WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Negative, I posted what the OP run showed and people lose it. OP run…?…exactly my point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: OP run…?…exactly my point. Potential is there for all rain for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m hoping we can turn it around in January, going on 2 years without much winter weather here. After the Jan 22 blizzard, not much. I'd sacrifice several bad winters for one of those 30+ events you seem to find your way into but yea, after a bad stretch that memory fades and we beg for winter again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Positive thoughts/ affirmations with Stuart Smalley This winter will look good because gosh darn it I’m worth it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 will this be one of those winters where we get one monster and the rest is warm cutters and dry windy cold? has been the theme lately, and yeah I'd trade the rest of winter for a monster KU, was never really a pack or otg for start to finish guy, so yeah gimme a KU and I'll be happy if the rest is a rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Potential is there for all rain for sure. Let him go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Potential is there for all rain for sure. We don’t get solid airmasses in here until early January with this pattern progression. We can have some workable ones later this month though…interior prob favored of course. But they could also be cutters too. I’d keep expectations fairly low for now but right now, I’d have higher expectations for the first half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Scott or Will can you chime in on the questions I asked those who favor a flip to a good pattern post NYE . Brooklyn answered in a clear concise way , I’m sure many here are curious to what you both think . Particularly, how confident are you (1-10) in a flip to a favorable or “real good” pattern now for the NYE time frame . How long do you think it lasts ( any scenarios you see as likely for time frames) and lastly if not very good , then how wide are the goal posts at this juncture for the flip period , serviceable , up and in (atleast) and is poop still a distinct possibility in your mind . Thank you and I’m NOT trying to tie Anyone to details that some troll will bring up 2 weeks later , I’m literally just looking for more of a dive into (stick neck out ) for that period that the majority seem to be waiting on and many counting on and consumes most of the boards back and forths 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We don’t get solid airmasses in here until early January with this pattern progression. We can have some workable ones later this month though…interior prob favored of course. But they could also be cutters too. I’d keep expectations fairly low for now but right now, I’d have higher expectations for the first half of January. Anything pre 2024 is a bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Potential is there for all rain for sure. OP run at 300 plus hrs…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Just stating what it shows. 12z gfs pretty similar I think the main issue is the approach. Your approach is just nothing's happening and nothing's going to happen. Close the shades till the end of the winter. The point that several people are trying to make is that things probably will change in the way. The forecasts are over 2 weeks out. So your comments always come across as if it's done and it looks like it's going to be that way through the winter. If you had a different approach You probably wouldn't get the comment you're getting. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I think the main issue is the approach. Your approach is just nothing's happening and nothing's going to happen. Close the shades till the end of the winter. The point that several people are trying to make is that things probably will change in the way. The forecasts are over 2 weeks out. So your comments always come across as if it's done and it looks like it's going to be that way through the winter. If you had a different approach You probably wouldn't get the comment you're getting. it’s been so long since the pattern actually looked good for the coastal plain of SNE within 5 days I honestly can’t recall if Taunton gets excited when it does or mehs it when it looks good (probably back in winter 2021-22) I don’t remember the lead up to the memorable Taunton - Bridgewater crushing 30” and if he was full on weenie excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I think the main issue is the approach. Your approach is just nothing's happening and nothing's going to happen. Close the shades till the end of the winter. The point that several people are trying to make is that things probably will change in the way. The forecasts are over 2 weeks out. So your comments always come across as if it's done and it looks like it's going to be that way through the winter. If you had a different approach You probably wouldn't get the comment you're getting. Maybe we should make a fantasy/delusion thread for everyone to discuss their hopes and dreams for the rest of the winter? It is pretty irritating that you can’t state what an OP run shows. It suck’s it’s not snow, but we still discuss the weather here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe we should make a fantasy/delusion thread for everyone to discuss their hopes and dreams for the rest of the winter? It is pretty irritating that you can’t state what an OP run shows. It suck’s it’s not snow, but we still discuss the weather here. Most forums just go silent during periods of a crap pattern, but we have such a talkative group that I think the same back and forth would unfold in every subform if they all stayed busy all winter ..I mean the only positive thing to talk about is future changes and the only reality for the high confidence period of next 7 days is garbage and that has been rehashed for a week plus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe we should make a fantasy/delusion thread for everyone to discuss their hopes and dreams for the rest of the winter? It is pretty irritating that you can’t state what an OP run shows. It suck’s it’s not snow, but we still discuss the weather here. I'm frustrated to man. The optimistic side of me is really hoping that things will turn around. I'm not blind to what the models are showing, and most people on here intelligent enough to know what's going on. The difference is, we're not sticking your heads in the sand like this ugly pattern doesn't exist, we're trying to find pieces in the long range that shows a change. I think we would all agree that it would really suck if we had a second year in a row with crappy winter weather. I'm definitely not trying to attack you or anyone else who are taking the long-range models for what they are at the moment. Just know that there's a lot of us that also know that they can change and they probably will. The question is when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Nobody ever used to post OP runs beyond D7-8 unless it showed something ridiculous like a cat 3 hurricane landfall or an epic blizzard and it was usually caveated with “just for fun”….I’m not sure why it’s become more common but it honestly degrades the discussion if it’s just posted and meant to be taken semi-seriously. OP runs are demonstrably way less accurate than an ensemble mean once you are out that far. