December 2023

[J Paul Gordon]

So will Novcember be followed by Morchuary? 

[Layman]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Like I said, ... there may be a history there that is contentious?  I am not in defense of either side and don't really have any awareness to begin with, and don't care to be involved. 

The principled approach of evaluating one's forecasting technique, if/when the technique is not successful, IS SCIENCE.

period.

not open to debate.

that's the only point I was making - hence the kernel of value in the this 'edbugg' poster's comments. 

 I understand what you're saying but find much irony in these statements.  My interpretation of science is different.  When the gate comes down and the debate is forced to stop, I certainly question what's going on.  Understandably that may not apply 100% here as the focus is on evaluating forecasting technique specifically.  If the current state of anything being observed scientifically can't be debated, it would appear to me actual, proper science is simply not being employed.  

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Layman said:

 I understand what you're saying but find much irony in these statements.  My interpretation of science is different.  When the gate comes down and the debate is forced to stop, I certainly question what's going on.  Understandably that may not apply 100% here as the focus is on evaluating forecasting technique specifically.  If the current state of anything being observed scientifically can't be debated, it would appear to me actual, proper science is simply not being employed.  

See ... I don't know why you are even turning that bold phrase when responding to anything I just said.

I'm talking specifically about the scientific process.  

One makes a prediction, they test the prediction. 

Making a long lead forecast, and then being asked to go back and evaluate the success/failure, is that process.

Mm ..it sounds like there is a back-story between that poster and some of y'all. Don't combine my ethic/principle above with that story.  - if that is happening.  I'm not stopping jack shit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're missing the point in lieu of being angry - got it... I won't push any buttons. Wasn't the intent.  I'm out

I'm not "missing the point"...your resorting to condescension when faced with resistance. Got it. 

I completely understand skepticism in the sense that long range guidance is prone to large error, so set expectations accordingly. But it needs to stop short of criticizing anyone who dares to venture towards giving a good faith effort, and anyone who sees avenues towards more wintery outcomes because it fosters a close minded approach. That is the antithesis of the type of approach that relatively poor skill at extended lead times should foster, which is an open-mind thought process. Its a weather forum...we discuss long range guidance, even it looks like it may offer wintry opportunities.

That type of mindset is why we have a brigade of 5 PPD members tossing weenies at anyone who dares to mention that forbidden four letter word...sno#. I don't believe you do or endorse that, but your post inhibits efforts to reduce that within this context IMO.

[Chrisrotary12]

Only 10 more days until our next threat. New Year's Grinch?

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not "missing the point"...your resorting to condescension when faced with resistance. Got it. 

I completely understand skepticism in the sense that long range guidance is prone to large error, so set expectations accordingly. But it needs to stop short of criticizing anyone who dares to venture towards giving a good faith effort, and anyone who sees avenues towards more wintery outcomes because it fosters a close minded approach. That is the antithesis of the type of approach that relatively poor skill at extended lead times should foster, which is an open-mind thought process. Its a weather forum...we discuss long range guidance, even it looks like it may offer wintry opportunities.

That type of mindset is why we have a brigade of 5 PPD members tossing a weenies at anyone who dares to mention that forbidden four letter word...sno#. I don't believe you do that, but your post inhibits efforts to reduce that IMO.

I’ve given up on these folks Ray. No matter how much science you, or Brooklynweather, or Will or Scott give them…they just keep up with the persistence idea, and discourage folks from even wanting to engage.   A shame where these people are taking a good subforum. It’s a big detriment unfortunately. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I’ve given up on these folks Ray. No matter how much science you, or Brooklynweather, or Will or Scott give them…they just keep up with the persistence idea, and discourage folks from even wanting to engage.   A shame where these people are taking a good subforum. It’s a big detriment unfortunately. 

I don't think John meant it that way, but that is how it comes across because he was defending edugg, who was being an ass.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think John meant it that way, but that is how it comes across because he was defending edugg, who was being an ass.

Oh…I didn’t mean John.  I meant the usual suspects, we know all too well who they are. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh…I didn’t mean John.  I meant the usual suspects, we know all too well who they are. 

I mean, on paper within the proper context....I get what John meant, but read the room.

[Great Snow 1717]

32 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Only 10 more days until our next threat. New Year's Grinch?

Start the thread!

[cleetussnow]

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Only 10 more days until our next threat. New Year's Grinch?

Blech

[NittanyWx]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I completely understand skepticism in the sense that long range guidance is prone to large error, so set expectations accordingly. But it needs to stop short of criticizing anyone who dares to venture towards giving a good faith effort, and anyone who sees avenues towards more wintery outcomes because it fosters a close minded approach. That is the antithesis of the type of approach that relatively poor skill at extended lead times should foster, which is an open-mind thought process. Its a weather forum...we discuss long range guidance, even it looks like it may offer wintry opportunities.

That type of mindset is why we have a brigade of 5 PPD members tossing weenies at anyone who dares to mention that forbidden four letter word...sno#. I don't believe you do or endorse that, but your post inhibits efforts to reduce that within this context IMO.

I agree with this, but I also think people need to stop being so sensitive when it comes to pushback on that snow idea.  If someone who's done this for a long time comes out and says 'I think that's wrong and a bad idea', it's not shutting down debate.  It's literally the debate process.  

 

If you've got a view, take it.  If someone pushes back on your view that's not shutting down debate.  I'm sorry, but you're going to get challenged if you're going to make a forecast.  Need to accept that.  Especially if you continually have the same view and it blows up in your face.  

