December 2023

[Torch Tiger]

concerns

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

concerns

Sweet. I just got that 0.1” out of the way tonight.

[FXWX]

50 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The blocking is literally in the same exact spot as that weeklies map 

Who are you going to believe, ORH or qg-omega?  lol... not really a fair fight.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah fuck her. This whole “we’re NNE and we can take whatever comes at us and fix what breaks” is bullshit. It was communicated well. MEMA needs to take a look in the mirror. 

I would say the winds and coastal flooding over performed 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sweet. I just got that 0.1” out of the way tonight.

Congrats

[ineedsnow]

Light dusting here we take this year

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It better snow when it can or else -

...actually, I suspect the warm bias in the east and especially the NE has in part to do with the fact that like the polar regions ( relatively speaking ...) we have more room to rise than the west coast.  

Doesn't explain the Dakotas very well but that's why I say 'in part'  ... Think of it as 'trough cold' is less.   Florida and south TX warming is interesting too -

Funny, max snow increases overlay just about exactly with the largest temp iump.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is most certainly a pattern change to colder coming , but it doesn’t look particular conductive to warning events before that look appears to wane mid month . That is generally what I take from a “ensemble” blend of many forecasters . I would probably set my sights on a couple advisory events hopefully first half of January but that is just a literal guess , maybe others think that part is more unpredictable and something bigger may pop 

Accurate.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would say the winds and coastal flooding over performed 

I mean they had 60-65 for winds. So is 68 a bust?  Maybe the best winds extended inland a bit more, but from what I saw, it was communicated well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Apparently you didn’t look at this then .

 

That is expected...the pattern will shift serviceable, not great, for a couple of weeks before another mild stretch.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I mean they had 60-65 for winds. So is 68 a bust?  Maybe the best winds extended inland a bit more, but from what I saw, it was communicated well.

I’m surprised she Didn’t have a direct line to DIT at times like that 

[OceanStWx]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would say the winds and coastal flooding over performed 

We actually ended up not even flooding at PWM. A few vulnerable coastal spots did, but otherwise it was NBD on the coastal flooding up here. So if anything we hyped that too much. I think the timing of the tide and worst winds didn't overlap like forecasts showed 24 hours earlier.

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean they had 60-65 for winds. So is 68 a bust?  Maybe the best winds extended inland a bit more, but from what I saw, it was communicated well.

This was my Sunday evening update that expanded the high wind warning. I'm not upset with it at all. 50 mph all the way to Sugarloaf? That's going to do some damage.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Who are you going to believe, ORH or qg-omega?  lol... not really a fair fight.

I would have at least given out extra credit points if he said that pattern wouldn’t work in 2023 but instead he just tried to gaslight everyone and say the weeklies were further south than the ‘83 map even though both of them are right in front of us to see.

Jan 1958 also had a similar look. What’s funny about Jan ‘58 is even though it was a pretty snowy month (esp interior), there was a storm late that month which was a perfect benchmark track that was mostly rain. Imagine what the discourse would be in here this season if a late January storm in an El Niño produced a mostly rain event on an ideal track….
 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We actually ended up not even flooding at PWM. A few vulnerable coastal spots did, but otherwise it was NBD on the coastal flooding up here. So if anything we hyped that too much. I think the timing of the tide and worst winds didn't overlap like forecasts showed 24 hours earlier.

This was my Sunday evening update that expanded the high wind warning. I'm not upset with it at all. 50 mph all the way to Sugarloaf? That's going to do some damage.

Can’t argue with what you posted. I know that further down the coast and into PVD surge over performed.  I figured that meso low or whatever that feature was that was South of Falmouth then brushed Pym county coast did some hard to predict havoc into Maine . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We got festive flurries in ASH

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can’t argue with what you posted. I know that further down the coast and into PVD surge over performed.  I figured that meso low or whatever that feature was that was South of Falmouth then brushed Pym county coast did some hard to predict havoc into Maine . 

Yeah, the tide was a couple hours earlier down there and overlapped the winds better. 4-5 ft surge is impressive.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

When did you become Fear in Tolland?

Scared over the euro weaklies

That’s an exotically negative NOA 

… not sure what the problem with that is. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS still trying for the 30th 

[dryslot]

What the hell is the 0z GFS doing?  lol

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What the hell is the 0z GFS doing?  lol

It’s just continuing along the same tortured slow creeping trend of the last two days … 

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s just continuing along the tortured slow creeping trend of the last two days …

The first wave on the 27-28th is much weaker and its trying to amplify the follow up around the 30th.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The first wave on the 27-28th is much weaker and its trying to amplify the follow up around the 30th.

I posted that on the 18 Z… people don’t pay attention to these posts, do they lol

it’s like a page or two ago… Granted there’s some snark there, but I was saying if we could just get that leading piece of shit out of the way that we would have a chance to do exactly what this run’s doing.

we’ll see what happens. Obviously we’re gonna need other guidance to jump on board and would also be nice to have a little more decent looking. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I posted that on the 18 Z… people don’t pay attention to these posts, do they lol

it’s like a page or two ago… Granted there’s some snark there, but I was saying if we could just get that leading piece of shit out of the way that we would have a chance to do exactly what this run’s doing.
 

we’ll see what happens. Obviously we’re gonna need other guidance to jump on board and would also be nice to have a little more decent looking. 

I didn't actually see what you posted earlier, I was at a family Christmas party and only had skimmed the last couple pages, But now that i went and looked back, Yes, I agree, Just make this more of a FROPA on the 27-28th and give that follow up more room, There's colder air in place for that one too after the passage of the 27-28th.

[Typhoon Tip]

Decent trough coming down behind that too.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure that’ll turn around in time, but at least reinforce the cold 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I didn't actually see what you posted earlier, I was at a family Christmas party and only had skimmed the last couple pages, But now that i went and looked back, Yes, I agree, Just make this more of a FROPA on the 27-28th and give that follow up more room, There's colder air in place for that one too after the passage of the 27-28th.

Oh I know. Ha. 

I noticed a couple days ago tho… The aerial expense of all that warm anomaly seemed to really be keyed into the inability for that trough to really deliver the cold in the lower troposphere, but that appeared  secondary to the fact that there were too many short waves - it couldn’t resolve so it was causing a warm bias.

About that time it started trying to consolidate this one around the 30th and that’s when we started noticing some incrementally colder solutions entering at least Pennsylvania New York State and western New England.

Ever since it’s been a game of inches
 

 

[Ginx snewx]

14 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Are we approaching any annual precipitation records in SNE? I know starting off January and February think 2+ rain events were impressive but back to back 4+ event here in December in a weeks time is shocking to say the least. Couple that with all the rain this summer got to think we are closing are some records in some areas?

68 here so far. Record for CT is 78 

[yoda]

I thought @weatherwiz was in FL, not MT

 

[kdxken]

Did the sun even come up today? Talk about gloomy.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Did the sun even come up today? Talk about gloomy.

Light dawns on a nice clean yard finally. Just nude looking out and sipping coffee.