December 2023

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Even Mainers waving white flags 

https://x.com/nwsgray/status/1739672559267000563?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ekster tweeted that from the 19th hole. 

[WinterWolf]

I thought the pattern after this 28-30 thing was supposed to vastly improve? Going into the new year? No? 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was something pushed back (serious question )

 

I mean a good to very good  early January pattern seems like it became serviceable to maybe good for (beginning to middle January)  . Maybe semantics 

then there was a period of “relaxation” mid month on ..talked about which sometimes means dog crap for coastal SNE and serviceable for CNE/NNE (it will be peak climo there ) and then there was the hope/ idea that some SSW and or blocking shortened significantly the above mentioned period of meh and we entered a decent El Niño pattern for end of January 

In snowmobiling obviously, There's no snow making, Northern Maine was off to a good start with Lakes, Ponds and bogs frozen and a decent hard pack base, Some were already riding logging roads, After the last storm last week, All of it is wiped out, The amount of damage to bridges and downed trees is severe, Were back to October ground conditions as far as frozen is concerned.

So even if everything that's projected coming up comes thru, It will be Feb the earliest to be able to get out there, And that's provided there's no delay with any of it, The clocks ticking each day, With no cold around right now, We cant even begin the process, And its not just snowmobiling, Its smelt fishing, Ice fishing and all other winter recreation plus the states winter tourism is non exsistant because you can't even get to a ski area either.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the pattern after this 28-30 thing was supposed to vastly improve? Going into the new year? No? 

It improves. Time for the season though to shit or get off the pot.

[Lava Rock]

Morning from Ventura. Some nice breakers

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the pattern after this 28-30 thing was supposed to vastly improve? Going into the new year? No? 

In my mind it improves the same way part of the Atlantic basin improves in early August—it’s great to see the upper level window open just as climo starts to ramp up, but it usually takes time for something good to cook. 

I understand the angst around here, annoying as it is. While I wish what @Torch Tiger said was true, this is emphatically a winter forum. This is the end all be all for a lot of posters and when you’re staring at ~16 weeks where it can legitimately snow the clock ticks and winter lovers get anxious. 

I genuinely like where we are. We absolutely need to produce eventually, but the first step is just opening the window. We’re getting there. The next benchmark is mid-January for me.

[SouthCoastMA]

feels like early April. so festive

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the pattern after this 28-30 thing was supposed to vastly improve? Going into the new year? No? 

There may be a problem in qualifying the outlook as "vastly" this or that.

It's more encouraging for winter enthusiasts.  Not speaking to you directly here ... but it may be useful to not 'color' expectations with adjectives. ha

[Go Kart Mozart]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the pattern after this 28-30 thing was supposed to vastly improve? Going into the new year? No? 

The fun begins 1/20 to maybe 1/27.  A four week spell can make for a great winter down here.  I'll bet you have fond memories 2010-2011...or ENE in 14-15.  And before some moron chimes in that 2015 is not walking through that door....that's not the point.  We can have a great month without 100".

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

In my mind it improves the same way part of the Atlantic basin improves in early August—it’s great to see the upper level window open just as climo starts to ramp up, but it usually takes time for something good to cook. 

I understand the angst around here, annoying as it is. While I wish what @Torch Tiger said was true, this is emphatically a winter forum. This is the end all be all for a lot of posters and when you’re staring at ~16 weeks where it can legitimately snow the clock ticks and winter lovers get anxious. 

I genuinely like where we are. We absolutely need to produce eventually, but the first step is just opening the window. We’re getting there. The next benchmark is mid-January for me.

Looks like the first real cold wintery system for the east coast is next Tuesday / Wednesday. At this juncture it appears it will slide south but it’s far enough out that could change . Some in various areas of SNE  could score a “wintery episode” late Friday into early Saturday 

[Lava Rock]

For some reason I thought last year wad better early on but reviewing my journal it was not. Other than the 15" storm middle of Dec, we poured on the 23rd and went back to grass by NYE. Things didn't improve until Jan 18th or so and we had a decent stretch for 2-3 wks to then have big warmup in Feb. March was decent. Somehow despite the slow start and mediocre rest of season we still managed 98". I've said it before, I'd gladly take the mean of 73" on the season if we just had avg temps and good retention

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[TauntonBlizzard2013]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It improves. Time for the season though to shit or get off the pot.

