December 2023

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Last year it was the same, and in 2020 the same. And in 2019 too. Decembers can be very fickle there. 2021 I went on the 26th, but it was lean.  And it’s been back and forth like that for the25 yrs I’ve been going sledding just after Xmas.  2016, 17, and 18 they had the snow the day after Xmas.  But it’s a some yrs yes, and some no. 

I'll give you 2020, as the mega-Grinch took the co-op down to zippo.  All those other years they had 2"+ and 14", 18" for '16 and '17, respectively.  The Christmas snow in 2017 only brought 2" but they had gotten 8" on the 23rd.  (Their data has it on the 24th but their obs time is 7 AM.  CAR shows that snow on 12/23.)  '19, '21 were likely scratchy, especially in town and along the St. John, probably better above 1000'.  Worth noting that the Outdoor Center is more than 400' higher than the co-op site, and seeing nothing but a few scattered patches on a north slope speaks loudly.
Nearest cocorahs obs is PQI and they reported zero pack this morning.  

[MJO812]

Sick negative epo on the gfs towards the 1st week of January. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I think having separate threads for Pattern and Models probably helped limit some of the shtshow - in general, not just those months.

The thread has become a chat room with a continuous flow of consciousness. I've been relaxed with the moderating while the pattern has sucked, but planned to crack down some when things improve and we start tracking actual threats.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hmm interesting changes in the GGEM and GFS (oper.) for the 29th/30th

It ain't over folks.  The debate on whether that interval can turn colder isn't settled yet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are there any resorts or trails open anywhere in NE or are they all totally shut em down? 

Wachusett is currently making snow and has "11" trails open

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'll give you 2020, as the mega-Grinch took the co-op down to zippo.  All those other years they had 2"+ and 14", 18" for '16 and '17, respectively.  The Christmas snow in 2017 only brought 2" but they had gotten 8" on the 23rd.  (Their data has it on the 24th but their obs time is 7 AM.  CAR shows that snow on 12/23.)  '19, '21 were likely scratchy, especially in town and along the St. John, probably better above 1000'.  Worth noting that the Outdoor Center is more than 400' higher than the co-op site, and seeing nothing but a few scattered patches on a north slope speaks loudly.
Nearest cocorahs obs is PQI and they reported zero pack this morning.  

Ok Tom..crusty two inches, or patchy ice…splitting hairs.  I have the good years documented and the ones where it was bad too. Cant sled or ski on an inch or two of crust I guess is my point.  But it’s all good. 
 

Rode in 21…was lean though..but then they picked up 4-6”’ a day or two later and it made things much better. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

It's cool. But def unnerving. I tie my dog on at night - these howlers sound big as if they wouldn't have a hard time taking down a 50 lb dog. These guys are hunting deer; not scavenging the local trash. I'm adapting accordingly.

Common around here just a few miles SW of Boston.  One night I was walking when our beloved doggy was still alive and well and thankfully she wasn't with me.  I saw a large coydog right in front of our house.   When it saw me it scampered into the woods.  From that point on-she was on leash at night except ironically in the winter when you usually wouldn't see/hear them.  This year I guess given how mild and snowless it is they're out. Within the past year, my wife and I were walking literally across the street from Allandale Farms and you could hear a pack of coyotes howling.  Kind of blood curdling and made us think they had caught a decent sized animal and were feasting.  Coyotes all over New England have become quite common.

[SJonesWX]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I would say we had by far the best start to the season since 2018’s record November.  It all got completely reset though.  Theres still snow too… its just that it’s all a block of ice.

If we got a foot of snow, the snowpack is still there to open natural snow terrain.  But we are in a holding pattern now.

The irony is that the official record will show the Stake depth is just back to normal now .

But there's still "snow", just in the form of a glacial ice pack.  Luckily wasn't a true total melt out.

just shut 'em down. not enough snow. 

[cut]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Common around here just a few miles SW of Boston.  One night I was walking when our beloved doggy was still alive and well and thankfully she wasn't with me.  I saw a large coydog right in front of our house.   When it saw me it scampered into the woods.  From that point on-she was on leash at night except ironically in the winter when you usually wouldn't see/hear them.  This year I guess given how mild and snowless it is they're out. Within the past year, my wife and I were walking literally across the street from Allandale Farms and you could hear a pack of coyotes howling.  Kind of blood curdling and made us think they had caught a decent sized animal and were feasting.  Coyotes all over New England have become quite common.

we had a howling pack living (I think) in a patch of woods just above back yard. Whenever an ambulance or siren went by they would howl - it was kind of funny actually.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I know this is a controversial topic, on the order of politics and religion around here...But thinking of these as coyotes is set up to get surprised in a bad way on your home turf.

Seems much smarter to have in your head that these are small wolves, and adapt to that. 

For one I cant see a coyote taking down deer; especially the large ones around here. A small wolf, sure...Sounds alarmist, but better mindset.

And how do i know they're hunting deer? There's nothing else to eat, especially not on order to sustain a pack of animals that size. Deer has to be #1 on the menu this time of year.

Coyote "packs" are usually just nuclear family groups, unlike wolves which often have multi-generations and packs far larger than the coyotes.  Studies in northern Maine showed that deer are the major food only in late winter into spring, and a good portion of that diet is carrion, especially right after snowmelt.  Snowshoe hare was tops in the summer (and in 2nd place at all other seasons), fruits/nuts tops in autumn.  Coyotes are the classic opportunists, rarely taking adult deer without benefit of deep snow, but it can happen.  Back when I lived in Fort Kent (76-85), coyote researchers in July saw from the air 3 adult coyotes just beginning to pull off skin from a big buck lying in Five Mile Brook, a shallow stony watercourse 30-40 feet wide.  By the time they reached the site, only a half-eaten deer remained, with no pre-attack damage noted.  They found coyote tracks up and down both sides of the brook and guessed that the predators happened upon the deer crossing the brook and chased it up and down the bad footing until it tripped.
 

