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December 2023


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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I hope the GFS is in the boat of setting the stage for wave #2 (or whatever number you want to call it).

I’d just refer to it as the 12/6 wave. Seems to be on its own with that idea for the most part since yesterday. Though there’s been a very small number of EPS members that try to show it too. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d just refer to it as the 12/6 wave. Seems to be on its own with that idea for the most part since yesterday. Though there’s been a very small number of EPS members that try to show it too. 

It's probably going to be quite difficult to determine how likely such a scenario is until we have a clearer picture of how 12/4 unfolds. The differences between the GFS/Euro are still pretty striking. Euro really cranks this up with a closed, but large H5 with a pretty intense jet streak at the base...also has double-barrel low. GFS is just a weak mangled mess. Euro's consistency though is a bit noteworthy.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Better air mass for the 6th too, That would support snow if its real and you can get it up the coast instead of scooting east.

As has been happening for years now, we’re going to get the opposite of what we want, meaning, we’re going to get the dung system that’s going to screw up the potentially better one.

Rinse and repeat 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As has been happening for years now, we’re going to get the opposite of what we want, meaning, we’re going to get the dung system that’s going to screw up the potentially better one.

Rinse and repeat 

That is a good possibility, Air mass is marginal on the first one but has ticked colder too, So probably going to need to wait a bit longer to see which one of these waves becomes the more dominant, Lot of moving parts to reconcile.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too bad that energy is crashing the NW....this the problem the first half of December and why its an uphill battle. Its not prohibitively warm, but that Pac jet isn't allowing the flow to amplify enough.

The issue is plenty correctable at this rage, but you need immaculate timing to have the Pac wave slow down.

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I don’t think 12/6 is going to have enough room. Other guidance doesn’t like it. The 12/4 system doesn’t look very good either outside of far NNE unless we can get some trends toward the Euro today (which we haven’t…we’ve actually gotten worse trends so far for 12/4)

Theres still some time to change things, but so far my best guess is we likely are stuck in the least optimal scenario…12/4 ends up way too warm and 12/6 gets suppressed. To be fair, this was also the most likely solution over the past couple of days. 

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17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What does that have to do with the overall picture? 

It has plenty…lots of us didn’t get even close to what you got in 1/22(8-9” here), yet you’re still complaining?.  And that’s the point.  You’ve done better there than you should have for a decade, welcome back to reality Brett. 

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3 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

I think all the models are now garbage. Every time they adjust them they ruin them more, I don’t think we can know whether it’ll be snow, rain, or out to sea until 24 hours, sometimes 12 hours before.

Yea, I think in this case we have pretty good idea that were are porked several days in advance.

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