People citing 2015 as an example of a late season start are just deluding themselves. You can’t use a once in a lifetime turnaround as a benchmark for why this season could End up okay.

Like I said earlier, you can only can kick so much before you are out of time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like I said earlier, you can only can kick so much before you are out of time.

Or break your foot . You may need a walking boot soon 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

For some reason I thought last year wad better early on but reviewing my journal it was not. Other than the 15" storm middle of Dec, we poured on the 23rd and went back to grass by NYE. Things didn't improve until Jan 18th or so and we had a decent stretch for 2-3 wks to then have big warmup in Feb. March was decent. Somehow despite the slow start and mediocre rest of season we still managed 98". I've said it before, I'd gladly take the mean of 73" on the season if we just had avg temps and good retention

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

When I went on my ski trip last Jan North Conway was bare ground when we got there. They got a storm that night and it was off to the races for a few weeks but I had never seen bare ground up there at that time of the season, even in “bad” years 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

For some reason I thought last year wad better early on but reviewing my journal it was not. Other than the 15" storm middle of Dec, we poured on the 23rd and went back to grass by NYE. Things didn't improve until Jan 18th or so and we had a decent stretch for 2-3 wks to then have big warmup in Feb. March was decent. Somehow despite the slow start and mediocre rest of season we still managed 98". I've said it before, I'd gladly take the mean of 73" on the season if we just had avg temps and good retention

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Some folks grade the season based solely on the amount of snow they see. (SNE especially coastal plain and areas South) because there isn’t much retention and or some could literally care less. With more winter enthusiasts in CNE/NNE it seems snow pack / retention has generally a higher weighting toward grading a winter. The amount of cutters is weighted to , I think you had many of those last year but since you have elevation and were closer to the cold source you had a good number of snowers as well .

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People citing 2015 as an example of a late season start are just deluding themselves. You can’t use a once in a lifetime turnaround as a benchmark for why this season could End up okay.

Like I said earlier, you can only can kick so much before you are out of time.

Strawman though…lots of seasons (eps El Niño seasons) made good comebacks without being as prolific as 2015….do we think ‘57-58, ‘65-‘66, ‘66-‘67, ‘02-03 (coastline), ‘12-‘13 (coastline) were all meh winters because we didn’t get 100” in 3 weeks like 2014-15?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Strawman though…lots of seasons (eps El Niño seasons) made good comebacks without being as prolific as 2015….do we think ‘57-58, ‘65-‘66, ‘66-‘67, ‘02-03 (coastline), ‘12-‘13 (coastline) were all meh winters because we didn’t get 100” in 3 weeks like 2014-15?

Snow is a drug , 100” inches in 3 weeks ruined many . Hate to see it . 
 

That one system that just kept going and going (at the end ) in 2015 was the best , my car buried in a parking lot in Melrose and wasn’t even worth trying to shovel 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People citing 2015 as an example of a late season start are just deluding themselves. You can’t use a once in a lifetime turnaround as a benchmark for why this season could End up okay.

Like I said earlier, you can only can kick so much before you are out of time.

Brett, nobody is f’n deluded. If anything, you may be deluded. Once in a lifetime season not withstanding, the point is many seasons start late (especially in ninos).  December 26th, and we’re running out of time is downright comical. 
 

2002-2003 was excellent, January of ‘11 was fabulous. Feb abs March of 2013, 14-15 the last few days of Jan and February rocked(again especially for you), March of 18 especially out east where you live was too..what are those? Are those once in a lifetime too?  C’mon bro, it’s always the same tune from you. We’ve tried to explain you’ve been spoiled since you were eating your own boogers, wise up for god sakes. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

There could be maybe be a snow dependency support group that meets once a week 

I certainly couldn’t be a counselor there 

Id sneak people away Lol and drive to mountain elevations or fly if necessary 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

In snowmobiling obviously, There's no snow making, Northern Maine was off to a good start with Lakes, Ponds and bogs frozen and a decent hard pack base, Some were already riding logging roads, After the last storm last week, All of it is wiped out, The amount of damage to bridges and downed trees is severe, Were back to October ground conditions as far as frozen is concerned.

