ineedsnow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: What a cave job by the GFS, Euro will score the win on the 4th. Yup I wish it could cool off just a bit more looks like fun north of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: What a cave job by the GFS, Euro will score the win on the 4th. Was just thinking that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Yup I wish it could cool off just a bit more looks like fun north of here Models sniff out the colder air as we get closer, That 12z GFS came in a few tics cooler this run, If that would continue, You could get into some of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Was just thinking that. Not even debatable really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 GFS trying for the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline. I believe so too, It won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS trying for the 6th. You and Rays favorite IVT......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: You and Rays favorite IVT......lol The inv dong of destiny in SW CT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 hours ago, mreaves said: Here is how November ended in VT BTV -2.1° MPV -1.7° MVL -.7° November numbers: Mean: 31.0 -2.4 Avg max: 39.8 -2.5 Mildest, 52 on the 7th Avg min: 22.2 -2.3 Coldest, 11 on the 30th Precip: 2.63" -1.58" Highest day, 1.03" on the 27th Snowfall: 4.9" +0.3" 4.6" fell on the 22nd. Some pleasant (but small-sample-size) November temp/snow trends: 2023 was the 12th with BN temps. The previous 11 had 114% of avg snow, 9 had AN snow and 7 of our 10 with triple-digit totals came with November having BN temps. October 2023 had well above average temps. The 5 years with Oct AN and Nov BN had 125% of avg snow and all 5 were AN, though 12-13 by less than 2". I certainly hope the trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 A little surprised there’s not much in the way of a mixed ptype zone in the soundings. It’s pretty much riding the line isothermal here. That subtle BD and CADing out ahead of the primary is the real key for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Decent shortwave. That would prob produce snow for someone if it tracked like that on 12/6. Not expecting it though until other guidance gets more amped. I still think there’s a chance for something in the several days after that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I believe so too, It won't take much. there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Decent shortwave. That would prob produce snow for someone if it tracked like that on 12/6. Not expecting it though until other guidance gets more amped. I still think there’s a chance for something in the several days after that too. That would actually probably be pretty nice for interior SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: A little surprised there’s not much in the way of a mixed ptype zone in the soundings. It’s pretty much riding the line isothermal here. That subtle BD and CADing out ahead of the primary is the real key for snow here. 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc. If I'm interpreting correctly that brings me slightly closer to snow here in PWM. Still RN verbatim on the GFS, but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc. The HP position and colder air with it places my area in a good spot for bleed of CAD as that S/W gains latitude and winds veer to 20 degrees or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, tunafish said: If I'm interpreting correctly that brings me slightly closer to snow here in PWM. Still RN verbatim on the GFS, but close. Close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, tunafish said: If I'm interpreting correctly that brings me slightly closer to snow here in PWM. Still RN verbatim on the GFS, but close. That’s 925…probably a flip to snow for you at some point in the 2nd half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Yeah looking at the GFS I think PWM would probably start as rain but verbatim would probably flip over to snow, especially with heavier rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 As Chris mentioned earlier for the coast it comes down to rates, GFS shows how you can get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc. Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot. It's certainly cutting it close. Some minor ticks in each direction on the GFS would be pretty huge in terms of result. If the Euro can remain steadfast at 12z that may be enough to increase the excitement level a bit, but want to at least see these subtle trends through 0z tonight/12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The inv dong of destiny in SW CT. I try to keep up with the technical jargon here but some terms are simply above my pay grade. This one seems to be deep into the Journeyman or early Master phase of the craft. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 13 hours ago, WinterWolf said: So can I ask you John, does the upper air pattern and pattern recognition match what the Euro is spitting out today? And if it does, then should we expect the Euros idea from today to prevail? Sorry for late reply, but short answer is yes. That does not mean tweaks don't have to be made, but overall I prefer the euro evolution in the short and medium range terms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot. I see what you talking about regarding concerns about the secondary getting going later. I wouldn't expect much there...maybe up to several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Already up to 51° with sun. Sneaky little torch day to start Dewcember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 52.3F. So much for getting some frost in the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That’s reasonable, I went 4-8” for starters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 hours ago, mreaves said: Exactly! That's why they said it! Today's going to be in the '50s and cloudy. Not much risk for drifting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now