December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. I think once the Pacific starts to get better we have more of an opportunity in SNE and coastal areas. The pattern that supports milder weather is there, but the blocking is new. So once we get rid of the crap airmass in Canada, we’ll have a shot.

Check out the comparison between the early December forcing and January 2003.....lends confidence to my conclusion of an interior focused start to the season.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Check out the comparison between the early December forcing and January 2003.....lends confidence to my conclusion of an interior focused start to the season.

That was a cold month too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would want to be around and outside of I 495 early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a cold month too. 

I don't expect to be that cold due to differences in the Pacific and a slightly more canonical el Nino, but there should be some huggies.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect to be that cold due to differences in the Pacific and a slightly more canonical el Nino, but there should be some huggies.

Diapers?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Diapers?

You may need some this December.

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. I think once the Pacific starts to get better we have more of an opportunity in SNE and coastal areas. The pattern that supports milder weather is there, but the blocking is new. So once we get rid of the crap airmass in Canada, we’ll have a shot.

Pacific looked more hostile the first few days of December on yesterday's and last night's runs than we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday....but as you said, it doesn't last very long. The NAO blocking is still showing up, which is probably the most important variable for a positive outlook later in the winter.

Weeklies have been quite weenie-ish beyond mid-month too and you can see one of the reasons why on the MJO/RMM plots....we emerge into weak/COD phase 8 around mid-month. Note that the phase 4/5 stuff has mostly disappeared....fewer and fewer members show significant waves into that region now. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728047196291907617?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728047196291907617?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I don't think his progression is unreasonable....though I probably wouldn't speculate on severe cold in January at this point. But it def looks to become more favorable toward mid-December.

But that definitely doesn't mean we cannot score an event in the first 10 days....with the NAO blocking like that, you always have to watch. GEFS looked pretty nice actually just beyond 12/5 with a solid +PNA to go with the NAO blocking....Euro/EPS wasn't quite as enthusiastic aboutt he PNA but still not bad at all.

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728047196291907617?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Well.... His forecasting is like hitting home runs ... You get 100 strike outs, you will finally get that 1 home run. So, he may win this year.... lololol 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728047196291907617?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

By the end of the winter he will have thrown so much spaghetti on the wall he will claim victory... Does it every year.  This call has some pattern progression merit but I see it from him every winter.

[weatherwiz]

If that blocking does materialize, perhaps that round of blocking doesn't net us much, however, I think it will set the stage for some bigger things to come once we move towards the end of the month or into January. I seriously hope though this NAO isn't overblown. If we can get blocking like this in December...watch out. Those who went with torch December just b/c "that is strong EL Nino climo" must be sweating...and it's not from the torch either. 

[weathafella]

I think the variability in the handling of the MJO will continue to cause some back and forth in the December guidance causing various fist bumping and bridge jumping for a little while longer which is a bit uncharacteristic as we approach the solstice but this high end strong Nino is not behaving like many have in recent years.  I’m giving it another week before I make any declaration based on any evidence of how December untimely plays out.

[brooklynwx99]

mint

[brooklynwx99]

that is a legit -NAO too. notice how the entire N Atl is blocked up through Europe

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS show you a less hostile N PAC too...it retrogrades the -PNA trough between D7 and D10 back to the GOA (and even nearly to the more classic Aleutian low position) to pop a bit of western ridging. That helps in trying to sneak a coastal threat into the mix the firts half of the month,

I'd like to see the EPS do that too...it showed a little western ridging, but not nearly as much as the GEFS on the 00z suite. The Euro suite on the weeklies waits more until that 3rd week of the month to show more western ridging.

[MJO812]

After Bamwx has basically canceled December, they are on board with the negative NAO and a favorable pattern for 2nd half of December. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS definitely showed more western ridging today....he's the Dec 3rd-8th five day mean 00z vs 12z run

You can see the western ridging increased on the 12z run but also the lower heights near AK were more retrograded toward the Aleutians on the 12z run which helps pop that western ridging. So this may be a period to watch if we can keep this look as we get closer.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS definitely showed more western ridging today....he's the Dec 3rd-8th five day mean 00z vs 12z run

You can see the western ridging increased on the 12z run but also the lower heights near AK were more retrograded toward the Aleutians on the 12z run which helps pop that western ridging. So this may be a period to watch if we can keep this look as we get closer.

AK ridging showing up later in the run. great pattern overall

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS definitely showed more western ridging today....he's the Dec 3rd-8th five day mean 00z vs 12z run

You can see the western ridging increased on the 12z run but also the lower heights near AK were more retrograded toward the Aleutians on the 12z run which helps pop that western ridging. So this may be a period to watch if we can keep this look as we get closer.

Yeah I like what I see so far. 

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

After Bamwx has basically canceled December, they are on board with the negative NAO and a favorable pattern for 2nd half of December. 

Because they ripped the weeklies instead of looking deeper at what’s driving the pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

Some tasty looks today. Looks like interior in play at first and then maybe the coast as the Pacific improves. 

[weathafella]

I can’t say I hated 3 days of 65-70 with sunny conditions in the Bay Area but I’m looking forward to coming home today-should be en route in minutes as the rest of the plane boards.

I think the week of 12/4 may give many a good threat.   So far it’s not last winter.

[brooklynwx99]

now webb’s top analog is 2009. holy shit, you could cut the irony with a knife

[brooklynwx99]

after all that ranting and raving about weenies, he has come full circle. life comes at you fast, i guess

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

after all that ranting and raving about weenies, he has come full circle. life comes at you fast, i guess

Our long range guy for weeks has been saying this has shown similarities to 2009. Maybe he should focus on the atmospheric response and not every .01C daily change at region 3. 

[CoastalWx]

Grade A Craftsman Tool chest. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Our long range guy for weeks has been saying this has shown similarities to 2009. Maybe he should focus on the atmospheric response and not every .01C daily change at region 3. 

same. i do LR forecasting at my company with a couple others and 2009 was a top analog since the summer

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m expecting a snowy December 

[CoastalWx]

That is a loaded 18z gfs