So even if everything that's projected coming up comes thru, It will be Feb the earliest to be able to get out there, And that's provided there's no delay with any of it, The clocks ticking each day, With no cold around right now, We cant even begin the process, And its not just snowmobiling, Its smelt fishing, Ice fishing and all other winter recreation plus the states winter tourism is non exsistant because you can't even get to a ski area either.

It's not like you can even trailer to Quebec either.

[NW_of_GYX]

51 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

For some reason I thought last year wad better early on but reviewing my journal it was not. Other than the 15" storm middle of Dec, we poured on the 23rd and went back to grass by NYE. Things didn't improve until Jan 18th or so and we had a decent stretch for 2-3 wks to then have big warmup in Feb. March was decent. Somehow despite the slow start and mediocre rest of season we still managed 98". I've said it before, I'd gladly take the mean of 73" on the season if we just had avg temps and good retention

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Great post. The way this season is unfolding is so similar to last year. Anomalous warmth all last year too but we managed to go AN in snowfall. ENSO this ENSO that but without any cold in our source region the outcome doesn’t look much different.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

47 in Bedford Mass, Sun out , no wind . Comfortable 

[dryslot]

52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some folks grade the season based solely on the amount of snow they see. (SNE especially coastal plain and areas South) because there isn’t much retention and or some could literally care less. With more winter enthusiasts in CNE/NNE it seems snow pack / retention has generally a higher weighting toward grading a winter. The amount of cutters is weighted to , I think you had many of those last year but since you have elevation and were closer to the cold source you had a good number of snowers as well .

Correct, I don't care if it snows in my BY i don't ride here anymore due to a 1-2 week window the last several years, The pack is needed for riding to cover up obstacles in the trails like rocks and roots, etc,etc A couple of 7-9:1 mash potato storms in the 3-6"/4-8"+ range with some cold and off we go.

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Correct, I don't care if it snows in my BY i don't ride here anymore due to a 1-2 week window the last several years, The pack is needed for riding to cover up obstacles in the trails like rocks and roots, etc,etc A couple of 7-9:1 mash potato storms in the 3-6"/4-8"+ range with some cold and off we go.

I sold my sleds trailer and camp 2 yrs ago. Best decision I made in a long time. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

I sold my sleds trailer and camp 2 yrs ago. Best decision I made in a long time. 

Maybe for you. Not for all of us. 

[Lava Rock]

In snowmobiling obviously, There's no snow making, Northern Maine was off to a good start with Lakes, Ponds and bogs frozen and a decent hard pack base, Some were already riding logging roads, After the last storm last week, All of it is wiped out, The amount of damage to bridges and downed trees is severe, Were back to October ground conditions as far as frozen is concerned.
So even if everything that's projected coming up comes thru, It will be Feb the earliest to be able to get out there, And that's provided there's no delay with any of it, The clocks ticking each day, With no cold around right now, We cant even begin the process, And its not just snowmobiling, Its smelt fishing, Ice fishing and all other winter recreation plus the states winter tourism is non exsistant because you can't even get to a ski area either.

There's always beer

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Great post. The way this season is unfolding is so similar to last year. Anomalous warmth all last year too but we managed to go AN in snowfall. ENSO this ENSO that but without any cold in our source region the outcome doesn’t look much different.

Hey if you go above normal again…what’s the gripe?  I’ll sign for that in a heartbeat.  

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

There's always beer

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Maybe once i'm off the antibiotics i'll have one.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe for you. Not for all of us. 

You may need to replace yours with a jet ski. 

[WinterWolf]

Ya, I’m not worried at all over the sledding season. It’ll take off the next couple weeks, and all will be right with the world for us sledders.