tunafish Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, amc said: GYX just in the past few minutes let part of their hazardous weather outlook drop for the coast and a swath of southern NH. Wonder if they don't buy it? GYX seems to have been very conservative with their snowfall forecasts the past few years. can't speak for them, obviously, but there are caution flags for coastal southern cumberland county with this one, as have been noted in this thread. i've kept track of there forecast "error" for PWM the past 2 winters. 2021-2022 - bias is over-forecast by 10.6" on the season, an average of 1" per each event (that was >1" observed). Greatest margin over was 4.3" and 4.2" on 2/4/22 and 2/25/22 respectively. 2022-2023 - bias is under-forecast by 1.7" on the season, an average of 0.1" per each event (that was > 1" observed). Greatest margin under being 3.8" on 12/16/2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Pretty chilly look at the sfc late Sunday, CF would be down into interior MA. Still trying to fight off some warmth around 925 though. this could be a fun little "surprise" for some. Might be a forecasting nightmare though for areas borderline. Some of those borderline locations end up a smidge colder and its easily close to several inches given the rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too All guidance onboard now, Just a matter of totals when it flips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: All guidance onboard now, Just a matter of totals when it flips. I'm thinking a strip of 10-16'' possible where the heaviest banding occurs and confidence seems to be increasing such a band will materialize. Certainly some support for 2''+ per hour rates based on some of the bufkit data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, tunafish said: can't speak for them, obviously, but there are caution flags for coastal southern cumberland county with this one, as have been noted in this thread. i've kept track of there forecast "error" for PWM the past 2 winters. 2021-2022 - bias is over-forecast by 10.6" on the season, an average of 1" per each event (that was >1" observed). Greatest margin over was 4.3" and 4.2" on 2/4/22 and 2/25/22 respectively. 2022-2023 - bias is under-forecast by 1.7" on the season, an average of 0.1" per each event (that was > 1" observed). Greatest margin under being 3.8" on 12/16/2022. Nice stuff. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you were lucky considering what happened in March. I had 1.7” total in March. Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but from the moment we squandered last December’s pattern my small patch of valley land was never close to in the game. It’s all good though. New season is upon us. Not worth carrying those emotions into a different year. I really like your outlook and the general consensus that this isn’t a traditional mega Nino evolving. I feel cautiously optimistic that this’ll be a closer to normal year than the recent stretch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan Hello, again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Hello, again. EPS says goodbye. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS says goodbye. Long range eps ? We know how well it does. Weeklies have been consistent 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS says goodbye. Poor kids lost a couple presents when you scrolled through the 11-15 day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2nd month of winter looks mainly lost now 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: All guidance onboard now, Just a matter of totals when it flips. Been out of the loop for a while until 18z today and wouldn't you know it, i guess we're gonna have a snowstorm Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2nd month of winter looks mainly lost now I’ll take pics for you 1 1 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Cold Miser said: Clown map over 2 weeks out. Stop. It’ was actually for the day 5 snow that’s probably not happening. And I think we all know it’s a clown map , I just said it would be funny if it verified. Lighten up grinch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, wx2fish said: Poor kids lost a couple presents when you scrolled through the 11-15 day Half the house will be a loss if that’s the look heading into January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Half the house will be a loss if that’s the look heading into January. A majority of people on this forum too........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2nd month of winter looks mainly lost now Cheese with that beer?Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Cheese with that beer? Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Interesting and odd combo. Better would be pizza with that beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Cheese with that beer? Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Replica of last winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Half the house will be a loss if that’s the look heading into January. that appears to be a transient pattern as the MJO quickly passes through the unfavorable phases 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 18z Gfs like the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Replica of last winter It's very early. Take a run in a.m. , clear your head and be ready for the next model runSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 18z 3k gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that appears to be a transient pattern as the MJO quickly passes through the unfavorable phases That’s my hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s my hope. Would anyone be surprised if we get porked long term? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s my hope. Lets get this to happen for the kids sake, Nobody wants to step on broken legos all over the house. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z 3k gone wild Replica of last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Replica of last winter Can we get a nipple low scooter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z 3k gone wild Wow, if that comes to be my back yard will have 3-6" while my front yard will be ready for another mow! BTW, I saw a yellow Harley at a sushi place on the Seacoast about an hour ago. I wonder.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 18z gfs has an incredible storm around 384hr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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