TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Things still look on track. It’s a toss up the week after Christmas, but certainly opportunities, especially in and up. 6z gfs has another slow moving Rainer to canadas on the 28th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 6z gfs has another slow moving Rainer to canadas on the 28th Yeah I’m not worried about an op run especially in and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Got a house in N Conway post Xmas . Sking looks like horse crap after 2 huge cutters and gonna need 28’th to snow @ Wildcat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 6z gfs has another slow moving Rainer to canadas on the 28th Have you always been a weenie? You might be worse than me. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 6z gfs has another slow moving Rainer to canadas on the 28th Keep rolling and there are 2 more. No sign of winter on the op run. Tenor of the season I’m afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 have we gone towards looking at shitty OP runs to cancel winter now? and ignoring the good ones? so weird 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: have we gone towards looking at shitty OP runs to cancel winter now? and ignoring the good ones? so weird I asked Santa if I could shovel animations 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: have we gone towards looking at shitty OP runs to cancel winter now? and ignoring the good ones? so weird Ensembles got worse too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Ensembles got worse too they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Fight fight fight 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month I didn’t think they looked quite as good in the early January as yesterday. Can I also point out that you got a put a lot more stock in the 7 to 10 day operational‘s which continue to look hideous then the fantasy 2+ week ensembles., They’ve been fooling you for a month now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: I didn’t think they looked quite as good in the early January as yesterday. Can I also point out that you got a put a lot more stock in the 7 to 10 day operational‘s which continue to look hideous then the fantasy 2+ week ensembles., They’ve been fooling you for a month now. you would put more stock in a day 10 OP than a day 10-15 ensemble mean? why? that's like putting more faith in a random member than the mean. that won't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month In regards to day 10-15 the GEFS have trended worse for sure over the past 24 hours. While GEPS and EPS look great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track What would you say your level of confidence (1-10) is that it’s a flip to a favorable / real good look after new years and any indication how long that period could be, lastly if real favorable doesn’t work out is dog shiat still on table or do you think it’s more of a workable look at worst after new years . The first sentence is something i mean to ask more when looking at future flips. I’m literally just looking to see how much folks are weighing them between could/might happen , should happen , strongly will happen and then if it doesn’t are the goal posts wide on the other side or still a serviceable look . This goes to *anyone * who is looking for a flip by New years That is basically what the entire subforum seems to be conveying / waiting for but since I can’t offer much meteorologically speaking I want to touch on Will / Scott / you / Rays confidence level in this idea 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: What would you say your level of confidence (1-10) is that it’s a flip to a favorable / real good look after new years and any indication how long that period could be, lastly if real favorable doesn’t work out is dog shiat still on table or do you think it’s more of a workable look at worst after new years . The first sentence is something i mean to ask more when looking at future flips. I’m literally just looking to see how much folks are weighing them between could/might happen , should happen , strongly will happen and then if it doesn’t are the goal posts wide on the other side or still a serviceable look . This goes to anyone who is looking for a flip by New years favorable after NYE? probably like 6 or 7/10. would probably last through mid-month before a relaxation as the MJO wave moving through the more favorable phases craps out. even if it's not super favorable, which is possible if the jet remains on steroids for some reason (nothing shows this) I highly doubt it'll be as crappy as the pattern now. the jet shouldn't be as strong it's not a lock or anything but I think that once the jet relaxes, which it will, heights recover into AK and we get a much better source region 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: favorable after NYE? probably like 6 or 7/10. would probably last through mid-month before a relaxation as the MJO wave moving through the more favorable phases craps out. even if it's not super favorable, which is possible if the jet remains on steroids for some reason (nothing shows this) I highly doubt it'll be as crappy as the pattern now. the jet shouldn't be as strong it's not a lock or anything but I think that once the jet relaxes, which it will, heights recover into AK and we get a much better source region Thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track Nothing looks favorable this month, we’ll see about January but need massive changes between now and then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Nothing looks favorable this month, we’ll see about January but need massive changes between now and then you don't really need massive changes. you just need the jet to relax... that should occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nothing looks favorable this month, we’ll see about January but need massive changes between now and then No changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: No changes. Close the shades indefinitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Have you always been a weenie? You might be worse than me. Was what I posted false? This place is becoming overrun by people who only want to be fed positive thoughts on potential changes 2-3 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Was what I posted false? This place is becoming overrun by people who only want to be fed positive thoughts on potential changes 2-3 weeks away. Going to be some record low snowfall for the month in the northeast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Was what I posted false? This place is becoming overrun by people who only want to be fed positive thoughts on potential changes 2-3 weeks away. If you pinched the most diehard optimist here even they would admit it looks like crap. And December was a big disappointment. It can snow in December and just a week or 10 days ago the period just before and into the holiday week looked promising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Was what I posted false? This place is becoming overrun by people who only want to be fed positive thoughts on potential changes 2-3 weeks away. You have some major issues. Go wallow in your misery. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You have some major issues. Go wallow in your misery. Negative, I posted what the OP run showed and people lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I’m hoping we can turn it around in January, going on 2 years without much winter weather here. After the Jan 22 blizzard, not much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: If you pinched the most diehard optimist here even they would admit it looks like crap. And December was a big disappointment. It can snow in December and just a week or 10 days ago the period just before and into the holiday week looked promising. Lmao…yesterday you told us it looked like crap going forward. And then Will came on right after you, and said he thought it actually looked better than the day before lol. So I mean I don’t think you even know what you’re looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I’m not worried about an op run especially in and up. Just stating what it shows. 12z gfs pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Just stating what it shows. 12z gfs pretty similar Let’s get Kevin 70” of rain this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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