December 2023

[George001]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that is unreasonable. Ninos are backloaded... places can easily not see much before Jan begins and the rest of the winter can still be great. 2014-15 is the prime example of that

2014-2015 is an extreme anomaly. Yes ninos are backloaded, but in good nino winters you punt Dec. You do not punt Dec and Jan. In Jan 2015, the pattern was bad early on but there were promising signs and an extremely favorable background state (raging +PDO, weak El Niño). It hasn’t happened yet, but kicking the can is usually a sign that it’s not going to happen. The timeframe being talked about is early Jan, if things look good by then I’ll get excited, if not then I’m writing off winter as a dud. By looking good it doesn’t necessarily mean immediate snow. If we have a cold pattern inside 7 days by like Jan 5th despite not having any snow on the ground, good. If we have no snow AND warmth is dominating the long range guidance, I don’t see how you can objectively look at how things are going and NOT be concerned.
 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice. 36.1° and dropping. Do a “sounding” yet?

You’re in a good spot, given the elevation and away from coast. But tracking temp misleading with this; dews are stubbornly high at our latitude. CON at 37/37.

Lots of white rain; packing and melting on the clown maps, I believe.

On the flip side, whatever instability is left, Monday night IVT will likely over-deliver for someone near us though.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

2014-2015 is an extreme anomaly. Yes ninos are backloaded, but in good nino winters you punt Dec. You do not punt Dec and Jan. In Jan 2015, the pattern was bad early on but there were promising signs and an extremely favorable background state (raging +PDO, weak El Niño). It hasn’t happened yet, but kicking the can is usually a sign that it’s not going to happen. The timeframe being talked about is early Jan, if things look good by then I’ll get excited, if not then I’m writing off winter as a dud. 
 

my point is that writing off winter in early Jan when it is supposed to be backloaded is silly. you can write it off in Nina winters when the end of the winter is suppose to be crappy

[dendrite]

The main precip is moving in and starting as sleet. 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

2015 started later in January

The last couple days of January actually.  There was a ton of Rat talk that year…then it went Bazurk.  

[George001]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my point is that writing off winter in early Jan when it is supposed to be backloaded is silly. you can write it off in Nina winters when the end of the winter is suppose to be crappy

I don’t agree. The guidance constantly delaying the pattern change usually means it’s not going to happen. If we are still seeing storms entering the Pacific Northwest by then and the PDO is still solidly negative, I’m not going to be optimistic. I haven’t even written winter off yet. I also think that people panicking and writing winter off because December looks warm are jumping the gun. Like you said, in El Niño you lose Dec. That’s the way it goes even in good nino winters. I do think this winter will show its hand by early Jan. Does that mean if we don’t get buried as soon as the calendar flips winter is doomed? No, but if the background state (-PDO, unfavorable MJO, storms entering the Pacific Northwest) doesn’t improve and the guidance over the next 2 weeks is showing a sea of warmth, that’s not good. 

[jbenedet]

Lebanon NH at 41/36?! 
 

Oof.

 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Lebanon NH at 41/36?! 
 

Oof.

 

The dews are much higher than the same type of event last week.  Last Sunday we went into it like 38/24 and it over performed snowy… this week we are 35/33 going into it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The last couple days of January actually.  There was a ton of Rat talk that year…then it went Bazurk.  

A once in probably 200-300 year anomaly

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The dews are much higher than the same type of event last week.  Last Sunday we went into it like 38/24 and it over performed snowy… this week we are 35/33 going into it.

Clowns are gonna clown.

The 12z suite. Yikes.

[mahk_webstah]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The main precip is moving in and starting as sleet. 

Not sure what’s happening here, but I’m about to go for a drive down to Concord. Assume it’s good sign to see sleet because that means the upper levels are cold already and some of that is going to come down as precipitation intensifies would be nice to end up with a coating of two or 3 inches by tomorrow morning. A few cold days to follow and enjoy bit of winter.

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

snowing solidly at Wildcat , top to bottom . On chair 

Zero visibility? 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not sure what’s happening here, but I’m about to go for a drive down to Concord. Assume it’s good sign to see sleet because that means the upper levels are cold already and some of that is going to come down as precipitation intensifies would be nice to end up with a coating of two or 3 inches by tomorrow morning. A few cold days to follow and enjoy bit of winter.

Actually, it looks like it’s a bit of a mix of rain and snow

[wxeyeNH]

34.2/32  Precip just started.  5 minutes of rain and now flip to light snow

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think there is an argument out there that Jesus may have been really born in June.

IIRC the scholarly argument is actually September, 3 BC.  

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Lebanon NH at 41/36?! 
 

Oof.

 

Not that you asked but I suspect during this WAA thrust aspect where ever is rain at this time, stays as is...

