December 2023

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Better hope you capitalize. Everything looks like garbage after. 

Pacific looks horrible 

We’ve heard this more than twice already, from you and couple others.  T Giving and Beginning of December was supposed to be a torch if we go back to your posts from a couple weeks ago. Long range has changed twice on you.
 

Please…take your crap back to Jersey, where it belongs. 

[ORH_wxman]

We might have a short period of torching mid-month if EPS is correct…but even if that happens, all evidence points to a nice reloading of a +PNA pattern by the final 10 days of the month. 
 

I noticed guidance is really uncertain about that Dec 10-15 period. That’s where it could go torch for a time, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if it was not that warm and near normal instead. It all depends on what the NAO does and if we also get any temporary blockiness in Canada instead of a well-phased ridge which would produce a warmer outcome here. 

[bwt3650]

Better hope you capitalize. Everything looks like garbage after. 
Pacific looks horrible 

There’s no need to bump your late October posts..I think everyone remembers.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We might have a short period of torching mid-month if EPS is correct…but even if that happens, all evidence points to a nice reloading of a +PNA pattern by the final 10 days of the month. 
 

I noticed guidance is really uncertain about that Dec 10-15 period. That’s where it could go torch for a time, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if it was not that warm and near normal instead. It all depends on what the NAO does and if we also get any temporary blockiness in Canada instead of a well-phased ridge which would produce a warmer outcome here. 

Agreed, bold.

Not sure about the other aspects you're describing - I've kept my observations more orbital. But the former aspects, I covered that in post yesterday.  Interesting statements from the MJO desk lend credence to +PNA. At long last  ... finally an MJO wave that is actually forecast to move into a constructive interference wave spacing by mid month . 

I would not be surprised if that was led by a -EPO burst; the projections on that are so far so-so and vague for now

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed, bold.

Not sure about the other aspects you're describing - I've kept my observations more orbital. But the former aspects, I covered that in post yesterday.  Interesting statements from the MJO desk lend credence to +PNA. At long last  ... finally an MJO wave that is actually forecast to move into a constructive interference wave spacing by mid month . 

I would not be surprised if that was led by a -EPO burst; the projections on that are so far so-so and vague for now

Yeah the mid-month pattern is really diffuse on guidance right now...like take a look at the EPS at the end of the run....maybe a -EPO hint forming there (preceded by -WPO burst?) prior to any PNA spike further down the road?

 

Hard to say....but the notable part is just how tepid the anomalies are...that usually is a signal that theres probably a lot of disagreement amongst the ensemble members.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We might have a short period of torching mid-month if EPS is correct…but even if that happens, all evidence points to a nice reloading of a +PNA pattern by the final 10 days of the month. 
 

I noticed guidance is really uncertain about that Dec 10-15 period. That’s where it could go torch for a time, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if it was not that warm and near normal instead. It all depends on what the NAO does and if we also get any temporary blockiness in Canada instead of a well-phased ridge which would produce a warmer outcome here. 

Wankum displayed an image of the 8-14 day anomaly map from the CPC, which had reds over the mid section of the country and said something to the effect of "this looks poised to move over our area thereafter, so a white xmas looks doubtful". 

I swear these guys get too comfy and complacent in addition to being conditioned to over simplify everything, which fosters bad habits.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wankum displayed an image of the 8-14 day anomaly map from the CPC, which had reds over the mid section of the country and said something to the effect of "this looks poised to move over our area thereafter, so a white xmas looks doubtful". 

I swear these guys get too comfy and complacent in addition to being conditioned to over simplify everything, which fosters bad habits.

Wankum said that? He would. 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a wanker. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the mid-month pattern is really diffuse on guidance right now...like take a look at the EPS at the end of the run....maybe a -EPO hint forming there (preceded by -WPO burst?) prior to any PNA spike further down the road?

 

Hard to say....but the notable part is just how tepid the anomalies are...that usually is a signal that theres probably a lot of disagreement amongst the ensemble members.

 

 

I’m leaning after 18-20 for something workable around here I think. Doesn’t mean we are shut out, but that’s where I feel more comfortable.

[CoastalWx]

I’d still watch next week too, especially  interior. I just peaked at some EPS clusters and there’s definitely some wintry members. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wankum said that? He would. 

Yup.

Something about him irks me....every weather system, whether its an airmass or a storm, is "moving over the top of us"....listen to that tool bag.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m leaning after 18-20 for something workable around here I think. Doesn’t mean we are shut out, but that’s where I feel more comfortable.

Yes, exact same page...I have been saying Xmas week...not that it isn't serviceable before, but I wouldn't advise holding by breath during a "serviceable" pattern on the heels of an ugly one...at least not on the SNE CP, anyway.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, exact same page...I have been saying Xmas week.

Obviously N and W of the metro area have a better shot. Just speaking more around BOS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously N and W of the metro area have a better shot. Just speaking more around BOS.

Yea, I added to it....get outta my head.

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously N and W of the metro area have a better shot. Just speaking more around BOS.

Is there a reasonably defined or understood area that delineates the Southern New England Coastal Plain?  Is it basically Boston south?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is there a reasonably defined or understood area that delineates the Southern New England Coastal Plain?  Is it basically Boston south?

East of the ORH hills is the CP....or in cruder terms, east of the western I 495 belt.

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup.

Something about him irks me....every weather system, whether its an airmass or a storm, is "moving over the top of us"....listen to that tool bag.

He generally downplays everything and plays it safe for the 80 year old demo that watches. He's extremely boring

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is there a reasonably defined or understood area that delineates the Southern New England Coastal Plain?  Is it basically Boston south?

