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December 2023

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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moneypitmike
moneypitmike

Apparently, I'm going to become grandfather x 3 today.  Daughter's at the hospital now.  Maybe they'll change the baby's name to Jesus   

wxmanmitch
wxmanmitch

Season's Greetings! I will admit I haven't been on here much of late, but Twitter/X has been such a s***show since Musk's hostile takeover of the platform that gleaning weather info off of there has b

ScituateWX
ScituateWX

About 2 here in Pembroke pretty cool daughter got to see snow for the first time!

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bwt3650

bwt3650

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Saw some mountain ops posts this am around New England that convey desperation , hope , and patience . 
 
Jay peak probably acted like they got a rogue shower and mounds of snow are imminent lol . Tim Kelly does a decent JB impression on his forecast there sometimes
Many are closed today which seems prudent 
 
They need a snower badly before the new year 
Attitash got six inches of rain , can’t imagine Wildcat even has the resources to fix much fast there as all the condo rentals for holiday week @ Attitash may demand they use resources there (Wildcat is in middle of national Forrest and has no condos )
My guess is there are going to be higher risk of serious accidents by folks who don’t gauge the conditions well and the mountain will usually say “varied conditions / frozen granular) instead of icy death on some trails 

There’s going to be a lot of sugar coating it..people spend a lot of money for the holiday week and no one wants to hear “it sucks, stay home”. Mountain ops will have their work cut out. It was bad; really bad. Jay doesn’t even have enough down low on tramside to run the lifts out of that side. But snowmaking trails will be resurfaced, groomed and survive. You won’t really lose any. There was a ton of snow out there on the naturals and in the woods so that’s where it hurts. Put a foot of fake stuff over the crusty base tho, and it’ll come right back. I think we’ll get something in the next 7-10 up there that will bring it back to respectability at least. Killington south will be more of an issue IMO.

As far as TK, he’s not JB. He def will lean more optimistic and downplay the bad, but he knows that mountain climate better than anyone. And he’s been highly accurate this year, if not on the low side a few times. The mountain is not going to pay him to say it’s a death ribbon stay home, but he’ll be up front about rain, wind holds etc. good dude too from what I hear.


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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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47 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


There’s going to be a lot of sugar coating it..people spend a lot of money for the holiday week and no one wants to hear “it sucks, stay home”. Mountain ops will have their work cut out. It was bad; really bad. Jay doesn’t even have enough down low on tramside to run the lifts out of that side. But snowmaking trails will be resurfaced, groomed and survive. You won’t really lose any. There was a ton of snow out there on the naturals and in the woods so that’s where it hurts. Put a foot of fake stuff over the crusty base tho, and it’ll come right back. I think we’ll get something in the next 7-10 up there that will bring it back to respectability at least. Killington south will be more of an issue IMO.

As far as TK, he’s not JB. He def will lean more optimistic and downplay the bad, but he knows that mountain climate better than anyone. And he’s been highly accurate this year, if not on the low side a few times. The mountain is not going to pay him to say it’s a death ribbon stay home, but he’ll be up front about rain, wind holds etc. good dude too from what I hear.


.

I honestly like his passion and he was one of my favorite Mets on NECN . 

You and PF certainly know tons more than me from experience of how fast the man made stuff will bounce back and I know  the biggest resorts will get their groomers going in a couple days 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

still mainly rain for 85% of the posters here.   Lack of cold air remains an issue for the foreseeable future.

just some thoughts for the general audience:

My constituencies from Michigan have had a white Holiday season ( on the average). Both Lake Effect assisted and/or synoptic ... there's been enough cold around. 

Just not around here.

It's not helping that the storm track has been averaging something like Tennessee to Ontario, either.  If it were more Tennessee to Miller B, than the total mass-fields of the continent would have had been colder from Ohio to Maine, and we'd have been at least in contention over the last month. 

Perception is still going to be largely influenced by IMBY. Even in the best efforts to remain objective, the reader senses the author's struggle (ha ha).  One has to almost be compassionate to fact that it's kind of hard to smell roses when sitting in a bed of shit.  But ... we just have to struggle and realize that it's just been our heads that were stuck inside this circumstantial bag-o crap pattern for the last 3 .. 5 weeks. That's all it was.

That said ...  there's a pattern modulation going on as we enter the mid range ( not in 4 weeks!) It's not just the ridge nodes and L/W positioning stuff, which is leaned heavily into a +PNA--> +PNAP response, but wrt the flow characteristic too.  We are losing some 2 or 3 isohypses ( hgt lines) between the blurred boundary of the HC termination latitudes vs 50-60N.   Heights over Miami are < 582 in the ambience prior to wave-related height compression. 

