40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We have enough meh’s and debbies here. The old George is needed, more fun, but he struck out the past couple winters calling for 48-60” apocalyptic blizzards so he’s swung the polar opposite to compensate. Unfortunately winter sits on the other end of his seesaw. I won't be surprised if something pops the last month of the week...I loved that week back in November, before the PAC jet swallowed half of December whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I won't be surprised if something pops the last month of the week...I loved that month back in November, before the PAC jet swallowed half of December whole. Looks to be in the cards. I assume you meant last week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks to be in the cards. I assume you meant last week of the month. Yep...same week 1993 got going, ironically enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep...same week 1993 got going, ironically enough. That was a pants tent storm. I think the call was 3-6". Got over a foot of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not by much... but more crucial, the wind balanced g-wind velocities are 35 kts or < That latter aspect speaks to the 'compressibility' of the flow - which may be a slopping way to describe whether the gradient speeds up as the S/W approaches, to a state that is too fast and shearing/absorption begins to rob from the total wave mechanics. It was always the combination of those two metrics: 582 and balanced geostrophic wind at or < 32 kts. But we can play with that. I mean, if the heights are 586 ( say ) but the gap between the isopleths is large and velocities are light, than as the S/W/intermediate wave space trough approaches the SE in general ... less in the way of absorption ensues. Contrasting, if the heights are 576 but the wind is already up around 50 kts, than that's negative too. Could you explain how you decipher that? Is it the barbs on the wind emblems? I guess this is where its abundantly clear that I am not a met by trade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That was a pants tent storm. I think the call was 3-6". Got over a foot of fluff. I think there were two events that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there were two events that week. Maybe an interior deal? I just recall that one event on 12/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe an interior deal? I just recall that one event on 12/29. That season was death by a thousand CJs for me...ugh. FU oscillation where it would go from ORH county to CJ.....CJ to ORH....I was always boned in Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 12z GEFS has the one at the end of the month, Now lets see if it remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...not denying AGW, but I stand by the fact you don't need to rival Feb 1934 to snow. 2015 actually beat that month, despite 61 years of AGW. You mean 81 years…lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro looks less enthusiastic for life threatening winds monday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Eyeballing it, but by end of this weekend I believe North America (including south Canada only) will be tracking close to a month behind in terms of snow cover (SWE). Kinda important to add a AN bias to surface temps until/unless this gap closes. Area covered by snow: Dec 15 2023: 18.7% Dec 15 2022: 42.3% Dec 15 2015: 37.4% December 2015 was paltry snow-cover in the CONUS but manpack across southern canada, especially vs this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 large signal showing up for Christmas week… cold air will be an issue but worth tracking with a SS vort this potent. the Canadian ridge can also force transient HP downstream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GEFS has the one at the end of the month, Now lets see if it remains. Eps had a similar h5 look after xmas. We’re going places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro looks less enthusiastic for life threatening winds monday. ASOUT 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Ha I thought the euro was impressive again at 12z. At least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: ASOUT EEDITT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ha I thought the euro was impressive again at 12z. At least here. Weak for WOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That season was death by a thousand CJs for me...ugh. FU oscillation where it would go from ORH county to CJ.....CJ to ORH....I was always boned in Wilmington. I got semi porked jn the Feb CJ where I was. I think I had like 16” or so, while 8 miles east had 30. Another one of those “will I ever see a two foot storm…” questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weak for WOR. Low over your Fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Only 330 hours until our next snow chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Low over your Fanny. I‘ll start boarding up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 CJ - is there an official term associated with this? I think over the years I've seen "coastal jack" and "cream jeans" however in todays usage, I'm assuming the former...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Take 60% the 925 winds? Maybe we tickle a 45mph gust for WOR away from water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Layman said: CJ - is there an official term associated with this? I think over the years I've seen "coastal jack" and "cream jeans" however in todays usage, I'm assuming the former...? Ray calls that area from about me down to Duxbury and just inland an ocean effect circle jerk. Usually if that happens, he’s sucking exhaust because the low is too far SE to really shove moisture towards his way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 This is certainly a grincher for the slopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Of course there has been some big events that nailed him and had CJs, but just an overall statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is certainly a grincher for the slopes All the memes of “snowy vibes” can’t help them now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Winds don't look to me to be very impressive away from SE MA or along the maine coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro still showing that weak signal around 12/23 too....verbatim it runs into a block and gets shoved SW....it's not a big system, but could be the last chance to whiten the ground before Xmas. 26 years ago was a pretty weak-ass looking system too.....lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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