A bit later,  some commitment to 2ndary ...blah blah, the cold/mixing drawn south, but it will be light. 

This system was a pain in the ass. Its a higher than usual latitude quasi Miller by smear, that could have occurred even 100 miles S in totality and at least inserted marginal chance to SNE.   I don't think CNE/NNE will complain, just sayn'.

This "signal" was around the charts for over a week.  I brought it to attention days and days ago as a 'period of interest' but wah wah, the GFS does astoundingly well from a long range with a warmer solution and also negative interfering wave spacing.  The Euro seem to spend time too chilly, but I stopped looking when it appeared to be nothing for my back yard.  LOL

I've noticed the lack of front side cold air has been a prevalent in all systems, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that ... going back years.  Interesting. 

Imho, that February 2015 was a completely different hemispheric phenomenon which can and should be considered an unique outlier for study. 

Otherwise, the definitive porking of specifically snow thing began around 2011...   2010 was the last year I remember front side cold being substantive enough to force a colder profiled systems.  No, I am not saying it hasn't snowed, nor that front side hasn't been cold upon occasion.  We're trying to be lucidly fair about trends here.  

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Actually, it looks like it’s a bit of a mix of rain and snow

Mark,  I flew my drone with the Kestral attached.  Freezing line was around 2000 feet above sea level.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Mark,  I flew my drone with the Kestral attached.  Freezing line was around 2000 feet above sea level.

I wouldn't have expected to start as a mix at 37/36dp.  So there is cold air, we see how much makes it to the surface.  I bet you have 4-6 on the ground by morning.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

IIRC the scholarly argument is actually September, 3 BC.  

Well that's new to me. Add that to the birthdays.  Hell, maybe he was born on every day - god is everywhere, right?

I don't frankly care.  I mean, I honor the guy if he was a some kind of "humanitarian Einstein" but it stops there.

I'm happy faith gives people happiness.  We only live once.  Shy of harming others in the procuring of happiness, go for it!  Personally? I'm gonna go ahead with actually needing to see walking on water, or pulling fish out of an eerily empty wicker basket for the hapless masses, before I bother to look into it any further

[Angus]

frozen falling at summit of crotched per webcam not the case at the bottom of hill.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not sure what’s happening here, but I’m about to go for a drive down to Concord. Assume it’s good sign to see sleet because that means the upper levels are cold already and some of that is going to come down as precipitation intensifies would be nice to end up with a coating of two or 3 inches by tomorrow morning. A few cold days to follow and enjoy bit of winter.

Uh, actually ... it means that rain is falling into a thermodynamically colder layer(s).  Usually it's snow melting through an elevated WARM layer, and then as the rain droplets fall back through a lower DP layer, it cools and freezes.   Typical sleet sounding has temperatures falling going up to about 925 or even as high as 700 mb in some extreme cases, with an overriding melt layer.

[dryslot]

OVC, 35/32°F.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not going to lie, I was glad to sit this one out.....the PIA forecast would not have been worth the return. NNE can have it.

[dryslot]

925mb is -2c here so we could start as some frozen or transition fairly quickly thereafter if the rates are there.

[Eduardo]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The last couple days of January actually.  There was a ton of Rat talk that year…then it went Bazurk.  

This is how I remember it too.  Actually, I remember logging onto this forum on Xmas 2014 and it was total, absolute dejection, hopelessness, and self-pity.  Fastest and best turnaround of my life! But one I’m unlikely to see ever again, I think.

[bwt3650]

Snowing solidly at Stratton from the base at 2000' all the way up.

[mahk_webstah]

light wet snow here.  Not heavy so could get interesting when the rates intensify.  expected rain to start...this is basically white rain at this point, but who knows how it evolves.

[George001]

9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This is how I remember it too.  Actually, I remember logging onto this forum on Xmas 2014 and it was total, absolute dejection, hopelessness, and self-pity.  Fastest and best turnaround of my life! But one I’m unlikely to see ever again, I think.

That winter was a once in a lifetime event. Statistically it is extremely unlikely it will happen again, but I am thankful that I had the chance to experience that. The old George that loved severe blizzards is not gone. I still love the cold and snow, I’m just not going to be expecting a blizzard for every shortwave that enters the CONUS. That just isn’t a realistic expectation. If there is a blizzard on the on the short range guidance with strong cross guidance support, I’m going to be all over it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Zero visibility? 

Nah , just steady big flakes 

was 30-31 at bottom area when I arrived at 1030am

[Layman]

9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This is how I remember it too.  Actually, I remember logging onto this forum on Xmas 2014 and it was total, absolute dejection, hopelessness, and self-pity.  Fastest and best turnaround of my life! But one I’m unlikely to see ever again, I think.

To be fair, it seems like you could log on any 5 of 7 days during any given week and find something similar.