December 2023

[tamarack]

10 minutes ago, radarman said:

Dec 2015 was the second warmest on record at INL (soon to be 3rd).  Also featured well BN snows.  Figure some additional amount of climate warming, plus the (solar max related?) AO spike the last 2+ weeks, with a particularly hostile pacific and here we are.  Certainly smashing a record by that much is noteworthy, but the cards appeared to be stacked against them from the get go this December.

Farther east Dec 2015 smashed the warmth records in most places.  It's tops by 2.3° at my short-term records, but far more extreme at NYC.  That month was 11.4° above average and 6.7° milder than the 2nd mildest Dec (2001).  In fact, that 50.8° average was 2.5° above the 2001-30 norm for November.  They recorded 3 CDDs on 12/24 that year - AC on Christmas Eve?

[NW_of_GYX]

no expert here but seems like SSTs are cooling in the area of the W PAC where the lack of a gradient has been theorized for the strange ENSO response. 

Still warm but you can start to see the gradient appearing in the W PAC

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ya euro didn’t bite on Maine snow . Weaker look , more showery in nature and liquid 

[Boston Bulldog]

13 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

no expert here but seems like SSTs are cooling in the area of the W PAC where the lack of a gradient has been theorized for the strange ENSO response. 

Still warm but you can start to see the gradient appearing in the W PAC

Yes, the ridging from earlier this month has been supplanted by a series of cut off lows spinning off CA, which has helped to cool that region of SSTs recently. While not a one-for-one action/reaction, it's no surprise that the door is beginning to crack open for modestly sized storms to reach the Sierras as the end of the month and new year approaches.

Regardless, I fail to see these E-PAC changes registering as a major forcing for our neck of the woods, at least in the medium range.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Torch Tiger]

52 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

It just doesn't snow in SNE anymore. Clown map yes, SNE snow weenies bridge jumping also yes. 

 

wow wow wow.  previous runs have looked similar through week 2 as well

[CoastalWx]

32 so far for the high. 

[CoastalWx]

Still like guidance overall. EPS with a block north of AK and PV kissing Hudson Bay.

[SouthCoastMA]

34.3 for a high and current temp of 32.9

thats solidly BN here

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Whats funny is that 1969 has continually showed up as an objective analog on the ensembles. That year did have a huge turnaround that started with the Xmas night storm (though it wasn't good for a chunk of Maine because they got warm sectored)

Good analog...one of my favs from the composite.

[dendrite]

Hard pass on Jan 70…thanks. 5.0” at CON and 11.3F BN on the mean.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still like guidance overall. EPS with a block north of AK and PV kissing Hudson Bay.

Yep....can't rule out something pre-New Years either even on the EPS....not a high probability but some memebers are trying to form something with that rotating ULL.

But beyond that longshot, I think we'll have some chances in early January.

[greenmtnwx]

5 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Tetons and the Cottonwoods are the only good resort skiing in North America right now outside of Alyeska and the interior Canadian Rockies. Pretty brutal December for the Cascades and Coastal BC with extremely warm ARs bringing rain to the peaks and washing away snowpack. Sierras have been pretty high and dry so far, save for some warm cutoffs bringing some snow way up high (8-9k+), and mostly rain to the resorts.

The Northern Pacific is just so incredibly warm right now, outside of where the storms directing the ARs have been upwelling water southeast of Alaska. Mets more knowledgeable than me on this part of the world (Bryan Allegretto) have been attributing the lack of a strong PAC latitudinal SST gradient as one of the causes behind why the West Coast simply not getting the typical El Nino connection so far. Large scale ridging assisted by the warm pool has been directing moisture north of California, with no cold air around to tamp down snow levels when these features make landfall. When those warm ARs go away, cutoffs have been meandering just offshore and out of reach.

Moving into the new year it seems as though more windows will open, but the one lesson I've learned so far is no matter how strong an El Nino is in ONI, if you don't have that gradient in SST across the PAC throw away traditional ENSO climo for the West Coast. Synoptic fundamentals often win out, no matter how strong your subseasonal forcings are.

My son at school at Montana State University in Bozeman has reported that the locals say it’s one of the warmest falls and Decembers that they could ever imagine. Almost unfathomable, many days highs 20 to 30° above average. Bridger bowl is barely open and have essentially had no natural snow this year. On the flipside, the last two weekends he’s driven down to Jackson hole and grand Targhee to ski. He reported that Jackson hole was decent, in pretty good shape but that grand Targhee was exceptional. They’ve had close to 150 inches of snow so far and had 3 feet of powder when he was there. That place is just a snow magnet and almost as consistent as you could ever imagine. But as for big sky and his area of Montana, hideously warm and snowless to date. The president of Montana State university actually sent an email out to us saying that a lot of students were bummed about the start to the winter and hopefully it arrives soon, hang in there.

