December 2023

[UnitedWx]

44 minutes ago, George001 said:

Not seeing cold air on the long range guidance. Even in the very long range the BN anomalies are confined to the south. NNE is AN. 

Huh? Well... George is getting frustrated

[Typhoon Tip]

It makes me grin a little at one corner of the mouth when read the content in here sometimes.  Little like post mortem emotional recovery.  This is the "bargaining" phase.   lol

The other aspect ( other than that 5th grade approach) it seems there's a lack of imagination?  I mean "appropriate imagination"  Anyone can imagine a 13 isobar black hole parked 20 min SE of Block Island.  We mean imagining ways that could manifest and turn things for the better. 

It's a not a knock. Not everyone can envision those 'plausible' changes ...  There are times when I'm looking over the product suites and think, 'Yeah but this is really not as bad as all that because x-y-z'    Come here and the 'Book Of Eli' would be a utopian alternative.   It's like, on the charts or its the tragedy of a flopping 6-year old told the word no. 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, but based on what I’m seeing my opinion is that we are going to be fighting temps for most of this winter. Borderline super nino, strong -PDO, roaring pacific jet, and record low snow cover for our source regions. The Pope brought this up multiple times, but people keep ignoring it. Instead of ignoring him, I am choosing to read and learn from his posts. He knows his shit, and he’s usually right. 

the 500mb pattern trumps things like snow cover. it's more of an enhancer of cold air that's getting funneled in. this year, the cold air that's moving in won't be as cold as it usually is. however, when the 500mb pattern is good like the one coming up, it's not that big of a deal

like the snow cover over Canada won't matter if you're getting flow out of the Arctic. it's just not that much of a pattern driver

same with the -PDO. the PDO is more of a constructive or destructive interferer. it won't have a massive impact on an ongoing pattern

[rehjr]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, but based on what I’m seeing my opinion is that we are going to be fighting temps for most of this winter. Borderline super nino, strong -PDO, roaring pacific jet, and record low snow cover for our source regions. The Pope brought this up multiple times, but people keep ignoring it. Instead of ignoring him, I am choosing to read and learn from his posts. He knows his shit, and he’s usually right. 

You can tell what temps are going to be in January, February and March on December 21st?? 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

how are they doing thus far compared to last yr?

This year to last year

2023 (through 12.21.23)

2022 (Through 12.21.22)

[brooklynwx99]

also, for like the millionth time, northern Canada can be +10 and it won't really matter for us since their normals are so much lower. it's always warm in Canada during Ninos, even in prolific periods

[dryslot]

29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Any feelings of despair I have over lack of snow this winter will be tempered by the upcoming first season with my new toy.

 

Nice Mike, Congrats, That will bode very well heading up or down the Kennebec, Looks like moving to Maine is sooner rather then later.

[rehjr]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

also, for like the millionth time, northern Canada can be +10 and it won't really matter for us since their normals are so much lower. it's always warm in Canada during Ninos, even in prolific periods

Some people are just unreachable. They are miserable so they try to make everyone else miserable too. I really wonder why some keep posting since Canada's warm. No snow anywhere. Ignore the long range guidance they say because they KNOW!!! 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro regressed for NNE next week . 1.25 liquid . Not a worst case fire hose thou 

I really want to see a snower sneak in for NNE mtns with that 

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL.  I just made the first payment so that day is now in the past. 

No more worries of outages with the generator all wired!

It keeps going, Bring On AnotherThousand is what boat stands for.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Good ol AGW denying Wolfie calling people dummies. Pot calling the kettle black much?

So you think that AGW is causing no snow this December?  Lmao!!!  What was it when we had good Decembers?  What was it when we had bad Decembers 20 yrs ago? 50’yrs ago? Stay in your own silly world.  Sometimes things just don’t work out…for a myriad of reasons.   
 

Things are looking up as we go along…if they flop, you can have the credit that you were right. 

[rehjr]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So you think that AGW is causing no snow this December?  Lmao!!!  What was it when we had good Decembers?  What was it when we had bad Decembers 20 yrs ago? 50’yrs ago? Stay in your own silly world.  Sometimes things just don’t work out…for a myriad of reasons.   
 

Things are looking up as we go along…if they flop, you can have the credit that you were right. 

Congrats he mentioned you in a post in the NYC city thread. Called out you and I on a post I made. If he believes in AGW why in the hell did he predict one blizzard after another  last winter for Boston? Called for 100”. He’s living proof anyone can be brainwashed into believing anything. 

[DavisStraight]

24 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Huh? Well... George is getting frustrated

George likes his chicken spicy!

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, rehjr said:

Congrats he mentioned you in a post in the NYC city thread. Called out you and I on a post I made. If he believes in AGW why in the hell did he predict one blizzard after another  last winter for Boston? Called for 100”. He’s living proof anyone can be brainwashed into believing anything. 

As I said….some are just dumb! 

[George001]

8 minutes ago, rehjr said:

You can tell what temps are going to be in January, February and March on December 21st?? 

