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December 2023


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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I have faith in January. But this December has been brutal. I expected mild and not much snow. If we get something after Christmas I think many would be happy. I figured this month would have WSW criteria somewhere. But if we get porked region wide then that is something I did not anticipate.

Edit: did not anticipate 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Winters are 4-6wk stretches nowadays anyway. The wire to wire is fantasy.

I forget what year it was (was it winter of 2014-2015) we got crushed in like February. We had a snowstorm like every Monday or Wednesday. I was taking differential equations at community college and we only met like once a week for a month straight. almost got screwed b/c we lost so much class. that is epic stuff. 

I know this also happened the winter of 2010-2011 where we had a storm like every week for a month stretch. That is what elevated my back issue which I am still dealing with today.

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you consider it a great or memorable winter if it only snows in Jan/ Feb.. and we lose December? 

Ancient history, but in our 13 winters (85-86 thru 97-98) in Gardiner, the worst for pre-Jan 1 snowfall was 1992.  However, Feb-Mar were kinda nice, and the 92-93 total trailed only 95-96 over those 13.
The exception that proves the rule?  (If there's any such thing.)

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54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you consider it a great or memorable winter if it only snows in Jan/ Feb.. and we lose December? 

Absolutely! And you damn well know that if it does happen that way that you'll be on the same bus and I will be forgotten. As far as December goes. C'mon on man. That's a silly question.

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2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Absolutely! And you damn well know that if it does happen that way that you'll be on the same bus and I will be forgotten. As far as December goes. C'mon on man. That's a silly question.

Kev has always been consistent with that, though....he hates losing December and wasting the low sun angle.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may be required, truth is what ultimately sets us all free.  Folks may need to admit the climate's changed, simply put. 

I like the Buddha core tenet. May be over simplifying ... certainly do not mean to offend if I am butchering, but from what I gather: All evil's fruits of the entire world including the realities we suffer, pain, sorrow and anguish, they only happen because they were grown from expectation. Reality is a torture chamber of hurt expectation.    

This observation, where we are observing mid latitudes with increasing cold air challenges, might not just be a nuance of the local decadal sample size.  50 years ago, mm less problem with the arithmetic of that thinking.  All available data of that era that created the most objective reality was a stabler climate - which leaves the causality of year to year idiosyncrasies open other variability within the system.  No problem. 

That is not the case any longer, because it CANNOT be the case any longer. All the available data about the present era that creates the best objective reality is that the climate is NOT stable. 

It's probably more for psycho-babble, but I sense two camps of CC acceptance have evolved. 

One is easy. It is flat out it's happening ...everyone is fucked. 

The other is a "softer acceptance." This latter group will say on one hand that the climate has(is) changed(ing), but on the other ... attempt to qualify it - which is ultimately a divisive tact ( bit of a strong word but it is designed to fracture confidence, nonetheless).  "It'll take decades before that happens", "not in our life times", "it's not causing storms to do this - it doesn't work that way", and on and so on.  This is called rationalization in psych. And the clever strategy about these arguments is that they cannot really be refuted within the time span of the given scenario.  Whatever the scenario was, it is long gone into history before x-y-z can be proven.  To label the obvious, they create a comfort space that succeeds in evading truer acceptance- preserving the expectation bias.  

I agree with there being 2 camps, but I would've worded them a little differently than you did. Guess you can put me in the softer acceptance camp. The "everyone is fucked" camp are those who have knee jerk reactions to everything and blame every unusual warm pattern solely on climate change. We literally just had how many harsh winters the previous 2 decades? Now you get a smattering of mild winters and the end is nigh. I know when discussing climate change it's taboo to discuss anything before 1970, but we had plenty of mild snowless winters in the 1930s-1950s.

I will say that here in southeast Michigan (and I know you hail originally from Michigan tip), our winters have not warmed as much as on the East Coast. But when it comes to climate change, doesn't any weather enthusiast worry about their own backyard above anything else? I live in an area that is the definition of 4 distinct seasons, and how have my winter's changed? In the last 100 years, I've gained 1° in temperature (all from Dec) and about 5" of snow annually. Do I think some areas of the world are fucked because of climate change? Absolutely. But my area certainly is not one of them, and neither is New England. The biggest irony of all about climate change is that it's something people are supposed to want to change and prevent, but the biggest climate change enthusiasts on this board are the ones who have such an extreme excitement over a warming globe that any slowing or prevention of that would be nothing short of depressing for them. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you consider it a great or memorable winter if it only snows in Jan/ Feb.. and we lose December? 

If we got a 14-15 repeat, it would be impossible to not call it a great winter if you like cold/snow. Or a 57-58. Both were near shutouts in December around here. 

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22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree with there being 2 camps, but I would've worded them a little differently than you did. Guess you can put me in the softer acceptance camp. The "everyone is fucked" camp are those who have knee jerk reactions to everything and blame every unusual warm pattern solely on climate change. We literally just had how many harsh winters the previous 2 decades? Now you get a smattering of mild winters and the end is nigh. I know when discussing climate change it's taboo to discuss anything before 1970, but we had plenty of mild snowless winters in the 1930s-1950s.

I will say that here in southeast Michigan (and I know you hail originally from Michigan tip), our winters have not warmed as much as on the East Coast. But when it comes to climate change, doesn't any weather enthusiast worry about their own backyard above anything else? I live in an area that is the definition of 4 distinct seasons, and how have my winter's changed? In the last 100 years, I've gained 1° in temperature (all from Dec) and about 5" of snow annually. Do I think some areas of the world are fucked because of climate change? Absolutely. But my area certainly is not one of them, and neither is New England. The biggest irony of all about climate change is that it's something people are supposed to want to change and prevent, but the biggest climate change enthusiasts on this board are the ones who have such an extreme excitement over a warming globe that any slowing or prevention of that would be nothing short of depressing for them. 

Most of the CC doomsdayers when it comes to winter don’t have a very good knowledge of historical variability. You mentioned the 1930s-1950s and that was actually a pretty brutal period too in New England for snow lovers…the early 1950s were actually unmatched for a LONG time in terms of warmth and low snow...esp in NNE.

It doesn’t require rejecting CC to understand that natural variability works on top of it. We’ve had these discussion in here before many times but you can only lead the horse to water….

I think I posted some maps on how the northern plains/N Rockies were the fastest warming region in winter for a few decades in the late 20th century…now those areas have actually had an negative trend (cooling) since the 1990s in winter while the northeast and SE Canada have had the strongest warming trend during that time. Temporal and spacial difference are going to happen and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another period of colder/snowier winters in the NE after this recent period of warmer/less snowy winters. 
 

Maybe this year will help turn the tables since El Niño can help shake up the Pacific pattern. 

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