This manifests in slower moving wave space movements. It manifests in slower geostrophic wind velocities as the jets circuitously wend their way around these slower moving fixtures --> shear is down in general...

These observations - in the modeling mind you ... - should they pan out leads to really a different storm type.  Just apply, right ?   You have slower moving storms with weaker gradients. We also enter increased potential for blocking - in fact, the ridge over Manitoba thing with the REX couplet sliding underneath is quite likely an immediate physical response to the onset of the relaxed circulation mode.

So the short take-away is a pattern change. Not getting into who said what and when. 

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just some thoughts for the general audience:

My constituencies from Michigan have had a white Holiday season ( on the average). Both Lake Effect assisted and/or synoptic ... there's been enough cold around. 

Just not around here.

It's not helping that the storm track has been averaging something like Tennessee to Ontario, either.  If it were more Tennessee to Miller B, than the total mass-fields of the continent would have had been colder from Ohio to Maine, and we'd have been at least in contention over the last month. 

Perception is still going to be largely influenced by IMBY. Even in the best efforts to remain objective, the reader senses the author's struggle (ha ha).  One has to almost be compassionate to fact that it's kind of hard to smell roses when sitting in a bed of shit.  But ... we just have to struggle and realize that it's just that our heads were inside this circumstantial bag-o crap pattern for the last 3 .. 5 weeks. That's all it was.

That said ...  there's a pattern modulation going on as we enter the mid range ( not in 4 weeks!) It's not just the ridge nodes and L/W positioning stuff, which is leaned heavily into a +PNA--> +PNAP response, but wrt the flow characteristic too.  We are losing some 2 or 3 isohypses ( hgt lines) between the blurred boundary of the HC termination latitudes vs 50-60N.   Heights over Miami are < 582 in the ambience prior to wave-related height compression. 

This manifests in slower moving wave space movements. It manifests in slower geostrophic wind velocities as the jets circuitously wend their way around these slower moving fixtures --> shear is down in general...

These observations - in the modeling mind you ... - should they pan out leads to really a different storm type.  Just apply, right ?   You have slower moving storms with weaker gradients. We also enter increased potential for blocking - in fact, the ridge over Manitoba thing with the REX couplet sliding underneath is quite likely an immediate physical response to the onset of the relaxed circulation mode. 

 

The 0c 850 line is north of international falls from hour zero to 180 and as our storm moves east across upper plains on Xmas day . (There are a few frames where it may dance to -1 interspaced but um ya that is many standard decisions above normal . It appears We need a ton of confluence to push down into and from Quebec to see something frozen in much of New England from that system at this juncture 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

The 0c 850 line is north of international falls from hour zero to 180 and as our storm moves east across upper plains on Xmas day . (There are a few frames where it may dance to -1 interspaced but um ya that is many standard decisions above normal .We need a ton of confluence to push down into and from Quebec to see something frozen in much of New England 

Yea, I have a hard time envisioning a positive outcome for SNE on that next one....gonna have to wait for 2024 IMO.

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40/70 Benchmark

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's better for your mental health to accept what's happening to the climate than hoping for the near impossible 

My mental health is just fine, which is why people (technically their insurance companies) pay me damn good money to for assistance in that capacity.

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Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

The 0c 850 line is north of international falls from hour zero to 180 and as our storm moves east across upper plains on Xmas day . (There are a few frames where it may dance to -1 interspaced but um ya that is many standard decisions above normal .We need a ton of confluence to push down into and from Quebec to see something frozen in much of New England 

Hahaha .. I like "decisions" way better than the expected "deviations" in that context - kind of gives it a cosmic dildo vibe there.

No but if we are looking for confluence?  yeah that ridge node up there/quasi block is a form of confluence.  It's causing DVM over a large area, so ... a way to "maybe" ( I'm just saying maybe here -- don't wanna get sacked ) think of it is home grown cold.

The other aspect is that between the 9th and 17th ( last week...) there was a brief pulse of -EPO. It just wasn't very demonstrative, real nonetheless.  If you loop the 850 mb anomalies in the EPS/GEFs, you can see that there has been modest cold injects into the Canadian shield.  I suspect there is some chance that as the pattern is changing here over the next week ... guidance may be too conservative with the thermal distribution we are leaving.  Once these small but crucial colder mass fields get entangled with the circulation under that ridge node up there, it may correct toward a better layout.  I've seen this in the past.  So we'll see. 

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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

keep telling yourself that as you gaze over endless brown landscape <3

Well, I was fairly well prepared for that reality mentally, as I spent about a week describing why it would happen in pretty vivid detail. But as a fail safe, the wife, kids and rewarding career tend to keep me grounded should January-February some how not work out as expected.

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