-15 years ago and others (maybe you?) expressed sentiment as you did above.  I'm curious what plays into a model being more-right or more-wrong.  Not sure there's an easy answer to that but it's an interesting discussion.  

Modeling is certainly much better than it used to be...I don't think there can be any argument about that. However, IMO I think the rate of improvement has definitely slowed some over the past 5-10 years. That s just my opinion though and I have nothing to really back that up. I'm sure all these model scores and graphs will say otherwise. 

As we all know, modeling and the atmosphere is extremely complex. For models to do what they do is beyond impressive. Ultimately, though I don't think models can be technically "wrong". The solution of a model is based on how the model is evolving the atmosphere and all the pieces. Now the model can be wrong in how everything evolves but that doesn't mean the output is wrong. 

In terms of forecasting, I think it really comes down to experience, knowledge of fundamental forecasting, and at least a basic understanding of atmospheric physics. Forecasting is just more than looking at models and interpreting the output. It always makes me cringe when people will say "models will change" or "nobody knows what models will do". Those who have a superior understanding of the physics can probably gather better insight into which model may perform better or why one model is struggling versus another. 

Expectations and society also play a big factor. Now, everyone wants pinpoint and detailed forecasts for a specific location 3-4-5+ days out. That is not realistic in many situations. Social media has led to irresponsibility sharing information and products (i.e. snow maps) and expectations and reality become distorted. 

You're totally right, there is no easy answer but it is a combination of so many different factors, but it is indeed an interesting discussion. 

[dryslot]

Saw the GFS try to wedge at 12z, It would erode quickly here on south winds so it would be a non factor.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Grafting pears for Brian?

Forky is digging the holes for me.

[wokeupthisam]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We winter

So far, "we" certainly do.  Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got

 

[powderfreak]

10" stacks on the chairs.  This mountain is just plastered in snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Modeling is certainly much better than it used to be...I don't think there can be any argument about that. However, IMO I think the rate of improvement has definitely slowed some over the past 5-10 years. That s just my opinion though and I have nothing to really back that up. I'm sure all these model scores and graphs will say otherwise. 

As we all know, modeling and the atmosphere is extremely complex. For models to do what they do is beyond impressive. Ultimately, though I don't think models can be technically "wrong". The solution of a model is based on how the model is evolving the atmosphere and all the pieces. Now the model can be wrong in how everything evolves but that doesn't mean the output is wrong. 

In terms of forecasting, I think it really comes down to experience, knowledge of fundamental forecasting, and at least a basic understanding of atmospheric physics. Forecasting is just more than looking at models and interpreting the output. It always makes me cringe when people will say "models will change" or "nobody knows what models will do". Those who have a superior understanding of the physics can probably gather better insight into which model may perform better or why one model is struggling versus another. 

Expectations and society also play a big factor. Now, everyone wants pinpoint and detailed forecasts for a specific location 3-4-5+ days out. That is not realistic in many situations. Social media has led to irresponsibility sharing information and products (i.e. snow maps) and expectations and reality become distorted. 

You're totally right, there is no easy answer but it is a combination of so many different factors, but it is indeed an interesting discussion. 

Recommend the '60 Minutes' segment on Quantum Computing.

Unless one is intellectually challenged or for some other reason is just too impaired in that regard ... the content will dazzle and inspire the imagination in ways that prior to had zero plausibility. The practical application of QC is projected for ~ 2030. 

For a lot of reasons.  ...where does one even begin ... the trope 'this is going to change everything' is uh ... VERY apropos.

Put it this way ... transistor theory is the bases of all artificial computing, from ENIAC (1945) to the World Powerful Supercomputer (2022), even the latter has a limitation. The limitation is in fact a dead leg stop.  It cannot penetrate the Uncertainty Principle. The entire manifold of computer technology, ultimately cannot do that.

The gross way to describe how 'quantum processing' works is that the electrons themselves are encoded with the information.  There is an immense manifold of mathematics between that aspect and the following statement, but, as Dr. Michio Kaku (among the pantheon of interviewees) stated,

    "... All possibilities in a given system are determined         SIMULTANEOUSLY"

What one has to understand to really begin to grapple a hold of the significance of that is, a vast number of problems in nature cannot be solved by calculating the linear dependency of A--> B --> C ... N terms. 

Those problems will be solvable.  AND, ...here's the part that really blows the mind.  Not only will they be solvable, but they will be solvable  ... very close to instantly. It's hard to really get one's head or even imagination around what the means. 

