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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It would…but we’ll all be long dead. It’ll suck for the weather geeks at that point. 

Model discrepancies and variability is what keeps the science alive...  Just like a good forecaster needs to analyze the actual pattern, surface and aloft, they also need to assess whether or not a particular model run makes sense given the nature of the current atmospheric setup... If it does, why does it make sense and is it believable?  If it doesn't make sense, you have to figure out what is causing it to go astray?  One of the reasons I think there are folks that think the modeling has gotten worse is that they don't realize years ago pattern recognition and analysis played a bigger role in forecasting than it does now, in some, not all quarters.  Today I see some folks (I'm talking in general, not about anyone on this forum) spending 99% of their time looking at all and every modeling product, but rarely studying any actual data maps...  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

 And if The Euro blinks…this is exactly what I was talking about this morning.  I hope for your guys sake, it holds steadfast, and schools the GFS this time around. 

Meh that blink is like a tenth of precip lol. Noise really. Wolfie if there's gonna be a big dog it's the 6th 7th woo that looks ripe. Just need it to hug a little more. Watch 850 east flow close

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh that blink is like a tenth of precip lol. Noise really. Wolfie if there's gonna be a big dog it's the 6th 7th woo that looks ripe. Just need it to hug a little more. Watch 850 east flow close

fyi I’m not saying 18z euro was the “blink”. 

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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Model discrepancies and variability is what keeps the science alive...  Just like a good forecaster needs to analyze the actual pattern, surface and aloft, they also need to assess whether or not a particular model run makes sense given the nature of the current atmospheric setup... If it does, why does it make sense and is it believable?  If it doesn't make sense, you have to figure out what is causing it to go astray?  One of the reasons I think there are folks that think the modeling has gotten worse is that they don't realize years ago pattern recognition and analysis played a bigger role in forecasting than it does now, in some, not all quarters.  Today I see some folks (I'm talking in general, not about anyone on this forum) spending 99% of their time looking at all and every modeling product, but rarely studying any actual data maps...  

So can I ask you John, does the upper air pattern and pattern recognition match what the Euro is spitting out today? And if it does, then should we expect the Euros idea from today to prevail? 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh that blink is like a tenth of precip lol. Noise really. Wolfie if there's gonna be a big dog it's the 6th 7th woo that looks ripe. Just need it to hug a little more. Watch 850 east flow close

Oh ya Steve, I was talking for Jeff and his crew in NNE.  Be nice if we could cash in on a little something next Wednesday.  Let’s sharpen up that ridge and trough a bit more to turn it up this way maybe.  

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 And if The Euro blinks…this is exactly what I was talking about this morning.  I hope for your guys sake, it holds steadfast, and schools the GFS this time around. 

Greens, Whites and Mahoosuc's and the county will continue to build, Up and in.

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Even up here the coast seems like it's tough shape given current ensembles. There is some mean snowfall, but the 50th percentiles are all snowless along the coast suggesting some big members are dragging that mean up. 

But the cluster that features a little pump up ridge ahead of the wave are the ones that are snowier. 

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"Short wave is deamplifying as it traverses the area, therefore expecting mainly light rain with rainfall totals only 0.01 to 0.10. A few spots could receive up to 0.25 inches, but not expecting any poor drainage/street flooding. Dew pts climb into the 40s tonight across RI and southeast MA. Thus, a mild night but these high dew pts likely result in areas of fog. Cooler across CT into western- central MA, but most locations remain above freezing, therefore not expecting any icy spots."

 

Why would you expect flooding with a quarter inch of rain?

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I could see a scenario where the first wave kind of warms over the air mass and the second, snowier wave struggles to accumulate if the rates aren't there. 

A better air mass prior would offset any of this, But its quite marginal and have to see if you get some decent rates, Euro looks to intensify that 2nd wave fairly quickly on some of these prior runs so it brings snow right to the coast, We shall see over the next few cycles if this continues.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we snooze awhile in the long range. 

Little bit of split flow trying to show up over the center of the country on some of these runs so we may need to watch. Otherwise, yeah, might be a boring period in that 12/10-12/17 range…

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we snooze awhile in the long range. 

 

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Little bit of split flow trying to show up over the center of the country on some of these runs so we may need to watch. Otherwise, yeah, might be a boring period in that 12/10-12/17 range…

Interesting takes, let's see how it evolves. Don't trust modeling at all. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Interesting takes, let's see how it evolves. Don't trust modeling at all. 

Not a fan of the Pacific look. Mild temps. There is some ridging that develops into Greenland later in the period. Maybe we can tap that when the Pacific improves. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not a fan of the Pacific look. Mild temps. There is some ridging that develops into Greenland later in the period. Maybe we can tap that when the Pacific improves. 

i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain

IMG_3598.thumb.png.9648a210301cf6ea4474c9b9739e83cb.png

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