December 2023

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

You and Rays favorite IVT......lol

Could be the model/modeling trying to bring this north some..and not knowing exactly what to do with it currently?  Kind of way out still on the 6th..so that’s worth watching imo. 

[wxeyeNH]

49.1F  not bad for Dec 1rst.

Euro for the win if this transpires.  Here's the 12Z clown.  Kuchera and 10:1 are fairly close with Kuchera being a bit less which makes sense.

[weatherwiz]

GFS bufkit is pretty hefty thumping for PWM for a period. 

[MaineJayhawk]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already up to 51° with sun. Sneaky little torch day to start Dewcember. 

Riding the motorcycle?

 

[TheMainer]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s reasonable, I went 4-8” for starters here.

Got a new (to us) groomer to try out this winter, we still have an icy crust left, hoping for around 6-8 inches so I can drag an old bridge into a big water hole to fill it and get out and cut blowdowns on sleds. New sled hopefully will be here before Christmas. Definitely feels and looks as though we may break the trend of the past 3 crappy winters hopefully. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The inv dong of destiny in SW CT.

If that verified verbatim I might have to put a restraining order on Ray for SWCT. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If that verified verbatim I might have to put a restraining order on Ray for SWCT. 

Ya that’s a nice little hit…could be trending in a positive direction? We track. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Sorry for late reply, but short answer is yes.  That does not mean tweaks don't have to be made, but overall I prefer the euro evolution in the short and medium range terms...  

Agreed ...the Euro began a lean into a better fitted solution for the erstwhile telecon behavior - but also the observed mass field/synoptic evolution during the period - about 5 days ago at this point. 

Just wanna add for the general reader.  I suspect the GFS may not do as well in a warm ENSO hemisphere *IF* the longer term correlation of tending to meridian flow types/coupling transpires.  The La Nina was perhaps its recent hay-day during times when the hemisphere was more coupled.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can see this coming....people are going to get very impatient if nothing is imminent by mid month because the residual frustration from last season is still fresh. If you feel the urge to cancel winter and melt in December, then I would consider stepping away.

I saw what was coming and canceled early last year. This year however I think anything here imby before January 15 is gravy. No reason for panic or concern. Really just want decent upper level progression and an advisory event or two in December. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that’s a nice little hit…could be trending in a positive direction? We track. 

Always been a type of signal for that time period but expectations are tempered. 

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Got a new (to us) groomer to try out this winter, we still have an icy crust left, hoping for around 6-8 inches so I can drag an old bridge into a big water hole to fill it and get out and cut blowdowns on sleds. New sled hopefully will be here before Christmas. Definitely feels and looks as though we may break the trend of the past 3 crappy winters hopefully. 

Last winter was awful for temps but just fine for snow here, and thanks to the big dump in mid-December, was AN for SDDs as well.  Could've done without the 2nd mega-Grinch in 3 years, however.  A nice thump in early December and no Grinch would be an excellent start.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, radarman said:

Yeah... it's not even close to 18 skiing wise.  Sugarbush mid mountain had like 90" that month, and even in S VT we were skiing in 4' of pow at Magic, 100% open and in peak condition on 11/29. 

Wow

[weatherwiz]

Euro seems to look good up north. Looks like a heafy band would materialize 

[dryslot]

12z Euro ramped up a bit, Wide area of 10-15”

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I saw what was coming and canceled early last year. This year however I think anything here imby before January 15 is gravy. No reason for panic or concern. Really just want decent upper level progression and an advisory event or two in December. 

Always been a type of signal for that time period but expectations are tempered. 

Well, you were lucky considering what happened in March.

[CoastalWx]

I know it would be a mental binky for me if we somehow snuck in something before Christmas and then after. Not a blockbuster...but just enough to lift the monkey of awful Decembers off our back. 

[bwt3650]

Wow

It’s not 18, but def best since.


.

[weatherwiz]

Seems like the Euro gets several inches for PWM

[brooklynwx99]

i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Riding the motorcycle?

 

Check for me next week

[TalcottWx]

Hello. 

Goodbye. 

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter

That’s pretty damn typical of sig EL Nino years though.

Not an “out on a limb” forecast by any stretch but it looks like another have/have not season with much of interior NNE/coldest points of CNE doing quite well (AN snowfall) but persistent p type issues for the rest, BN snowfall.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That’s pretty damn typical of sig EL Nino years though.

Not an “out on a limb” forecast by any stretch but it looks like another have/have not season with much of interior NNE/coldest points of CNE doing quite well (AN snowfall) but persistent p type issues for the rest, BN snowfall.

strong to super Ninos have a pretty significant dearth of blocking in December. it is unusual to see a persistent -NAO this early 

Ninos that do have -NAO Decembers carry it over through the rest of the winter more than not, though

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe we don't cash in on it....depends on how it breaks, but we should see some big blocks IMO.

 

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. Below are monthly AO averages following Novembers where the AO fell to -2.500 or below during the last week of the month, as happened this year.

 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If that verified verbatim I might have to put a restraining order on Ray for SWCT. 

Clown map over 2 weeks out. 
Stop.

[weatherwiz]

Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too

[amc]

GYX just in the past few minutes let part of their hazardous weather outlook drop for the coast and a swath of southern NH. Wonder if they don't buy it? GYX seems to have been very conservative with their snowfall forecasts the past few years.

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies continue to look great near the holidays when the MJO goes into the favorable phases

[brooklynwx99]

weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We can usually lock those weeklies up a month in advance 

[wx2fish]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too

Pretty chilly look at the sfc late Sunday, CF would be down into interior MA. Still trying to fight off some warmth around 925 though.