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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That 57 storm was a foot for me. 58 featured 4 inches the first week and of course 1960 a full fledged historic blizzard the 11-12th.  

That 1960 event dumped 18" at our place and the heavy snow was tapering off as we ventured out on the opener of the 6-day firearm deer season.  After my friend and I waded thru the powder for 90 minutes, we came back to find my dad standing over a nice little buck, maybe 250 yards from our home.  That storm was also remarkable for the cold, as much of the snow fell while the temp was low teens.  The January blizzard was even a bit colder, so the biggest dog of all (Feb 3-4) felt mild as temps were upper 20s.  March 1956 thru Feb 1961 had the best run of big storms I'll ever see.  Even our years in Fort Kent couldn't match that NNJ run.

Edit:  Averaging the low end/expected/high end for Farmington and Skowhegan, our forecast is currently 4"8"/11".  Would be decent.

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Nam and hrrr gone wild for the coast with tomorrows system. crashes the 2m temps south, big difference from 12z. Ground is really warm so toss the clowns, especially with marginal surface temps even in my area for the duration. I like the 12z hrrr koochie for a forecast with classic climo gradient somewhere north of Windham. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

2) The correlation between AO/NAO and NE temperatures is much stronger moving towards January and for February than it is November into December.

Not true.. December has the highest correlation in the NE

https://ibb.co/XWm9VzH

https://ibb.co/QDy6k40

https://ibb.co/Jk4TxVc

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live. 

There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking. 

What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic  than last winter if that helps. 

There is a raging Pac jet, so of course its mild. All the NAO does is trap the cold in place and block storms from cutting. Everyone agrees that if the PAC is crap, then it will be mild. But there is every reason to believe that heights will elevate near AK later this month. 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Everything sucks until it doesn't.   Stop trying to convince others that it doesn't suck prior to not sucking.

I don't think anyone is arguing the pattern now doesn't suck, which isn't unexpected. However, the blocking this early is a positive auger for the balance of the season. 

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think anyone is arguing the pattern now doesn't suck, which isn't unexpected. However, the blocking this eaely is a positive auger for the balance of the season. 

It’s amazing to me how the same people can be around here for so long and still panic the same way every single year. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe I'm delirious because I'm pretty sick and these Mucinex extra strength are overpowering me but reading through this thread today at points I've started to think, "well crap maybe winter is cooked". Then I realize...

IT'S DECEMBER 2 

2 days into meteorological winter....and nothing.  It's a dead ratter.

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1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Never mind snow chances WTF is up with all the moths this evening?? 

They're out and about because they're sniffing the +4-8F December pattern. 

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.C99E1343-2B77-444E-9C2D-CB09654B5587.thumb.jpeg.4d8da26e0cbed069f3872ddc27e38b66.jpeg

Really hope you guys get some good stuff up there. 

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