[jbenedet]

41 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

34.3 for a high and current temp of 32.9

thats solidly BN here

Someone got the AC on down there at the south shore. 
 

35 at PSM and PWM. No wind.

As normal as you get for the calendar.

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Whats funny is that 1969 has continually showed up as an objective analog on the ensembles. That year did have a huge turnaround that started with the Xmas night storm (though it wasn't good for a chunk of Maine because they got warm sectored)

That was a weird storm, though a nice one at our NNJ place - 8" with a thin ZR cap.  We used to listen to Roxy Rothefel's ski report back then.  No one in the family skiied but the north country wx was interesting.  For that event, the report was lots of RA in Maine/eastern NH, big ice for the rest of NH and huge SN in VT.  I later read of 30-foot drifts in the Greens.

Two straight sunny days in late Dec - not all that common.  The bare ground even less so.

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

My son at school at Montana State University in Bozeman has reported that the locals say it’s one of the warmest falls and Decembers that they could ever imagine. Almost unfathomable, many days highs 20 to 30° above average. Bridger bowl is barely open and have essentially had no natural snow this year. On the flipside, the last two weekends he’s driven down to Jackson hole and grand Targhee to ski. He reported that Jackson hole was decent, in pretty good shape but that grand Targhee was exceptional. They’ve had close to 150 inches of snow so far and had 3 feet of powder when he was there. That place is just a snow magnet and almost as consistent as you could ever imagine. But as for big sky and his area of Montana, hideously warm and snowless to date. The president of Montana State university actually sent an email out to us saying that a lot of students were bummed about the start to the winter and hopefully it arrives soon, hang in there.

Talked to a friend of mine today who usually spends the winter at his place in Big sky. Always leaves after Christmas. He's holding off this year because of how bad it is.

[ROOSTA]

I just came across the ECMWF website has expanded the charts with more variables on their HIRES models. Good stuff!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Someone got the AC on down there at the south shore. 
 

35 at PSM and PWM. No wind.

As normal as you get for the calendar.

PWM was slightly BN today… -2/-5/-3.5

CON 0/-5/-2.5

MHT -3/-3/-3
 

So near to slightly BN today. SNE seemed to have greater anomalies…closer to -5.

[tavwtby]

12.3 this morning was the coldest of the season so far, got up to 35 tho

[Typhoon Tip]

That oughta set up the mood around here good and proper ...  D.C. with a foot of snow in the first week of January

[Hailstoned]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Whats funny is that 1969 has continually showed up as an objective analog on the ensembles. That year did have a huge turnaround that started with the Xmas night storm (though it wasn't good for a chunk of Maine because they got warm sectored)

What's different is I remember on Christmas night 1969, walking out on a pond near Boston to observe conditions in advent of this major tempest. Back then it would have been shocking to have open waters so late in December... but now...

[Ginx snewx]

It's a new day it's a new dawn its a New Year

[NorEastermass128]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That oughta set up the mood around here good and proper ...  D.C. with a foot of snow in the first week of January

LBSW Ray Special

[brooklynwx99]

wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern 

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

It just doesn't snow in SNE anymore. Clown map yes, SNE snow weenies bridge jumping also yes. 

 

This is obviously wrong. It shows 0.2” at my house. That’s waaay too high. 

[butterfish55]

In laws who live in Cape Breton Nova Scotia woke up to 18"+ this morning. Been snowing most of the day. At least it's snowing somewhere kind of close

[bwt3650]

Cool shot of the mountain with a clear, star lit sky tonight..



.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Hailstoned said:

What's different is I remember on Christmas night 1969, walking out on a pond near Boston to observe conditions in advent of this major tempest. Back then it would have been shocking to have open waters so late in December... but now...

I grew up 17 mi southwest of Boston. In grade school we would bring our hockey sticks and skates to school. We would swap off every week which pond we would play on. Get the bus driver to drop us off at the pond. 1970 I think we played everyday but three in December. I just looked it up It was 6.8° below normal that year in December. In 68 and 69 we played almost the whole month.

[WeatherX]

This is obviously wrong. It shows 0.2” at my house. That’s waaay too high. 

If the 2009-2010 pattern becomes more apparent and real as we close in, you simply travel to get your fix. Did it in Feb 2010 drove to a diner in Nyack waiting for the changeover and then chased it driving home. Hopefully we won’t see that sharp cutoff scenario again this winter.


.

[kdxken]

Anybody use this website? Seems a lot easier than threadex and I'm guessing it's the same data.

 

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/