That table of Fort Kent snow depth on 12/21 doesn't agree with the data for the co-op that I've downloaded from Climod.  For instance, 12/21/21 is shown with 5" at the co-op, not one.  Maybe a different site in town?  Though the co-op is at the water company right next to the Fish River, only a few feet higher than the St. John.

[WinterWolf]

This is 2020…in Allagash Maine…this was what I meant, when I said this crazy crap happens. 

[WxWatcher007]

Still below 30° here. Good cold day. 

[ORH_wxman]

There are some interesting GEFS members in there too

 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are some interesting GEFS members in there too

 

e4 please

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

e4 please

Yes please and thank you. 

[cut]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are some interesting GEFS members in there too

 

I'll take e4 for 100 please.

[jbenedet]

Currently 35 at Portsmouth.

 

Average high for the date at Portsmouth NH: 36

 

Fake cold.

[Go Kart Mozart]

28 minutes ago, cut said:

we had a howling pack living (I think) in a patch of woods just above back yard. Whenever an ambulance or siren went by they would howl - it was kind of funny actually.

Yup, my wife and son were walking the dogs a couple of weeks ago in the woods at the end of Valley View, when they came upon a half-eviscerated, sizeable buck.  One of the dogs was very edgy, so they probably hadn't gone far.

[dendrite]

I see 31° at the airport as of noon. Maybe 33ish now? But whatev. No one said it was brutal. We were being snarky considering how warm it’s been. The teens felt like subzero after the dews we just had. Sun plus WAA today takes the edge off too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are some interesting GEFS members in there too

 

This is a different look compared to prior spreads... The 2 meter 0C isotherm splits the area in half during this means/interval below, too.  That's also cooling the column while both surface and aloft collascing on a climate position.  Also take not of the 500 mb height changes? 

It's a situation still in flux to me.  The erstwhile +d(PNA) appears to be exerting on the continental super structure in having more weight over the western ridge aspect.  This actually helps colder solutions for a couple of reasons -

[WxWatcher007]

FWIW it’s not fake here, so far this is my coldest day since February. Sitting at 30.3° at 1pm is hard here these days lol. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW it’s not fake here, so far this is my coldest day since February. Sitting at 30.3° at 1pm is hard here these days lol. 

Ya, it’s not warming up to fast out there today. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW it’s not fake here, so far this is my coldest day since February. Sitting at 30.3° at 1pm is hard here these days lol. 

I get the sentiment but ... in this case, I think it's a little out of line.   Sub 540 dm hydrostats with NW flow preceding and DPs between 12 and 19 the previous afternoon is a legit deep winter air mass.

It's just not bone chilling cold or whatever.  But it is real and deep and cold.   

 

[dryslot]

Roughly, 19/30 panels have snow.

[beavis1729]

Adding to the debate on how bad this December has been relative to other clunkers:  It hasn't necessarily been the worst December in every single area (for example, it's been horrendous IMBY...but with very few extremely mild days, it won't be record warmest).  Just constantly above average, day after day after day...which is just as bad. 

With that said, the lack of snow and cold on average across the entire CONUS has been shocking, way worse than I've ever seen in any December.

One anecdotal data point:  INL's record warmest December is 22.8F in 1913 (records go back to 1906).  As it looks now, December 2023 will obliterate that.  Through Dec. 21st, the average has been 25.9F.  While it may cool down towards the very end of the month, the 25.9F average will go even higher over the next 5-7 days.  Breaking a monthly record by 3-4 degrees on a POR of 117 years is noteworthy.  And INL has only had 2.9" of snow since Nov. 12th, with no snow cover on most of those days...just horrible.  This is the icebox of the nation, around 49N in the Midwest.  

Our annual mid-January snowmobiling trip to northern WI is in jeopardy - just no snow to be found anywhere.  Usually, their snowmobiling season starts in mid-December.  Places with a nearly 100% chance of a White Christmas won't be seeing one this year.

[DJln491]

Euro didn’t bite

 

[NW_of_GYX]

It just doesn't snow in SNE anymore. Clown map yes, SNE snow weenies bridge jumping also yes. 

 

[radarman]

Dec 2015 was the second warmest on record at INL (soon to be 3rd).  Also featured well BN snows.  Figure some additional amount of climate warming, plus the (solar max related?) AO spike the last 2+ weeks, with a particularly hostile pacific and here we are.  Certainly smashing a record by that much is noteworthy, but the cards appeared to be stacked against them from the get go this December.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

This is 2020…in Allagash Maine…this was what I meant, when I said this crazy crap happens. 

2020 is the near twin of this year, but worse because the Grinch arrived on 12/25, but less damaging as wind wasn't much of an issue inland.  Also, that was 1-3" RA rather than 4-6".  Almost no one lost power in the 2020 event, but we're still on genny, about 4 hours beyond our outage in Jan 1998.  Only the 6-day dark from the Jan 1953 ice storm in the hills west/north from NYC was longer.

[radarman]

11 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Euro didn’t bite

7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

It just doesn't snow in SNE anymore. Clown map yes, SNE snow weenies bridge jumping also yes.

The sooner SNE folks toss December and embrace AOB temps to kick off Jan... ignore clown maps and track the possible developing -EPO ridge with signs of split flow and an STJ... the better for all.