Prob draw a line from about Haverhill to SE CT and then back along the south coast.....roughly SE of the line I drew below

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob draw a line from about Haverhill to SE CT and then back along the south coast.....roughly SE of the line I drew below

Yea, definitely just beyond me and SW to just beyond Lowell is about the extent to the CP...once you get past Lowell and my spot in east Methuen, the marine influence dies a quick death.

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the mid-month pattern is really diffuse on guidance right now...like take a look at the EPS at the end of the run....maybe a -EPO hint forming there (preceded by -WPO burst?) prior to any PNA spike further down the road?

 

Hard to say....but the notable part is just how tepid the anomalies are...that usually is a signal that theres probably a lot of disagreement amongst the ensemble members.

 

 

 

I suspect so...

You know, something I've noticed in the past, not 'reliable' per se but, as the noise of the mid range washes out ... sometimes the extended reveals a 'canvas' so to speak.

It could be early detection making that layout and as the time nears and the physics get more detectable (objectively..) - that's why the EPO "bursts"  ...WPO and NAO for that matter

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, definitely just beyond me and SW to just beyond Lowell is about the extent to the CP...once you get past Lowell and my spot in east Methuen, the marine influence dies a quick death.

Are you about 20 miles from the coast as the crow flies?  I'm about 8-10 miles from the coast depending on which direction you're facing and maybe 25 miles north of your latitude.  I'm assuming being closer to the coast has more of an affect than latitude in this area...?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Layman said:

Are you about 20 miles from the coast as the crow flies?  I'm about 8-10 miles from the coast depending on which direction you're facing and maybe 25 miles north of your latitude.  I'm assuming being closer to the coast has more of an affect than latitude in this area...?

As you go further north the marine influence generally is less in coastal storms. Once you get to your latitude the coastal fronts are pinned much closer to the coast. Obviously every situation is different, but many times cstl fronts stay near 95 near your latitude and north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

Are you about 20 miles from the coast as the crow flies?  I'm about 8-10 miles from the coast depending on which direction you're facing and maybe 25 miles north of your latitude.  I'm assuming being closer to the coast has more of an affect than latitude in this area...?

Yea, 15-20 probably. You only need to be about 10mi back from the ocean in NH because of the angle of the coast...NE winds tend to come off of ME more than the GOM.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wankum displayed an image of the 8-14 day anomaly map from the CPC, which had reds over the mid section of the country and said something to the effect of "this looks poised to move over our area thereafter, so a white xmas looks doubtful". 

I swear these guys get too comfy and complacent in addition to being conditioned to over simplify everything, which fosters bad habits.

And that reductive tendency has actually got a motivation to doom-cast against the hopes and dreams of anything resembling optimism.   I've pretty much just come to factor in and figure for a 30% 'not as bad as all that' ness, in order to vet the kernels of objective outlook.

[Damage In Tolland]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d still watch next week too, especially  interior. I just peaked at some EPS clusters and there’s definitely some wintry members. 

The net gain EPS snow output next week is interesting even in this area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The net gain EPS snow output next week is interesting even in this area 

It backed off from yesterday...has me at like an inch now, as opposed to 3-4".

[Layman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As you go further north the marine influence generally is less in coastal storms. Once you get to your latitude the coastal fronts are pinned much closer to the coast. Obviously every situation is different, but many times cstl fronts stay near 95 near your latitude and north. 

Is that generally good or bad?  

In 2015 we got dumped on over and over again like most everyone and piled up the snow.  Past 2-3 winters we've been on the rain/snow line consistently.  So much so that it will be raining at the house and a mile and half west toward town it's snowing and sticking.  One particular storm last year had the house at 0" accumulation but there was 4-6" 3 miles away.  I figured warm waters in the bay may have contributed to that but that's just a guess.  

 

Edit:  @40/70 Benchmark gave a clear answer on that - thanks

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is that generally good or bad?  

In 2015 we got dumped on over and over again like most everyone and piled up the snow.  Past 2-3 winters we've been on the rain/snow line consistently.  So much so that it will be raining at the house and a mile and half west toward town it's snowing and sticking.  One particular storm last year had the house at 0" accumulation but there was 4-6" 3 miles away.  I figured warm waters in the bay may have contributed to that but that's just a guess.  

 

Edit:  @40/70 Benchmark gave a clear answer on that - thanks

You seem like you are about where I am in terms of proximity to the marine layer....as in obnoxious marine influence ends at the fence of your adjacent western neighbor.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is that generally good or bad?  

In 2015 we got dumped on over and over again like most everyone and piled up the snow.  Past 2-3 winters we've been on the rain/snow line consistently.  So much so that it will be raining at the house and a mile and half west toward town it's snowing and sticking.  One particular storm last year had the house at 0" accumulation but there was 4-6" 3 miles away.  I figured warm waters in the bay may have contributed to that but that's just a guess.  

 

Edit:  @40/70 Benchmark gave a clear answer on that - thanks

Last year was also the winter of retreating highs. That helps the marine air penetrate further inland. A decent high position would have resulted in much different weather where you are. 

 

We have friends that live in Exeter, but formerly Epping. I recall one time back in 2013 right when I got to 101 there was just a semblance of frozen translucent crust. As I looked west on 101 from that spot, I could see the snow cover maybe 2 miles away. So I know what you mean with the sharp gradients. 

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS reminds me of Schwoegler backlash talk. That low wants to scoot out, but another s/w is diving into the trough and keeping the low hanging back. Kind of like that youtube clip I like to post of him back in December '95 talking about another piece of energy coming down and reinvigorating the precip.