 

What I don't accept however, is selective verification.  Far too many people try to convince people they were right after the fact or come with 'well I was wrong on timing and right on idea'...guys timing is as important to the forecast as the directional view.

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Blech

Hey, I look at it as something interesting to track. Changes seem to be afoot... we'll see

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Blech

I'll take that in a heart beat ...

That's a fantastically fun look.  Slow moving gyre with plenty of cold air on the north side of the bowl. 

I mean (haha) compared to where we've been?   Serve me up a big plate of "blech" then.  good lord -

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

...guys timing is as important to the forecast as the directional view.

True, however what some here fail to understand is the further you go in the future the harder timing becomes... and should be looked at with a grain of salt. Expecting a prognostication to hold past a couple weeks ( being EXTREMELY generous right there) and not change is foolish, but fun to discuss. Some just get too wrapped up in it

[Typhoon Tip]

If your really want some cognitive dissonance ...

   'time is relative'

  hahahaha

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I agree with this, but I also think people need to stop being so sensitive when it comes to pushback on that snow idea.  If someone who's done this for a long time comes out and says 'I think that's wrong and a bad idea', it's not shutting down debate.  It's literally the debate process.  

 

If you've got a view, take it.  If someone pushes back on your view that's not shutting down debate.  I'm sorry, but you're going to get challenged if you're going to make a forecast.  Need to accept that.  Especially if you continually have the same view and it blows up in your face.  

 

What I don't accept however, is selective verification.  Far too many people try to convince people they were right after the fact or come with 'well I was wrong on timing and right on idea'...guys timing is as important to the forecast as the directional view.

Debate is one thing, just automatically being dismissive is another. Plenty of folks like @Allsnowand @bluewavethat view things differently that I have had great discussions with. But the crap being offered by this persistence crowd is another thing entirely. Someone simply mentions that the long range looks more wintery shouldn't be met with "haven't you learned anything"...that is simply close minded, incendiary crap. Now, if you want to put the breaks on and suggest that perhaps guidance may be rushing the retrograde of the Canadian ridging....then sure. Possible. 

[ORH_wxman]

GEM is building in that high too for the 12/27 system....GEFS are starting to bite too, so we'll see if other guidance suites like the EPS try to come around on that potential threat.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Also better that things are active as we get out 10-15 days 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Also better that things are active as we get out 10-15 days 

It was good to see the GEFS almost completely cave to the EPS the last couple runs in the 11-15 days. If you recall a couple days ago when the GEFS didn’t look awful but they weren’t nearly as good-looking as the EPS. Now they look like the EPS. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Has an icy look with the cold air - shallow as it first bleeds in.   Ice to sleet to snow is fun for all.  Decent wind gradient too.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEM is building in that high too for the 12/27 system....GEFS are starting to bite too, so we'll see if other guidance suites like the EPS try to come around on that potential threat.

I don’t have a problem with a system being on the charts then… I’ve been advertising tail out of the month for my own reason along with everyone else…

The cold air has been a real interesting mystery this year, but the GFS is actually started suppressing that system in lieu of the Canadian circulation mode – relatively new albeit… – several cycles ago. This is the first one that’s crossed the mix/snow possibility along 40 N.. 

Canadian looks like it turns that into a nasty ice storm for the interior. Out of a coastal would be rare but we have seen that in the past.

I think the main take away is that colder scenarios are finally entering the possibility. 

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Debate is one thing, just automatically being dismissive is another. Plenty of folks like @Allsnowand @bluewavethat I have had great discussion with. But the crap being offered by this persistence crowd is another thing entirely. Someone simply mentions that the long range looks more wintery shouldn't be met with "haven't you learned anything"...that is simply close minded, incendiary crap. Now, if you want to put the breaks on and suggest that perhaps guidance may be rushing the retrograde of the Canadian ridging....then sure. Possible. 

But hasn't persistence won out since fall of 2022???

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

But hasn't persistence won out since fall of 2022???

What is your point? It won out quite a bit from 2009 to 2011, as well. Its mindless....if suggesting persistence, bring something to the table as to why instead of simply weening folks that are simply offering data. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

But hasn't persistence won out since fall of 2022???

The old saying is persistence fails when the stakes are the highest. Besides, this current pattern doesn't look anything like last year so the only "persistence" is the sensible wx of little to no snow and AN temps. There's no reason to actually stick with persistence if evidence is starting to mount that it's coming to an end.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The old saying is persistence fails when the stakes are the highest. Besides, this current pattern doesn't look anything like last year so the only "persistence" is the sensible wx of little to no snow and AN temps. There's no reason to actually stick with persistence if evidence is starting to mount that it's coming to an end.

......but time will tell if it actually comes to an end....and how long the end lasts for..that is the key. Does it end for a week or does it end for 3-5 weeks...

[NittanyWx]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If your really want some cognitive dissonance ...

   'time is relative'

  hahahaha

The timing is literally half of the forecast verification, but to some it is a fungible concept 

[NittanyWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The old saying is persistence fails when the stakes are the highest. Besides, this current pattern doesn't look anything like last year so the only "persistence" is the sensible wx of little to no snow and AN temps. There's no reason to actually stick with persistence if evidence is starting to mount that it's coming to an end.

I don't disagree here, but persistence is a view and sometimes it rewards a forecaster who has a healthy dose of skepticism.   It works until it doesnt.  

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

I don't disagree here, but persistence is a view and sometimes it rewards a forecaster who has a healthy dose of skepticism.   It works until it doesnt.  

Correct...

[brooklynwx99]

this pattern is about as far from last year's at it can possibly be. persistence doesn't really make any sense here