December 2023

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This from the dude who gets so excitable over a thunderstorm in summer which never produce .. and staring at a bigtime wind event here and not a post or a tweet or anything 

I get excited for thunder, lightning, shelf clouds, and towering cumulus. Anything else is a bonus

[ORH_wxman]

@Typhoon Tip

12/29/76 was an absolute whopper for the 128 belt down into N RI. It wasn't a super phased monster blizzard, but it produced a lot of 12-20" amounts in that corridor. That is the storm Ray loves because ORH was too far west and only got 4".

 

[ORH_wxman]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS continues to look better. Post Christmas looking better for at least part of the region. 

Starting to look a lot like Jan '87 over North America....

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Starting to look a lot like Jan '87 over North America....

That's a good thing?

I think I had that as a wild card analog and as an analog which would not be good to us. 

That winter didn't have any blocking IIRC correctly 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a good thing?

I think I had that as a wild card analog and as an analog which would not be good to us. 

That winter didn't have any blocking IIRC correctly 

No, Jan 87 was good. Very active. 

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a pants tent storm. I think the call was 3-6". Got over a foot of fluff.

I had two inches in Bristol CT and I was thrilled. I remember watching the weather on TV all day. I think some parts of eastern CT had over 8 inches and then emass got lit up. Pretty sure that was a clipper redevelopment. Was super fluffy

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, Jan 87 was good. Very active. 

Gotcha…just looked at Jan 87 and I see what you mean. EPS there indeed looks a bit like it. Looks like Jan did have some decent blocking but I initially overlooked because it wasn’t reflected in the seasonal mean 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

@Typhoon Tip

12/29/76 was an absolute whopper for the 128 belt down into N RI. It wasn't a super phased monster blizzard, but it produced a lot of 12-20" amounts in that corridor. That is the storm Ray loves because ORH was too far west and only got 4".

 

What was the frequency in the 25-31 period. 

My question was more around "repeater" ... You know?  Like there seems like there's a storm on the charts ever 3 years Feb 2-10 for example. Another one is Mar 9 -15 ...  Dec 1-7 ...   I'm sure there's been a storm on every date if we go back far enough.

It's just for muse but it didn't seem it.  I wasn't terribly cognizant of the world at in 1976 yet. haha

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there were two events that week.

There was a messy one right after...a few days later...parts of eastern CT had up to 8 inches before the scalping

[mahk_webstah]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just need to show a little more patience for snow going forward after this run of the mill Sou' easter comes thru here Monday

Not unusual, that the models that we were looking at two or three weeks ago were getting a little bit ahead of themselves, but had the right idea in the long run perhaps. But we’ll know soon enough.

[mahk_webstah]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

My amazon order arrived.........

Such a great read!

[Damage In Tolland]

Wildness

As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will
come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will
mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be
accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance
the wind threat.  Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately
hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and
accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern
PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT
River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential
is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be
able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from
this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into
Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat.

[J Paul Gordon]

May you be at the hypocenter and me on the farthermost outer edge of it. Of course, your neighbors (and your near and dear) may not feel as blessed as you with hurricane force gusts. 

[Lava Rock]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wildness

As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will
come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will
mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be
accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance
the wind threat.  Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately
hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and
accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern
PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT
River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential
is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be
able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from
this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into
Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat.

I'll enjoy the 5-10mph breeze here

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

 

My amazon order arrived.........

I have all of his books. Great studies

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wildness

As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will
come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will
mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be
accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance
the wind threat.  Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately
hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and
accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern
PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT
River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential
is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be
able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from
this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into
Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat.

Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape.

Pretty much comes down to track. How far west will it go to bring in more instability.  All the western leaning guidance is windier. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty much comes down to track. How far west will it go to bring in more instability.  All the western leaning guidance is windier. 

Yes of course. Messenger shifts and all. Unless this pulls an Isaias 

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wildness

As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will
come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will
mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be
accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance
the wind threat.  Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately
hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and
accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern
PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT
River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential
is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be
able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from
this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into
Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat.

They seem worried.

Nws 

"Another pleasant day is in store for Saturday with above normal temperatures and a mix of clouds and sun! Conditions deteriorate late Sunday into Monday as an efficient rainmaker brings drenching precipitation and gusty winds to southern New England."

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape.

Why use Euro?

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes of course. Messenger shifts and all. Unless this pulls an Isaias 

Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that 

[alex]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Brush fire in New Haven closing down a portion of 91. This wouldn't have happened if we had snow on the ground. 

Or a foot of water... 

[CoastalWx]

Clown maps!

[CoastalWx]

This is a deal where just inland probably has best gusts. I’ll take over in SE MA away from water.  

[CoastalWx]

What’s intriguing to me is that around 15-18z as LLJ cranks, lapse rates steepen in lower levels. So although max LLJ lifts out, the low is so wrapped up that slight CAA mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly. 

[Torch Tiger]

I am working in Scituate, MA Monday AM.  hope it's very very wild!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that 

Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s intriguing to me is that around 15-18z as LLJ cranks, lapse rates steepen in lower levels. So although max LLJ lifts out, the low is so wrapped up that slight CAA mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly. 

Love to see Scoots like this.  Love love love to see it 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west 

Final track is probably right up the Henry Hudson 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west 

1-2” in our hood with gusts tickling 45mph if everything breaks right?