December 2023

[WX-PA]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems like some folks are so emotionally fragile and dependent upon snow that they want a written guarantee of crystalized armageddon in their back yard. It doesn't work like that...all you can do is diagnose general features in the pattern and hope for the best. Any additional measures to safe guard against what we are observing in this forum at the very onset of met winter should be taken on the couch or zoom feed of a good therapist. 

We ALL need mental help on these boards.

[Damage In Tolland]

Some of the densest fog here on the  hilltop I have seen . Driving you can’t see more than 5 feet . I always laugh when forecasts this time of year call for sunny breaks and low clouds burning off. Not happening Timmy 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Great post Layman.  You’re learning fast. The guys in here in the know are very good about explaining things. Keep asking your questions.   
 

The person who asked Ray that question many times can get caught up in the constant negative hand wringing that some display around here.  It’s a detriment to the board.  However, I will give that person credit for actually asking a good and fair question in that instance.  

Many are scarred and jaded due to last years total Rat of a season. And I can completely understand that. It’s very easy to just go with the persistence type idea, and when any little thing doesn’t go the way they think it should, they say see…it’s just like last year all over again. 

But  that’s the exact wrong way to approach things.  This is not last year. It’s already different than last year. If one actually looks at the set up, it’s clearly different.

 Sure, one can always find something that’s similar, and then claim and exaggerate it’s the same, as some of these folks do and whine about.  But the truth is it’s not.  

November finished 2 degrees below normal this year at BDL. But If we listened to the trolls back at the end of October, they told us that this coming November(despite a couple cool days)was going to be a blast furnace overall this year, just like it was last year. That’s some funny stuff, now that we look back at a solidly below normal month. With many frosts and freezes, and many we’ll below normal high temp days. 
 

This is not last year. And ultimately that’s all anybody needs to know.  I/We won’t finish at 12” of snow (normal is about 50” for me) like I did last year here in west of the River interior CT.  That I will bet on. 
 

Your new, and learning, just be careful not to get caught up in the negativity, and fake nonsense that some spew here. Ray can explain his reasoning better than I can, so I’ll leave that to him. But he is definitely one of the good sources to learn from. Guy knows his stuff, and can lay it out for you very clearly. 

Well said. The funny thing is, even with my comment I had made a little ways back, the ones who give us the weenie emoji are the ones that typically are the pessimistic ones or the ones like to dig the screwdriver in with the negative comments.....

They know who they are.

I'm sure I'll get a weenie reply on this one too from them just as you did with your post. It really doesn't bother me, it's kind of funny. But I think that's all they know how to do. Anyway, really good reply and appreciate your outlook as well

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well said. The funny thing is, even with my comment I had made a little ways back, the ones who give us the weenie emoji are the ones that typically are the pessimistic ones or the ones like to dig the screwdriver in with the negative comments.....

They know who they are.

I'm sure I'll get a weenie reply on this one too from them just as you did with your post. It really doesn't bother me, it's kind of funny. But I think that's all they know how to do. Anyway, really good reply and appreciate your outlook as well

Yes sir, you are correct..

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Nam's look good.

We should towards the model that sees CAD best?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

We ALL need mental help on these boards.

My wife thinks I'm weird when I track snow and keep looking out the window for snow flakes when a storm is approaching .

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My wife thinks I'm weird when I track snow and keep looking out the window for snow flakes when a storm is approaching .

We all get that from our girls/wives and families…when I’m straining looking for first flakes on an approaching storm, I’ll go “I just saw a flake,” and she’ll go, “yup so do I..he’s looking out the window .”  

[weatherwiz]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year.

The -PDO is not encouraging 

Bluewave would definitely call you out on it. 

How is the -PDO not encouraging? -PDO/EL Nino combo's can be fine. Below are a list of winters which featured a -PDO during an EL Nino. Certainly, you can see one of the biggest differentiators in the hemispheric pattern is tied into whether blocking develops and how prominent blocking can become. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How is the -PDO not encouraging? -PDO/EL Nino combo's can be fine. Below are a list of winters which featured a -PDO during an EL Nino. Certainly, you can see one of the biggest differentiators in the hemispheric pattern is tied into whether blocking develops and how prominent blocking can become. 

 

It comes down to us not having a stupidly -PNA.  You can usually survive to about as bad as -1.25 or so from BOS south but if you consistently go below that your NAO could be -4 and it probably won't matter much

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know... No one knows anything for sure. I can ask you the same thing... What makes you so sure it will keep pushing back like last year.?

First off, no 2 years are identical. So there's your answer on being like last year 

Second.... The weather ( and the models ) will fluctuate and change. What we don't see now on the GFS or the Euro, can all of a sudden appear tomorrow ( just as some things we see now will disappear tomorrow. 

If I've learned anything when it comes to the weather is that it always changes. No one will ever get it 100% right. But eat assured, it will not be just like last year.

Heh, wasted effort.  It strikes me as a contrived argument. Latching onto semantics when it's patently obvious ...when someone says, 'exactly like last year' ..etc, they don't mean, exactly like last year down to the quantum variances the foam the Plank field, where so emerges the space time-fabric of the cosmos ...  ( I call that 'the IQ of God')

Nothing is absolute, in reality for that matter ... I guess even God cannot make up his/her mind ( most likely, a she then - ) including comparing any aspect of weather history. 

