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December 2023


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I think everything is progressing nearly on schedule. I know Ray and I shared a lot of the same thoughts in our winter outlooks how we would see pattern evolution moving through December into January and everything seems to be on par. Everything seems to be progressing how you'd expect for a typical EL Nino, especially a stronger EL Nino. While our luck certainly isn't the best with stronger EL Nino's, we have had success with stronger episodes. But you can see that we're moving towards the emergence of the Aleutian Low. It also appears we should head into the direction of developing blocking. Everything is happening slow, but things are changing.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I guess maybe fantasy storms put weenies in their footie pajamas....until those get taken from them?? I didn't see much wrong on the GFS. Next week probably sucks and has looked that way for awhile.

Pattern looks good, who cares about a jackpot at hour 384.. We wait on the Gorilla and hope for the best.. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I guess maybe fantasy storms put weenies in their footie pajamas....until those get taken from them?? I didn't see much wrong on the GFS. Next week probably sucks and has looked that way for awhile.

People want to see blizzards on OP runs at D12...if there is nothing being shown it's just winter cancel

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I guess maybe fantasy storms put weenies in their footie pajamas....until those get taken from them?? I didn't see much wrong on the GFS. Next week probably sucks and has looked that way for awhile.

Still a large difference in some guidance for next week...esp in NNE....Canadian is quite icy for them while GFS is a torch. We'll have to see which way the Euro breaks today.

 

But agreed on longer range GFS....that's a nice looking pattern overall, decent cold around and hopefully one of those many shortwaves can line up correctly for us.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a large difference in some guidance for next week...esp in NNE....Canadian is quite icy for them while GFS is a torch. We'll have to see which way the Euro breaks today.

 

But agreed on longer range GFS....that's a nice looking pattern overall, decent cold around and hopefully one of those many shortwaves can line up correctly for us.

I think the GFS is being a bit too aggressive with the warmth that far north but it's certainly possible that could happen.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It was delayed a week or so. But, the south did trend a lot cooler....we just didn't really get a polar airmass. 

Nope don’t want to hear anything about it being “delayed”. Either it’s going to happen or it isn’t. If it doesn’t happen when we expected, instead of moving the goalposts it makes sense to just give up and admit to being wrong. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Kev is gonna go into the reverse psych mode now…you can see it coming.  
 

Ironically things after Xmas week look pretty decent Actually, so I don’t get the angst at the moment?  

Not seeing cold air on the long range guidance. Even in the very long range the BN anomalies are confined to the south. NNE is AN. 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a large difference in some guidance for next week...esp in NNE....Canadian is quite icy for them while GFS is a torch. We'll have to see which way the Euro breaks today.

 

But agreed on longer range GFS....that's a nice looking pattern overall, decent cold around and hopefully one of those many shortwaves can line up correctly for us.

But yet we still have the same ingenuous people just constantly saying rinse and repeat..with persistence forecasting.  When that is certainly not the case as we look forward.  Nobody can guarantee anything, and sure, maybe we strike out again in a good pattern, that’s always possible. But it’s not the same, and it’s not rinse and repeat.  It’s Trolling plain and simple.  And it’s a shame. 

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