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott or Will can you chime in on the questions I asked those who favor a flip to a good pattern post NYE . Brooklyn answered in a clear concise way , I’m sure many here are curious to what you both think . Particularly, how confident are you (1-10) in a flip to a favorable or “real good” pattern now for the NYE time frame . How long do you think it lasts ( any scenarios you see as likely for time frames) and lastly if not very good , then how wide are the goal posts at this juncture for the flip period , serviceable , up and in (atleast) and is poop still a distinct possibility in your mind . Thank you and I’m NOT trying to tie Anyone to details that some troll will bring up 2 weeks later , I’m literally just looking for more of a dive into (stick neck out ) for that period that the majority seem to be waiting on and many counting on and consumes most of the boards back and forths I think most of January is going to be decent to perhaps very good. I’m sure we’ll have a period of crap but I wouldn’t expect it to last long. I’m also not a long range expert…and even experts are going to be wrong a LOT when it comes to LR. Early in the month should be our first reasonable period of a longwave pattern that actually is better than climo to produce snow events. I think interior will be favored initially because we’re still working with regular polar airmasses, but the coast should get more chances as we go deeper into winter. I think a lot of people forget (I know Scott doesn’t, lol) that the coast was an epic dumpster fire outside of 12/5 in 2002-2003 until February. Even the cold january they got mostly skunked while the interior was knee deep in pack from Xmas and 1/3-4 interior bombs. For the “what can go wrong” idea…well, we get a decent pattern but it just doesn’t produce a lot of snow…or the better pattern gets can-kicked another 2 weeks which honestly wouldn’t be that shocking in an El Niño . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Interesting evolution of gefs today. It’s flatter but more pressed colder in the long range. Definitely a look that can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Interesting evolution of gefs today. It’s flatter but more pressed colder in the long range. Definitely a look that can work. It’s serviceable but def not as good as the EPS imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Euro still drops some snow Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s serviceable but def not as good as the EPS imho. Agree. But I like it better vs where 0/6z were heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think most of January is going to be decent to perhaps very good. I’m sure we’ll have a period of crap but I wouldn’t expect it to last long. I’m also not a long range expert…and even experts are going to be wrong a LOT when it comes to LR. Early in the month should be our first reasonable period of a longwave pattern that actually is better than climo to produce snow events. I think interior will be favored initially because we’re still working with regular polar airmasses, but the coast should get more chances as we go deeper into winter. I think a lot of people forget (I know Scott doesn’t, lol) that the coast was an epic dumpster fire outside of 12/5 in 2002-2003 until February. Even the cold january they got mostly skunked while the interior was knee deep in pack from Xmas and 1/3-4 interior bombs. For the “what can go wrong” idea…well, we get a decent pattern but it just doesn’t produce a lot of snow…or the better pattern gets can-kicked another 2 weeks which honestly wouldn’t be that shocking in an El Niño . Yeah, that’s how I feel pretty much. Might even still be some issues in the first week like you said. But I think as we go deeper, it gets better it will have to, because eventually that low retrogrades near the Aleutian’s , and perhaps even tries to become a little ridging or less troughing which means colder comes deeper into the CONUS. December appears to be about as bad as can be. I didn’t expect that even though I thought it would be mild. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Punt type winter in the offing until I see something inside of 10. Right now it appears to be outside the 20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get Kevin 70” of rain this year. Looks like he blows right by that in the next 10 days, Maybe 80"+? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks like he blows right by that in the next 10 days, Maybe 80"+? Yup…Rains and rains and rains to Maines and Maines and Maines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, that’s how I feel pretty much. Might even still be some issues in the first week like you said. But I think as we go deeper, it gets better it will have to, because eventually that low retrogrades near the Aleutian’s , and perhaps even tries to become a little ridging or less troughing which means colder comes deeper into the CONUS. December appears to be about as bad as can be. I didn’t expect that even though I thought it would be mild. Yeah I thought we’d prob sneak at least and advisory event i during the month of December…still could post-12/27 but it’s looking more precarious. That said, Nino Decembers can be hideous even in otherwise excellent winters. ‘57-58 was, 65-66 was, so was 14-15. I don’t think any of those Decembers had an event more than 2” in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 This is actually a pretty damned meridional pattern on the EPS today for 12/29….I think this is how we’d sneak something in prior to New Years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 December is gone, Just looking ahead now to Jan, Hopefully we start out of the gate with some snow, Don't need to waste weeks that month either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is actually a pretty damned meridional pattern on the EPS today for 12/29….I think this is how we’d sneak something in prior to New Years Yeah, I just noticed that. That would be good right around the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Close the shades indefinitely Not where I live. going down to Virginia for Christmas and back on the 27th and I suspect they’ll be snow on the ground before New Year’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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