December 2023

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that’s a shut ‘em down cutter on the euro.

For when? Lol. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  2019 was early December…the 2nd.  

Yeah I forgot my several inches beginning on my birthday…lol.  I guess I blotted out that winter which started with so much promise and dudded.

[ariof]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that’s a shut ‘em down cutter on the euro.

Good thing the Canadian doesn't have the same—oh, wait. The GFS tries to save it with a last minute offshore redevelopment, I guess?

[dendrite]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It also used to snow often in early Dec in both of our childhood and adult years. The first 10 days almost always snowed. We’ve lost that 

With December not looking great you’ve already lost 2 winter months. Punxy Phil cancels the rest of winter 2 months from today. That only leaves you January for appreciable snow and you’re only at a dusting on the season now. Not good. 

[qg_omega]

Decent looking as expected, above normal.  Only question is +4 vs +8

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With December not looking great you’ve already lost 2 winter months. Punxy Phil cancels the rest of winter 2 months from today. That only leaves you January for appreciable snow and you’re only at a dusting on the season now. Not good. 

It is what it is 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We had a huge block and record -AO where we would've cashed in every time but didn't. 

We're getting blocking now and it's in the 50s today.  These blocks are no longer paying dividends like they used to. 

The PV is also shrinking and it's allowing strong Atlantic blocking to get negated too if not merging with the SE ridge

Posters like Raindance & Bluewave have been absolutely crushing it in their analysis over the past few years and I have no reason to doubt them. 

First of all, Raindance whiffed in the Arctic last year, secondly, I have had years where I "killed it", but that doesn't mean other years won't kill me. Again, no one is expecting a frigid season....its not a cold look this year, but it shouldn't be prohibitive to snowfall. The PDO will not be epic like last year.

Do me a favor, and keep your deranged, neurotic BS in the tri state thread.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, Raindance whiffed in the Arctic last year, secondly, I have had years where I "killed it", but that doesn't mean other years won't kill me. Again, no one is expecting a frigid season....its not a cold look this year, but it shouldn't be prohibitive to snowfall. The PDO will not be epic like last year.

Do me a favor, and keep your deranged, neurotic BS in the tri state thread.

I'm not sure if they are trolling or just afraid because of last winter.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, Raindance whiffed in the Arctic last year, secondly, I have had years where I "killed it", but that doesn't mean other years won't kill me. Again, no one is expecting a frigid season....its not a cold look this year, but it shouldn't be prohibitive to snowfall. The PDO will not be epic like last year.

Do me a favor, and keep your deranged, neurotic BS in the tri state thread.

Been telling this guy that for a year…stay in that dumpster fire NYC thread. That’s where he belongs.  But No, he comes here and spoons up garbage. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm not sure if they are trolling or just afraid because of last winter.

Both.  And we don’t need it in here. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Both.  And we don’t need it in here. 

We know what Snowski brings to the table but im not sure about Bluewave and Allsnow.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Decent looking as expected, above normal.  Only question is +4 vs +8

Tequila

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been telling this guy that for a year…stay in that dumpster fire NYC thread. That’s where he belongs.  But No, he comes here and spoons up garbage. 

I know I belong in the NYC subforum but this subforum has alot of knowledgeable people in here despite getting a bad rap by many.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

In N Conway . Nice day ..42 ..people out and about . Snow storm within 36 hours 

[Snowcrazed71]

Funny thing is, once we get that snow storm to become a reality, most of the people who are complaining now will all of a sudden be on board like nothing ever happened and the clapping will commence.

I'm just hoping we get there sooner than later so we can shut them up

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I know I belong in the NYC subforum but this subforum has alot of knowledgeable people in here despite getting a bad rap by many.

You’re different…you’re a genuine guy that brings value to this subforum, and you belong here more than you do over there.  He’d be welcome too if he wasn’t such a whining pain, that brags about others doing better than one of our own.  

[rclab]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what she said..

 

Until she didn’t 

 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

My wife thinks I'm weird when I track snow and keep looking out the window for snow flakes when a storm is approaching .

