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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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14 minutes ago, amc said:

GYX just in the past few minutes let part of their hazardous weather outlook drop for the coast and a swath of southern NH. Wonder if they don't buy it? GYX seems to have been very conservative with their snowfall forecasts the past few years.

can't speak for them, obviously, but there are caution flags for coastal southern cumberland county with this one, as have been noted in this thread.

i've kept track of there forecast "error" for PWM the past 2 winters.

 

2021-2022 - bias is over-forecast by 10.6" on the season, an average of 1" per each event (that was >1" observed).  Greatest margin over was 4.3" and 4.2" on 2/4/22 and 2/25/22 respectively.

2022-2023 - bias is under-forecast by 1.7" on the season, an average of 0.1" per each event (that was > 1" observed).  Greatest margin under being 3.8" on 12/16/2022. 

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4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Pretty chilly look at the sfc late Sunday, CF would be down into interior MA. Still trying to fight off some warmth around 925 though. 

this could be a fun little "surprise" for some. Might be a forecasting nightmare though for areas borderline. Some of those borderline locations end up a smidge colder and its easily close to several inches given the rates.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

All guidance onboard now, Just a matter of totals when it flips.

I'm thinking a strip of 10-16'' possible where the heaviest banding occurs and confidence seems to be increasing such a band will materialize. Certainly some support for 2''+ per hour rates based on some of the bufkit data.

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14 minutes ago, tunafish said:

can't speak for them, obviously, but there are caution flags for coastal southern cumberland county with this one, as have been noted in this thread.

i've kept track of there forecast "error" for PWM the past 2 winters.

 

2021-2022 - bias is over-forecast by 10.6" on the season, an average of 1" per each event (that was >1" observed).  Greatest margin over was 4.3" and 4.2" on 2/4/22 and 2/25/22 respectively.

2022-2023 - bias is under-forecast by 1.7" on the season, an average of 0.1" per each event (that was > 1" observed).  Greatest margin under being 3.8" on 12/16/2022. 

Nice stuff. Thanks.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you were lucky considering what happened in March.

I had 1.7” total in March. Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but from the moment we squandered last December’s pattern my small patch of valley land was never close to in the game. 

It’s all good though. New season is upon us. Not worth carrying those emotions into a different year. I really like your outlook and the general consensus that this isn’t a traditional mega Nino evolving. I feel cautiously optimistic that this’ll be a closer to normal year than the recent stretch. 

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