The obvious: any poster content that says 'exactly like this or that,' is far in a way intending to mean similar?  

just sayn'

 

 

 

[weathafella]

Today is December 2nd.  Normals highs for selected locations north to south:

CAR: 33

BTV: 40

BGR: 40

AUG: 40

CON: 42

PWM: 43

MHT: 44

BOS: 46

ORH: 42

BDL: 45

PVD: 48

 

SNEers-your expectations are out of whack.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What got pushed back last year? We got the huge block in December, regardless of of the fact that it didn't produce snow on the east coast. Again, we got the Feb SSW and resultant huge block in March, right on schedule. -PDO is fine as long as you aren't expecting a very cold eastern winter, which no one is. This will not be a prohibitively extreme-PDO list last year.

We had a huge block and record -AO where we would've cashed in every time but didn't. 

We're getting blocking now and it's in the 50s today.  These blocks are no longer paying dividends like they used to. 

The PV is also shrinking and it's allowing strong Atlantic blocking to get negated too if not merging with the SE ridge

Posters like Raindance & Bluewave have been absolutely crushing it in their analysis over the past few years and I have no reason to doubt them. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We had a huge block and record -AO where we would've cashed in every time but didn't. 

We're getting blocking now and it's in the 50s today.  These blocks are no longer paying dividends like they used to. 

The PV is also shrinking and it's allowing strong Atlantic blocking to get negated too if not merging with the SE ridge

strong blocking doesn’t allow for a major snowstorm every time. it simply greatly increases the odds. you can still get screwed

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today is December 2nd.  Normals highs for selected locations north to south:

CAR: 33

BTV: 40

BGR: 40

AUG: 40

CON: 42

PWM: 43

MHT: 44

BOS: 46

ORH: 42

BDL: 45

PVD: 48

 

SNEers-your expectations are out of whack.

It also used to snow often in early Dec in both of our childhood and adult years. The first 10 days almost always snowed. We’ve lost that 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It also used to snow often in early Dec in both of our childhood and adult years. The first 10 days almost always snowed. We’ve lost that 

More anecdotal stuff not backed by climo.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

More anecdotal stuff not backed by climo.

There’s been a ton of snowstorms and/ or general events in the last 50 years Dec1-10. All you gotta do is look 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been a ton of snowstorms and/ or general events in the last 50 years Dec1-10. All you gotta do is look 

Beer

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer

Take a look 

[ma blizzard]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today is December 2nd.  Normals highs for selected locations north to south:

CAR: 33

BTV: 40

BGR: 40

AUG: 40

CON: 42

PWM: 43

MHT: 44

BOS: 46

ORH: 42

BDL: 45

PVD: 48

 

SNEers-your expectations are out of whack.

great point to put it all in perspective! 

[wx2fish]

One of the biggest Dec storms on record for the MHT area was Dec 1-3, 2019. Don't have to go back to the knicker days to find one

[WinterWolf]

Ya just 3 years ago there was one Kevin. Lol…And the year before that too. 2019 and 2020 featured good storms in early to mid  December.  Get a grip my friend.  

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

strong blocking doesn’t allow for a major snowstorm every time. it simply greatly increases the odds. you can still get screwed

It’s a waste of time…some of these people are cooked.  As we know there’s no guarantees with any pattern.  Last year we just had shit fortune…that’s all there is to it.  It happens from time to time. We know this, obviously he does not. And he’s not the only one. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya just 3 years ago there was one Kevin. Lol…And the year before that too. 2019 and 2020 featured good storms in early to mid  December.  Get a grip my friend.  

Like I said .. almost always there was snow in first 10  days of Dec. Scoots hitting sauce way early today 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like I said .. almost always there was snow in first 10  days of Dec. Scoots hitting sauce way early today 

Yes, but you’re saying cuz we may, or may not get one this year, that something is wrong.  But Nothing is wrong. Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn’t. That’s just the way it is.  When I was a kid…I remember a bunch of times it never snowing significantly in December, for years on end. And then I remember when it did at times too. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like I said .. almost always there was snow in first 10  days of Dec. Scoots hitting sauce way early today 

Meh. Then you go back to 2003. This isn’t and never was a snowy 10 days of the month. Avg temps alone should tell you. Enjoy Morch snows. 

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today is December 2nd.  Normals highs for selected locations north to south:

CAR: 33

BTV: 40

BGR: 40

AUG: 40

CON: 42

PWM: 43

MHT: 44

BOS: 46

ORH: 42

BDL: 45

PVD: 48

 

SNEers-your expectations are out of whack.

Fabulous post. Thank you for the perspective Jerry.  Some peeps way lost. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Fabulous post. Thank you for the perspective Jerry.  Some peeps way lost. 

They gone 

[CoastalWx]

Now that’s a shut ‘em down cutter on the euro.

[weathafella]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It also used to snow often in early Dec in both of our childhood and adult years. The first 10 days almost always snowed. We’ve lost that 

Some years it did.  Most years it didn’t.  I was also affected by impressions because growing up in the 50s in NNJ we had a string of years where we got decent snow in the first week of December.  Then we went 15-20 years without, then a string with,etc.  the early 2000s were good. The 20s have been bad.  Even the big dump of 2020 came in the 2nd half of the month.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Some years it did.  Most years it didn’t.  I was also affected by impressions because growing up in the 50s in NNJ we had a string of years where we got decent snow in the first week of December.  Then we went 15-20 years without, then a string with,etc.  the early 2000s were good. The 20s have been bad.  Even the big dump of 2020 came in the 2nd half of the month.

Absolutely.  2019 was early December…the 2nd.