There are problems in DNA science that cannot be solved in the ABCN method. They are quantum uncertainty dependent.   This is true also in ... duh duh dunnnn   weather forecasting

The positive feed-back ( in the sense of "Moore's Law" for example) on research in general is incalculable. They ( meaning humanity) will be able to explore every field of physics boundlessly beyond where present day limitations hold them back - and believe me, there is stuff out there that's already esoteric and lesser known, and exotic, already. Cutting edge stuff left on the research bench because it's all rendered just as quickly outmoded.

I don't personally think humanity will survive it.  I think it's a Fermian loop-hold that cannot be escaped from when factoring in human nature; and the rest of the cosmos' linear propagation will continue on down the river of time, leaving us behind. But we'll see... Dr Kaku also ended the segment with the daunting prose to the affect of, 'Whom ever controls this first, will be the ultimate global economic power.'  

I dunno.  I don't think 'IQ OF God' technology was ever intended to be incentivized that way

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we have a low frequency standing wave near dateline by later this month, into January, then we want to root for MJO to be weak as we head later into winter....we'd prefer as little as possible disturbing the standing wave.

What does a standing wave look like on the charts? Is it just when the propagation of the wave stagnates in one phase? 

Still learning all of this, thanks. 

[Layman]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Modeling is certainly much better than it used to be...I don't think there can be any argument about that. However, IMO I think the rate of improvement has definitely slowed some over the past 5-10 years. That s just my opinion though and I have nothing to really back that up. I'm sure all these model scores and graphs will say otherwise. 

As we all know, modeling and the atmosphere is extremely complex. For models to do what they do is beyond impressive. Ultimately, though I don't think models can be technically "wrong". The solution of a model is based on how the model is evolving the atmosphere and all the pieces. Now the model can be wrong in how everything evolves but that doesn't mean the output is wrong. 

In terms of forecasting, I think it really comes down to experience, knowledge of fundamental forecasting, and at least a basic understanding of atmospheric physics. Forecasting is just more than looking at models and interpreting the output. It always makes me cringe when people will say "models will change" or "nobody knows what models will do". Those who have a superior understanding of the physics can probably gather better insight into which model may perform better or why one model is struggling versus another. 

Expectations and society also play a big factor. Now, everyone wants pinpoint and detailed forecasts for a specific location 3-4-5+ days out. That is not realistic in many situations. Social media has led to irresponsibility sharing information and products (i.e. snow maps) and expectations and reality become distorted. 

You're totally right, there is no easy answer but it is a combination of so many different factors, but it is indeed an interesting discussion. 

Interesting points - I appreciate your perspective and approach with these discussions.  

As an end user of forecast information, I definitely fall into the category you mentioned regarding current expectations.  I utilize a forecast to plan things in my life and expect it to be accurate out to a certain point.  In this forum however, as I see discussions regarding patterns, changes that are weeks away, etc my perception changes to more of what has a higher chance of being a likely in the future - there's no expectation that something is concretely going to happen outside of say 3-5 days lead time.  Again, this falls right into that realm you mentioned.  

As an outsider looking in, I see the weather models as an attempt to eventually replace the forecaster.  This is clearly not happening anytime soon, but this discussion highlights the need for an experienced forecaster to interpret model data and give an opinion on what they believe is most likely to happen.  The models now simply being a tool that, when in the hands of an expert, can use that tool with as much precision as it is capable of.  

A rhetorical question I have is:  How many data inputs are required to have 100% accurate forecast at any given (reasonable?) point in time?

The easiest answer is "All of them".  With that being a veritable impossibility, I imagine there is a minimum threshold of atmospheric data points that would provide a highly reliable forecast over varying degrees of time.  It's likely multitudes of what's being processed today, but I'm so far removed from it that I honestly have no idea.  Maybe it's much closer than I suspect.  

The fact that experienced forecasters can look at a model run and say "Oftentimes when it does this, it's actually showing THIS will happen", makes me think that there are programming updates that could be made to hone those areas.  However, I suppose it's possible that the interpretation of the model output by a forecaster is so many derivatives away from the data inputs that went into creating it that it's far from a one to one relationship with respect to making programming updates.  

With so many ever-evolving forces impacting the atmosphere and weather at any moment in time, it seems this realm should be devoid of declarative statements until you can "see the whites of it's eyes".  I sense the most seasoned forecasters here take that approach but it sometimes gets lost in the noise.  Welcome to the internet, Sir!