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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that you asked but I suspect during this WAA thrust aspect where ever is rain at this time, stays as is...

A bit later,  some commitment to 2ndary ...blah blah, the cold/mixing drawn south, but it will be light. 

This system was a pain in the ass. Its a higher than usual latitude quasi Miller by smear, that could have occurred even 100 miles S in totality and at least inserted marginal chance to SNE.   I don't think CNE/NNE will complain, just sayn'.

This "signal" was around the charts for over a week.  I brought it to attention days and days ago as a 'period of interest' but wah wah, the GFS does astoundingly well from a long range with a warmer solution and also negative interfering wave spacing.  The Euro seem to spend time too chilly, but I stopped looking when it appeared to be nothing for my back yard.  LOL

I've noticed the lack of front side cold air has been a prevalent in all systems, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that ... going back years.  Interesting. 

Imho, that February 2015 was a completely different hemispheric phenomenon which can and should be considered an unique outlier for study. 

Otherwise, the definitive porking of specifically snow thing began around 2011...   2010 was the last year I remember front side cold being substantive enough to force a colder profiled systems.  No, I am not saying it hasn't snowed, nor that front side hasn't been cold upon occasion.  We're trying to be lucidly fair about trends here.  

To be sure, taken together with points east where there wasn’t any surface WAA, the surface winds at DAW have been north/northeasterly for past 8 hours; and latest ob is 39/36. Pretty damn telling; WAA isn’t the problem as much as just limited cold around.


 

 

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Even in the cold 76-77 Winter the first real snow was Christmas night.  Snow on the ground Christmas morning in the NYC metro (and I suspect most of I-95) wasn't that common.  It will only get worse as it seems like the offshore Atlantic waters are getting warmer.

It's funny you mention the waters, I was just looking at this 5 minutes ago. Actually quite cold until you reach the Gulf Stream.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

This is how I remember it too.  Actually, I remember logging onto this forum on Xmas 2014 and it was total, absolute dejection, hopelessness, and self-pity.  Fastest and best turnaround of my life! But one I’m unlikely to see ever again, I think.

 

1 hour ago, Layman said:

To be fair, it seems like you could log on any 5 of 7 days during any given week and find something similar.  

Tis the true stuff of this hobby we’ve all chosen.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Been snowing since noon at 1500ft here at the office.  Pasty up on the hill, will go back out at 2pm to see.

I hear its been wet snow in town, no accumulation, when precip is heavier.  Currently drizzle down there at 750ft.

Similar here.  Seems like 1000' is the line.

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1 hour ago, Layman said:

To be fair, it seems like you could log on any 5 of 7 days during any given week and find something similar.  

I was reading the NE and NYC forums the Friday before Boxing Day 2010 (born in Queens, family near Boston, time spent both places) and the gloom and doom was so bad.  At the time, there were a lot of Sabbath observant people in Brooklyn (I think many have since made aliyah) who logged off with crushing disappointment and logged back on Saturday evening to blizzard warnings.  It was such a happy thing to see.  People verbally dancing in joy.

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