Layman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 How likely is this to push far enough east again so the wind along the immediate coast (NH and ME) is much less than modeled? That last storm was predicting gusts over 50mph IMBY and we literally had none as it rained. Picked up to modest 20mph-ish gusts after the storm moved out but that's any regular day around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 GFS is almost identical to other models. Right up the Henry Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: GFS is almost identical to other models. Right up the Henry Hudson. It’s got a SSE elongation that might prohibit best winds away from SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: GFS is almost identical to other models. Right up the Henry Hudson. Went east quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: GFS is almost identical to other models. Right up the Henry Hudson. Isiaias repete only cool season so less wind I think. Ocean is cold now we invert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Went east quite a bit Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It’s over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Went east quite a bit It matches all the others now. Batten down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Isiaias repete only cool season so less wind I think. Ocean is cold now we invert PWM kicked up a sea breeze yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Isiaias repete only cool season so less wind I think. Ocean is cold now we invert It’s amazing the model agreement we have with globals and mesos. Tracks right up west of NYC and west of ALB. I do think heaviest rains end up west over NJ and NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 hours ago, weathafella said: We had the same experiences in the same region. The 3/19/56 event was memorable in the sense that we weren’t yet at adult height (you could argue I’m still not) making the amount of snow seem so much greater. My dad was a pharmacist and had to get to work in the final hours of the March 56 storm. My brother and I were still too small to manage shoveling 2 feet. Dad ruined our ‘51 Mercury but he made it in time to make sure sick people got their needed medicine. That March '56 dump was about 3x bigger than any snow I'd seen (except 12/47 when I was 21 months old). Then 2 more big storms in '58, 2 in '60 and 2 in '61. Even Fort Kent couldn't approach that cluster of big storms. I thought that with 10" depth in early December this year, we were good to go. Alas . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think there’s a strong case to be made that we should get some legit threats in the Dec 28-Jan 10 range…if that period breaks down into a shit pattern, then it might be time to worry. Climo chances start to increase rapidly moving forward. I’d say if we get to Jan 10 without something in the column, time to worry for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s amazing the model agreement we have with globals and mesos. Tracks right up west of NYC and west of ALB. I do think heaviest rains end up west over NJ and NY Euro EPS GEFS GFS all have a low near Islip Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Climo chances start to increase rapidly moving forward. I’d say if we get to Jan 10 without something in the column, time to worry for sure Why? BLUE Hill 1-15 on 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro EPS GEFS GFS all have a low near Islip Kev Looks locked to me man . 2nd is EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2017_North_American_storm_complex#:~:text=It brought heavy rain and,the Ice Storm of 1998. The number of power outages in the state of Maine surpassed the Ice Storm of 1998.[1] True, but with caveats: --2017 caused far less infrastructure damage than 1998 - poles/transformers/wire, etc. --Comparing outages 2 days (or 2 weeks) after the events show there was little comparison by then. --The power companies, especially CMP, were doing a poorer job in 2017 than 19 years earlier. Lots of tree damage in each one, though mostly breakage in 1998 and a much greater proportion of uprooting in 2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s got a SSE elongation that might prohibit best winds away from SE areas. No way!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Long range looks pretty wintry on all the ensembles at 12z. It’s actually been improving run to run for about 2 days now. Very similar timing to 1993. I think January will be very similar to 1966, 1987, and 2003....obviously adjust for CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think there’s a strong case to be made that we should get some legit threats in the Dec 28-Jan 10 range…if that period breaks down into a shit pattern, then it might be time to worry. Agreed ... I've posted about the 28-31st part of that time range over the last couple of days. The thing is, from a pure numeric value something could emerge between the 23rd and 28th but damn if the models refuse to actual inject anything into the domain during that time frame. Almost of a head scratch given the degree of the d(PNA), really. I'm willing to not bitch about it though because I'm seeing an oddly split hemisphere, with a 'relaxed' flow +PNA tendency happening beneath a frenzied higher latitude fast energetic polar jet and the two are seldom in sync... I believe the lower latitude mass-field distribution is modulating the PNA more so than the higher lat neg interference so causing a miss-leading layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: The number of power outages in the state of Maine surpassed the Ice Storm of 1998.[1] True, but with caveats: --2017 caused far less infrastructure damage than 1998 - poles/transformers/wire, etc. --Comparing outages 2 days (or 2 weeks) after the events show there was little comparison by then. --The power companies, especially CMP, were doing a poorer job in 2017 than 19 years earlier. Lots of tree damage in each one, though mostly breakage in 1998 and a much greater proportion of uprooting in 2017. What still blows me away, is that the 1998 ice storm bought us like 15 years of radar coverage before tree blockage became an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think there’s a strong case to be made that we should get some legit threats in the Dec 28-Jan 10 range…if that period breaks down into a shit pattern, then it might be time to worry. I wouldn't worry until like January 20th, but that's just me...I wouldn't blame anyone for worrying in early Jan if nothing is imminent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't worry until like January 20th, but that's just me...I wouldn't blame anyone for worrying in early Jan if nothing is imminent. Let's just start things off with a quick hitting classic new england 4-8" snow from a blossoming low pressure passing over the BM.. No ptype issues .. it's been forever since one of those.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Let's just start things off with a quick hitting classic new england 4-8" snow from a blossoming low pressure passing over the BM.. No ptype issues .. it's been forever since one of those.. Yea, we just need something to break right with some sort of an event to arrest the fatalistic thought process that has afflicted the forum over the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Hey Will, ha! I just got done head scratching about the lack of injects into the domain between the 23rd and 28th and then this 18z GFS comes out... Not saying these are producing - haven't even looked at the corresponding surface but this and like this is numerically supported prior to the 28th. So we'll see. From this range it's more important to see activity that syncs with signals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Hopefully we downslope here. Forecast for Ammonoosuc River is over 9.5ft, which is right around where access to my property is cut off and we start seeing water up to the houses. We’ve dodged lots of bullets lately, I feel like we are due. And of course, it’s the worst possible time since we are fully booked for weeks. Grrr. Wish I knew how not to stress over things I can’t control. Then again, that may apply to 99.9% of this forum 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It varies and changes, but the trend line is up. For now…Til it’s not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have not been this amped up and excited about a wx event in a long time. Biggie incoming . Mesos and GFS are off the hook. Ya, Since last Saturday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Euro has snow otg for our Clarke's GTG Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Things still look on track. It’s a toss up the week after Christmas, but certainly opportunities, especially in and up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Euro has snow otg for our Clarke's GTG Wednesday. Will you shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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