But in the end when with the flakes falling on a scene of serene beauty …. That end certainly justified that mean. Stay well and hopeful. As always 

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We all get that from our girls/wives and families…when I’m straining looking for first flakes on an approaching storm, I’ll go “I just saw a flake,” and she’ll go, “yup so do I..he’s looking out the window .”  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know I belong in the NYC subforum but this subforum has alot of knowledgeable people in here despite getting a bad rap by many.

Thank you  . Appreciated 

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm not sure if they are trolling or just afraid because of last winter.

Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live. 

There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking. 

What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic  than last winter if that helps. 

[powderfreak]

WWA up.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches.
  Amounts up to 10 inches possible above 1500 ft.

 

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live. 

There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking. 

What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic  than last winter if that helps. 

1) The structure and placement of the blocking in the Arctic isn't very favorable for loading cold into the NE. 

2) The correlation between AO/NAO and NE temperatures is much stronger moving towards January and for February than it is November into December.

[weathafella]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live. 

There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking. 

What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic  than last winter if that helps. 

While I agree it will be mild in general there will be a few cold stabs over the next 10 days so there will be opportunities if we time something.  I think sometime between 12-10-20 we see the more wintry look.  BOS climo max drops below 40 in that period as well.

[Go Kart Mozart]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We know what Snowski brings to the table but im not sure about Bluewave and Allsnow.

 

I find Bluewave to be very knowledgeable, and I understand the arguments from him and others that this will be another lousy winter.  I hope he is wrong, but I respect his thoughts.  

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Some years it did.  Most years it didn’t.  I was also affected by impressions because growing up in the 50s in NNJ we had a string of years where we got decent snow in the first week of December.  Then we went 15-20 years without, then a string with,etc.  the early 2000s were good. The 20s have been bad.  Even the big dump of 2020 came in the 2nd half of the month.

My memory for the 1950s, especially the first 5 years, was different so I "had" to check (using Oak Ridge Reservoir as my old records are long gone).  They had first-week storms of 8.0" in 1952 and 1957, and nothing else in the 1st or 2nd week bigger than 3.5".  The '60s were better, with 4 events from 5.0" to 14.0", but only that 5" was 1st week.   
(Nov 1968 had a 7.0" event on the 12th, well remembered as we were nailing felt to an under-construction house well past sunset the night before.  The windows hadn't yet been installed, and next morning the howling wind had covered the entire floor with white, even the interior hallways.  NYC had to close the Whitestone Bridge for a while as the 60+ gusts were causing too much sway.)

GYX had us getting WSW criteria Sunday night into Monday; should be able to see their new AFD soon.
Edit:  They've just posted a WS Watch for possible 8"+.

[dryslot]

Winter Storm Watches hoisted.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I find Bluewave to be very knowledgeable, and I understand the arguments from him and others that this will be another lousy winter.  I hope he is wrong, but I respect his thoughts.  

I think NNE is already having a good winter with snow in the pipeline as we speak.  The jury obviously is still out on sne but the natural progression suggests sne gets it next.  Bluewave is good but keep in mind his focus isn’t New England.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My memory for the 1950s, especially the first 5 years, was different so I "had" to check (using Oak Ridge Reservoir as my old records are long gone).  They had first-week storms of 8.0" in 1952 and 1957, and nothing else in the 1st or 2nd week bigger than 3.5".  The '60s were better, with 4 events from 5.0" to 14.0", but only that 5" was 1st week.   
(Nov 1968 had a 7.0" event on the 12th, well remembered as we were nailing felt to an under-construction house well past sunset the night before.  The windows hadn't yet been installed, and next morning the howling wind had covered the entire floor with white, even the interior hallways.  NYC had to close the Whitestone Bridge for a while as the 60+ gusts were causing too much sway.)

GYX had us getting WSW criteria Sunday night into Monday; should be able to see their new AFD soon.
Edit:  They've just posted a WS Watch for possible 8"+.

That 57 storm was a foot for me. 58 featured 4 inches the first week and of course 1960 a full fledged historic blizzard the 11-12th.  

[TalcottWx]

23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS says goodbye. 

Rat in a drain ditch, caught on a limb, you know better but I know him

Like I told you, what I said, steal your face right off your head

[TalcottWx]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs is a nice example of maximizing a meh pattern.

Don't let the MEH'hers get you down

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Favorable changes in the Pacific on long range EPS especially days 9-13, however it’s on an island with that idea.