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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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42 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's funny, none of the Mets in our area are biting on a wintry solution. But one of them did mention there's a possibility of a mix, but right now saying that one system looks like it's going to go to the north and one to the south of us. They don't want to talk about any possibilities of snow until it's a definite. Here's to hoping, but we'll have other opportunities. I'm sure. It's still very early

No one knows yet. If we get a wound up system interior CT will snow. If the high keeps nosing and pressing even a lighter event could happen . My guess if it happens in SNE .. it will be an elevation event.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s close to something big on GFS for 12/6. Meanwhile, the Canadian actually likes 12/5 for SNE. Models still trying to figure out the shortwave mess. 

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic. 

Fwiw, I’d root for more of a GFS look as I think it’s a much tougher lift to get any part of that 12/4-5 impulse as significant snow in SNE. 
 

It’s probably better to use that system to drive down a better antecedent airmass in its wake and set the stage for the follow up wave to amplify into that airmass. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic. 

The wave interference has been negative in the guidance for the 3rd thru the 9th of the month, which includes the 4th thru the 6th ( still imho the better period of interest), all along. 

The period is there but it may take a nearer term to sort out a dominant wave structure/wave space ... -OR, yes it is also true that the period could come and go as a dispersive failure. That happens too.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, I’d root for more of a GFS look as I think it’s a much tougher lift to get any part of that 12/4-5 impulse as significant snow in SNE. 
 

It’s probably better to use that system to drive down a better antecedent airmass in its wake and set the stage for the follow up wave to amplify into that airmass. 

Agreed, was just thinking that to myself. Use that first system to sort of lay the framework for the second system. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The wave interference has been negative in the guidance for the 3rd thru the 9th of the month, which includes the 4th thru the 6th ( still imho the better period of interest), all along. 

The period is there but it may take a nearer term to sort out a dominant wave structure/wave space ... -OR, yes it is also true that the period could come and go as a dispersive failure. That happens too.

The type of setup where we may not have a great idea until just 2-3 days out. This is definitely a setup where you want to pay close attention to the upper-levels and not just focus on MSLP charts. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

IMG_9749.png.bab93212aee1441844355ce6d6470779.pngIMG_9750.png.d90d5d602a104416fd74e0698279f979.png

 

Normally we’d be pumped at a 126-132 solution on the euro but this thing  has been changing every run so it’s prob gonna be a couple more cycles before confidence is high  

 

Yeah, some members are like this while others focus later in week. Hopefully it means we have a couple of opportunities and maybe get something.

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