December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Expectations low for you and I naturally...but I don't necessarily hate it for sure. If Ray got 10" and I had 2-3" of mashed...fine by me. 

I could live with that....it doesn't need to be 20" to 5" like 12/92.....I can deal with "10-3"....I've come a long way in my willingness to share the wealth.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the follow up wave that was being discussed early would be preferable to many in SNE. First one is going to need a Hail Mary.

Im sure Hubb will be “surprised” by 4 or 5 inches of snow though with that first deal 

Yeah ideally there’s enough spacing for both waves but that might be tough. EPS does have several of the Dec 4th solutions cold enough for a chunk of SNE but a couple of the even snowier looks for most of SNE seem to be on the Dec 5-6 wave. 
 

Im not overly optimistic yet where I am in the interior…anything shovelable would be gravy this early. But there’s enough of a chance to monitor. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could live with that....it doesn't need to be 20" to 5" like 12/92.....I can deal with "10-3"....I've come a long way in my willingness to share the wealth.

   Well that is mighty kind of you.  

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Finally a high that is not modeled to move over a pod of right whales south of Nova Scotia. 

Yeah last winter was comical on the high placements. Hopefully we get some positive regression this year on that front. Why not start with this system. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah ideally there’s enough spacing for both waves but that might be tough. EPS does have several of the Dec 4th solutions cold enough for a chunk of SNE but a couple of the even snowier looks for most of SNE seem to be on the Dec 5-6 wave. 
 

Im not overly optimistic yet where I am in the interior…anything shovelable would be gravy this early. But there’s enough of a chance to monitor. 

I would say our areas have equal chances...my latitude helps, but I'm also closer to the ocean....though with a good high placement, my area may have a slight edge.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah ideally there’s enough spacing for both waves but that might be tough. EPS does have several of the Dec 4th solutions cold enough for a chunk of SNE but a couple of the even snowier looks for most of SNE seem to be on the Dec 5-6 wave. 
 

Im not overly optimistic yet where I am in the interior…anything shovelable would be gravy this early. But there’s enough of a chance to monitor. 

Remember Dec 1996 with the twins -

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would say our areas have equal chances...my latitude helps, but I'm also closer to the ocean.

Agreed we’re not far off on threat probability but I’d prob trade spots with you on this particular setup all else equal. Latitude really helps on that look as it appears on guidance right now. Might be enough to outweigh ocean influence…esp since the high looks decent so you won’t really have to worry about a big east flow off the water…but I’m starting to digress into details that could easily change. 

[weatherwiz]

I'm hoping to come out of December with 30''

[mahk_webstah]

4 hours ago, mreaves said:

I was there this weekend.  Not a lot of snow in the city.  It was pretty chilly especially with the wind.  The most snow I saw was in the Eastern Townships around Thetford Mines.  The city is nice in winter though.

Their Christmas market is fantastic

[mahk_webstah]

57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is a close miss for a follow up wave on Dec 6-7. So that’s one we may have to watch as well. 
 

Still think 12/3-4 is a heavy lift for SNE big snow, but not so much for NNE. 

First ones for us up north, and the second ones for y’all down south

[ORH_wxman]

There’s at least some clustering down off the Delmarva on the individual ensemble plot…but still pretty buckshot overall which is not unexpected D6-7

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm hoping to come out of December with 30''

I wouldn't rule it out.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't rule it out.

Yeah I wouldn't. Any systems we get are going to be juiced up. Get a few nice coastals bombing as it tracks over 40/70 and some smaller 2-3'' events mixed in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed we’re not far off on threat probability but I’d prob trade spots with you on this particular setup all else equal. Latitude really helps on that look as it appears on guidance right now. Might be enough to outweigh ocean influence…esp since the high looks decent so you won’t really have to worry about a big east flow off the water…but I’m starting to digress into details that could easily change. 

NE wind here isn't as big a deal as it is a bit further south in Wilmington, as the angle of the coast is sharper with latitude.....its the east and SE winds, like these first couple events, that still kill me this far north.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh... I just saw that Euro run. That 4th event's colder in the interior push comes to shove with that high placement.

The +PP is built in prior to the system arrival, not as or racing.  Typical to be too mild in the lower 1300' of the atmosphere from this range when/given that sort of set up. 

 But as we've been collectively intimating ... it may be moot anyway as it's not abundantly clear which wave in that troika ends up dominant.  Possibilities range from one in lieu of the others, to all three interfering and nothing gets done... 

Agreed ... the period is of interest/still -

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Remember Dec 1996 with the twins -

I probably did okay where I am now relative to where I was in that second one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First in-season blog probably imminent this week.

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm hoping to come out of December with 30''

You dating 6 different guys?

[40/70 Benchmark]

mreaves with the hammer today.....spiked maple syrup?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

mreaves with the hammer today.....spiked maple syrup?

Festive and frisky. 

[mahk_webstah]

52 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You dating 6 different guys?

I would hope he'd have higher standards.

[Greg]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NE wind here isn't as big a deal as it is a bit further south in Wilmington, as the angle of the coast is sharper with latitude.....its the east and SE winds, like these first couple events, that still kill me this far north.

As Will stated, even a NE Wind with a decent high, doesn't have to be a great high in place, would be fine for even Wilmington. I've seen it myself many times even in December. But an east wind and especially a southeast wind would most definitely be a mid-level and even low-level killer for snow with any weak high or marginal airmass in place.

[Professional Lurker]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be praying for the summit of Deer Scrotum a few miles over yonder from Berkshire park.

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Visibility 1/10 of a mile in blowing indifference.

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could live with that....it doesn't need to be 20" to 5" like 12/92.....I can deal with "10-3"....I've come a long way in my willingness to share the wealth.

Lol.  Don't kid yourself. 

[Typhoon Tip]

People sometimes don't consider the sub-geostrophic wind is different than the isobaric layout enough.  It is pointed more across the isobars.  If the isobars are oriented west to E, surface drag and restoring requirements (physically) forces the wind to go across the isobars in the lower levels. 

There are then two factors that will augment that even further:

1    cross-isobaric flow that sets up during rapid cyclogenesis scenarios.  It happens when pressure falls in the core faster then the time dependency in the Coriolis force; the immediate restoring flow responds quicker and the air goes straight at the low - barring terrain.   

2   ageostrophic flow happens when there is a cold air present N,  assisted further if there +PP situated N. That can cause the wind to also exaggerate the sub geostrophic flow.

 

[MJO812]

18z gfs is way different than 12z in regards to the waves for the 1st week of December 

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z gfs is way different than 12z in regards to the waves for the 1st week of December 

 

Almost allows Dec 6th to get us but still a bit wide right. 

[brooklynwx99]

favorable trend in the PNA over the last cycle or so

[brooklynwx99]

if that ridge can find a way to poke into AK it really changes things up. allows colder air to sink into the trough

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

favorable trend in the PNA over the last cycle or so

That's really been all I've concerned over up to this point, getting the pattern orientation into the best fit with the numerical telecon.  At some point along the way, that 'fit' should host a more coherent system result, yeah. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Professional Lurker said:

 

 

Lol.  Don't kid yourself. 

Heavy sarcasm