SJonesWX Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/5/2023 at 3:27 PM, SJonesWX said: Pete Bouchard was pimping the "extreme winds" coming on Sunday...during yesterday's 6pm forecast. my first thought was-well, here comes another non-event. and here comes yet another non-event 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Love to see Scoots like this. Love love love to see it It depends on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, SJonesWX said: and here comes yet another non-event Well shit. Event cancelled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Love to see Scoots like this. Love love love to see it Don't put more hype into Coastal's post then he intended. "Caa mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly". He is not indicating a high probability but a "chance for a brief mixing"... He certainly is not hyping it... That being said this setup has a bit more potential than last week's but not yet a lock by any means. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 gott the good warning text from eversource today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, dryslot said: My amazon order arrived......... That's the one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It depends on track. Right up Hudson and inserts itself into Q-mega backside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, FXWX said: Don't put more hype into Coastal's post then he intended. "Caa mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly". He is not indicating a high probability but a "chance for a brief mixing"... He certainly is not hyping it... That being said this setup has a bit more potential than last week's but not yet a lock by any means. All one needs to do is examine the NAM and GFS soundings. They’ll get it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All one needs to do is examine the NAM and GFS soundings. They’ll get it They looked great a week ago too. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 21 minutes ago, FXWX said: Don't put more hype into Coastal's post then he intended. "Caa mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly". He is not indicating a high probability but a "chance for a brief mixing"... He certainly is not hyping it... That being said this setup has a bit more potential than last week's but not yet a lock by any means. Also I should clarify that I meant more in this area. Sorry if I wasn’t clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: They looked great a week ago too. But that trended east and was never modeled as far west. Maybe this follows suit . But the ensembles love NYC / Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape. Still looks like 50-55 up here in Maine… with soft ground and that wind direction that’ll do some damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Looks like cutoff season in May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, amc said: Still looks like 50-55 up here in Maine… with soft ground and that wind direction that’ll do some damage Yeah those are knots 10m, that's easily 50mph gusts in general. no one's going wild for the wind side. Hopefully it produces, overachieves and we all lose power for days if not weeks, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Starting to look a lot like Jan '87 over North America.... Yes. Interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that Except the 99/100 ones that do every summer. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right up Hudson and inserts itself into Q-mega backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: They looked great a week ago too. Checkmate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Also I should clarify that I meant more in this area. Sorry if I wasn’t clear. It was clear to me, as the overall greatest risk was (no shock) eastern areas; especially the coastal plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It’s a Joke! Unless it goes into eastern NY..it’s a joke here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, FXWX said: It was clear to me, as the overall greatest risk was (no shock) eastern areas; especially the coastal plain. We all know this…some folks just like to hype nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: All one needs to do is examine the NAM and GFS soundings. They’ll get it Of course, that assumes they will be correct, which we all know is frequently not always the case. I do find this system to have a slightly higher chance of verifying; again favoring eastern coastal zones. The last system featured a steadily decreasing threat as we moved from last Friday on into Sunday. Right now, with another 48 hours of trend watching to go, this system seems to be holding a bit more steady... For inland areas, the systems I tend to get excited about are northwest flow events driven by tightening pressure gradients and strong CAA... These southerly flow events are very hard get most inland areas to see widespread damaging gusts... It can happen, but they are relatively rare. I'd watch for any trends of note with the 0z runs... Any backing down would be a red flag....once again the focus is on eastern coastal areas, where if you are not breaking 55 mph, it's not a big deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, FXWX said: Of course, that assumes they will be correct, which we all know is frequently not always the case. I do find this system to have a slightly higher chance of verifying; again favoring eastern coastal zones. The last system featured a steadily decreasing threat as we moved from last Friday on into Sunday. Right now, with another 48 hours of trend watching to go, this system seems to be holding a bit more steady... For inland areas, the systems I tend to get excited about are northwest flow events driven by tightening pressure gradients and strong CAA... These southerly flow events are very hard get most inland areas to see widespread damaging gusts... It can happen, but they are relatively rare. I'd watch for any trends of note with the 0z runs... Any backing down would be a red flag....once again the focus is on eastern coastal areas, where if you are not breaking 55 mph, it's not a big deal. Thanks for the info…and of course Kevin thanks you too. If 0z backs down at all…it’s game over for him, and us for sure. I actually don’t think this is anything for us inland folks already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, FXWX said: Of course, that assumes they will be correct, which we all know is frequently not always the case. I do find this system to have a slightly higher chance of verifying; again favoring eastern coastal zones. The last system featured a steadily decreasing threat as we moved from last Friday on into Sunday. Right now, with another 48 hours of trend watching to go, this system seems to be holding a bit more steady... For inland areas, the systems I tend to get excited about are northwest flow events driven by tightening pressure gradients and strong CAA... These southerly flow events are very hard get most inland areas to see widespread damaging gusts... It can happen, but they are relatively rare. I'd watch for any trends of note with the 0z runs... Any backing down would be a red flag....once again the focus is on eastern coastal areas, where if you are not breaking 55 mph, it's not a big deal. NW CAA generally is boring . Trees are trained for that direction. That’s why we love SE screams. Trees can’t handle that direction anything over 50mph. To me, as long this tracks west we are locked 50-60 and a few + CT.. Especially valley east . This area loves SE winds for damage . Nothing is locked.. but a lot of folks are feeling this . Unless it tracks east over the cape. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NW CAA generally is boring . Trees are trained for that direction. That’s why we love SE screams. Trees can’t handle that direction anything over 50mph. To me, as long this tracks west we are locked 50-60 and a few + CT.. Especially valley east . This area loves SE winds for damage . Nothing is locked.. but a lot of folks are feeling this . Unless it tracks east over the cape. thanks for hoping for the exciting solution even if not snow. I hope your area hits at least 55-60mph SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 A lot of big ifs there…I’ll gamble no big deal at the moment outside the cape and SE areas, so call me skeptical. If I’m wrong, I’ll give you big props pal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Euro is east, sell the wind threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NW CAA generally is boring . Trees are trained for that direction. That’s why we love SE screams. Trees can’t handle that direction anything over 50mph. To me, as long this tracks west we are locked 50-60 and a few + CT.. Especially valley east . This area loves SE winds for damage . Nothing is locked.. but a lot of folks are feeling this . Unless it tracks east over the cape. Agree to disagree... I would confidently predict, far more damage has occurred over the decades during the cold season from gradient driven northwest backside winds than southeast flow events. Especially inland zones. Not trying to Debbie downer and think this one has some decent support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, FXWX said: Agree to disagree... I would confidently predict, far more damage has occurred over the decades during the cold season from gradient driven northwest backside winds than southeast flow events. Especially inland zones. Not trying to Debbie downer and think this one has some decent support... Do the heavy rains and soft ground change things? If the ground was frozen I don't think there'd be much concern for damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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