Assuming Dec finished +3 AN (which is conservative), if J-M averages -1 BN that takes us to average for Dec-Mar. I don’t need any actual knowledge of meteorology to predict that this winter will finish AN, it’s basic math. Even the more optimistic posters like Brooklyn and Ray understand and acknowledge this. Assuming an equal probability of AN/BN (again this is conservative, as it doesn’t take AGW, and the strong El Niño into account), an average rest of winter will finish AN due to how warm December will end up being. 

[DavisStraight]

47 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Any feelings of despair I have over lack of snow this winter will be tempered by the upcoming first season with my new toy.

 

Great looking boat, I spend a lot of time in Maine in the summer, I'll give you a call, we can go out for stripers 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS looked pretty good to me. Seems like things are proceeding. 

[Torch Tiger]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

Good ol AGW denying Wolfie calling people dummies. Pot calling the kettle black much?

Let 'em go

[tamarack]

44 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not denying that we can get snow. It absolutely can snow with AN temp anomalies in New England, but you aren’t building a snowpack with this post 2015 temp profile. 

It certainly lowers the odds, even for NNE, but last January bucked the trend, with our mildest Jan of 26 (9° AN), 29.9" SN and the 8" on 1/1 became 22" by 1/31.  Of course, when we got 12" early this month, I thought we'd keep pack into late March or April.  6.5" RA took care of that.

[weatherwiz]

Everything is going to plan and how several have envisioned things would progress. Nothing has been pushed back or delayed. Fantasy has bled into reality from all the wishcasting for a White Christmas. 

[rehjr]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t need any actual knowledge of meteorology

Admitting the problem is the first step to recovery 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you think that AGW is causing no snow this December?  Lmao!!!  What was it when we had good Decembers?  What was it when we had bad Decembers 20 yrs ago? 50’yrs ago? Stay in your own silly world.  Sometimes things just don’t work out…for a myriad of reasons.   
 

Things are looking up as we go along…if they flop, you can have the credit that you were right. 

I mean it’s a driver (especially given the well AN ocean temps), but is it the main reason why I’m not getting snow this December? No. I’m not getting snow because I live on the coastal plain and our climo sucks in December and it’s a borderline super nino. The +10 anomalies in Canada? It’s one of many drivers. Honestly I would say AGW was a bigger culprit last December. This is just a classic Nino December, and strong nino Decembers tend to suck. 8 consecutive AN winters though? Yeah, that’s AGW related.

[ORH_wxman]

Close call for 12/31 on euro. 

[weatherwiz]

This December is easily going to finish well above-average in the Northeast and across the country. The West will take a hit later this weekend and early next weekend a bit but I would have to think this will end up being the warmest December on record. 

These anomalies are only going to increase next week

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Close call for 12/31 on euro. 

Was it 2008 or 2009 we had that clipper on NYE that ended up being an overperformer...didn't it come on the brink of a pattern change too. Maybe that can happen again this year.

[Typhoon Tip]

`Correction vector' is pointed toward more amplitude between ...really Xmas and Jan 3 ..4

What's going on in both the operational Euro and GFS is a 4 or 5 day maelstrom of negative wave interference.  I've lost count how many S/W jet torpedoes in that whirling mess that would have enough to get a winter shot in here. 

I think we should bide time on the whole period.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

`Correction vector' is pointed toward more amplitude between ...really the Xmas and Jan 3 ..4

What's going on in both the operational Euro and GFS is 4 or 5 day maelstrom of negative wave interference.  I've lost count how many S/W jet torpedoes in that whirling mess that would have enough to get a winter shot in here. 

I think we should bide time on the whole period.

this looks fun lmao

[weatherwiz]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this looks fun lmao

If this was Monopoly and we drew that as a chance card it would read, "Ride the Wave Train to snowier times. If you pass go, take your trolling ass out of here" 

[tamarack]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

I mean it’s a driver (especially given the well AN ocean temps), but is it the main reason why I’m not getting snow this December? No. I’m not getting snow because I live on the coastal plain and our climo sucks in December and it’s a borderline super nino. The +10 anomalies in Canada? It’s one of many drivers. Honestly I would say AGW was a bigger culprit last December. This is just a classic Nino December, and strong nino Decembers tend to suck. 8 consecutive AN winters though? Yeah, that’s AGW related.

Only a short (May 17, 1998 on) POR here, but we've done better than that - temps as compared to the entire 26 DJFs.   Average for those 8 winters is +1.6, fitting a warming climate, but 16-17 (-1.9), 17-18 (-2.6) and 21-22 (-0.3) prevented a shutout.

[George001]

27 minutes ago, rehjr said:

Admitting the problem is the first step to recovery 

I mean yeah, if I had more knowledge of meteorology that would certainly help, I’m not denying that. That is why I choose to read and learn from people who know a lot more than I do such as the Pope, Bluewave, Raindance etc. Hell I’m willing to keep and open mind and listen to those who I disagree with but acknowledge know their shit better than I do. You want to listen to someone who understands meteorology rather than a hobbyist who’s still lacking in that area? That’s completely fair, but most of the forecasts I have seen are for an AN temp winter.