December 2023

[iceman1]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

What a ridiculous post. Sad. 

why you dont like facts i did use my snow blower once  last winter 

[CoastalWx]

EPS means pulls it up by the Cape, but overall a decent look, especially near MA/NH border north.  There's going to be some model struggles.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

why you dont like facts i did use my snow blower once  last winter 

I love facts..what you posted was garbage, not even close to a fact. Try harder please. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s how you run an early season snowstorm down here. Thread the needle 

Ya, that’s a good hit here. 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, FrankRizz said:

Is that for Monday/Tuesday or the Dec 14th?

This coming Monday. The panels posted are for Monday afternoon and evening. Like Will said though, this has bounced around so much on the guidance it’s really not worth doing anything other than analyzing the synoptic trend. 

[iceman1]

23 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

To be fair, Tip posted the 372 hour last night.

BOOM bring it baby 

[iceman1]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I love facts..what you posted was garbage, not even close to a fact. Try harder please. 

fact is i got nothing  last year  if you dont like my post sorry move on i am just stating that my area got crap for snow all winter 

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS means pulls it up by the Cape, but overall a decent look, especially near MA/NH border north.  There's going to be some model struggles.

EPS has looked good for those areas you outlined now for several runs, Climo favored for now, Up and in.

[ORH_wxman]

There are still a few members trying for Dec 6th too. Not as many as 12/4 but still worth keeping an eye on. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS means pulls it up by the Cape, but overall a decent look, especially near MA/NH border north.  There's going to be some model struggles.

I suspect this is the leader run for a consensus

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, FrankRizz said:

Is that for Monday/Tuesday or the Dec 14th?

The dates are right on the map. Just look at where it says valid date. Shows the fourth

[dryslot]

Looks like the system on the 4th on the euro tries to become a 50/50 low, Not sure the 6th could work if that was the case unless the 4th is delayed until the 6th.

[Layman]

48 minutes ago, FrankRizz said:

Is that for Monday/Tuesday or the Dec 14th?

I interpret these as:

Init: = Initialized (?). When the data was run to create the image

12Z = in Zulu/GMT time (7am EST)

29NOV2023 = date data was processed/run to create image

126hr = number of hours out into the future from the initialized date/time

Valid = when the image is "valid" for

Mon = Monday

18Z = in Zulu/GMT time (1pm EST)

04DEC2023 = date for when the image/data is forecasting/predicting for

 

So yes, the valid time is posted on the image and in this case, 7am EST Monday December 4, 2023.

If I've gotten any of these wrong, someone can please correct me.

 

[greenmtnwx]

Euro snow maps?

[George001]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Normally we’d be pumped at a 126-132 solution on the euro but this thing  has been changing every run so it’s prob gonna be a couple more cycles before confidence is high  

 

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

this would suck if verified

Any pack fully wiped, even resorts

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Layman said:

I interpret these as:

Init: = Initialized (?). When the data was run to create the image

12Z = time, noon (in Zulu/Military/24hr time)

29NOV2023 = date data was processed/run to create image

126hr = number of hours out into the future from the initialized date/time

Valid = when the image is "valid" for

Mon = Monday

18Z = 8pm EST time (in Zulu/Military/24hr time)

04DEC2023 = date for when the image/data is forecasting/predicting for

 

So yes, the valid time is posted on the image and in this case, 8pm Monday evening December 4, 2023.

If I've gotten any of these wrong, someone can please correct me.

 

Times are zulu/GMT...not EST.

12z is 7am EST and 18z is 1pm EST

[Layman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Times are zulu/GMT...not EST.

12z is 7am EST and 18z is 1pm EST

Corrected original post - thank you

[George001]

47 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s how you run an early season snowstorm down here. Thread the needle 

With the December Atlantic ssts I need to see surface temps in the mid to upper 20s before jumping on board. Marginal events do not work for us in December. When you have marginal thermal profiles at this time of year, take the under on those 10:1 maps. That said, I’m glad ski areas are getting hit.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's like a climate snow signal for any given Dec 6  ... Maybe a little above that.

 

[iceman1]

going to be a close call for ct  on the fourth alittle more south with the rain snow line would be nice 

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway ... I suspect the first wave is the dominant.  The only reason I do is because of history; more often than not in these wave contention scenarios the lead wave ends up the one that gets the job done. 

The 2nd wave 'crowding' along in the flow 'kind of' also fits into the model lensing/'magnification' aspect of too much longer range amplitude correcting.  If/when they necessarily back off, that opens up the flow when it corrects and then the lead wave takes over. 

[Snowcrazed71]

17 minutes ago, FrankRizz said:

I'm an old man I don't see so well lol.

Not far behind you. I'll be 52 in a week, and my eyesight for close-up is starting to go lol

[Greg]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area. 

True, but we can still cash in when we have the upper 20's and low 30s a t this time of year. The mid 30 would be toward the Boston and SouthShore areas for sure but if the dynamics take over it would start as a mix, then a wet sleety snow for those areas.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, FrankRizz said:

Is that for Monday/Tuesday or the Dec 14th?

Beer

22 minutes ago, George001 said:

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area. 

More beer

 

[tamarack]

49 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

fact is i got nothing  last year  if you dont like my post sorry move on i am just stating that my area got crap for snow all winter 

Can't argue about how bad last winter was for most of SNE, but your response to Ray, below, infers the same for this winter, with no evidence offered.  Too early to throw in the towel.
 

Posted 3 hours ago

  4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're all in agreement snow will be a tall task during the first two weeks of the month in SNE.

and the last 2 weeks and Jan and so on 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are still a few members trying for Dec 6th too. Not as many as 12/4 but still worth keeping an eye on. 

Like was discussed yesterday, 12/6 prob has the best airmass and best “shot” for the coastal plain, but the OP euro shows how 12/4 could work.

Not surprising the ensembles are less enthusiastic about SNE snow on 12/4. OP run is probably on the snowy side of the suite.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

True, but we can still cash in when we have the upper 20's and low 30s a t this time of year. The mid 30 would be toward the Boston and SouthShore areas for sure but if the dynamics take over it would start as a mix, then a wet sleety snow for those areas.

It’s possible, but betting on dynamics to overcome a marginal airmass is a losing proposition more often than not. The return rate for these marginal types of events is much lower than it is when we have a better airmass in place. The problem is a stronger more phased storm will be more tucked, and draw in more mild air. There is a window where it’s just phased enough to dynamically cool the column but also not so phased the low tucks in to much, but that window is very small.

[dryslot]

Threading the needle this early on in marginal conditions can be a daunting task.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Can't argue about how bad last winter was for most of SNE, but your response to Ray, below, infers the same for this winter, with no evidence offered.  Too early to throw in the towel.
 

Posted 3 hours ago

  4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're all in agreement snow will be a tall task during the first two weeks of the month in SNE.

and the last 2 weeks and Jan and so on 

And this was my exact point to him…but he couldn’t figure it out.